Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271041
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
441 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT TOWARDS THE COLORADO BORDER AND
SPREAD EAST TOWARDS DIGHTON TO DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND BY DAWN.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH NEAR 3 INCHES AT
ELKHART. AREAS EAST OF MEADE AND GARDEN WILL ONLY SEE A TRACE OR A
LIGHT DUSTING THAT INCLUDES DODGE CITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, FROM MIDNIGHT TILL NOON FRIDAY, FOR
SNOW FOR THE FAR WEST 10 COUNTIES FROM GARDEN CITY TO MEADE AND
WEST. SOME 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP TOWARDS MORNING FROM
ELKHART TOWARDS LIBERAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND AROUND 7 TO 12 DEGREES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. WINDS PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN
THE FAR WEST NEAR ELKHART WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING POSSIBLE.

FOR FRIDAY, EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING, TO TAPER TO
FLURRIES WITH CLOUDY SKIES AS WEAK UPPER LIFT DECREASES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES. WINDS INCREASE, AS
COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY, WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THESE SYSTEMS EVOLVE, STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BE TURNING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME. AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAM WILL BE MIGRATING NORTH FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL TO BE OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56.
THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS SHOW CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
COMING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING EAST
OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE GFS MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND,
CONSEQUENTLY, A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS
REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, ANTICIPATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM BOTH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEMS
ARE AROUND 1-3 INCHES BUT THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED ADJUSTED UPWARD,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS
CORRECT.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS.
WARMER AIR WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE EVOLVES, THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN, OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TAKES OVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MODELS FOCUS A FEW INCHES OF SURFACE UPSLOPE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGEST THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE FAR
WEST AND MVFR MAY BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO EAST OF GCK. HOWEVER, A
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY OR LESS
THAN A MILE MAINLY AT EITHER GCK OR HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  12  28  23 /  60  60  70  50
GCK  20  12  28  22 /  70  60  70  50
EHA  20  11  32  24 /  80  60  70  30
LBL  21  13  30  26 /  80  60  70  40
HYS  21  11  26  20 /  10  40  60  60
P28  22  13  28  23 /  50  50  80  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
KSZ061>063-074>076-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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