Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050520
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 00Z SUNDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
EAST CENTRAL ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEING LOCATED NEAR THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AXIS
OVER EASTERN UTAH. A 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA TO WESTERN KANSAS. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +10C AT
DODGE CITY TO +16C AT DENVER. AN AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE WAS ALSO
LOCATED NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE +12 TO +14Z TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. A SURFACE AND 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES WITH MID 20C 850MB TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AT 00Z SUNDAY
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT 03Z A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WHERE WEAK 850MB-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WERE
LOCATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEBRASKA WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE I-
70 CORRIDOR WITH THE WAVE. 700MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
AROUND 12 CELSIUS WHICH MAY INHIBIT AN MCS FROM DEVELOPING. TIMING
OF THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE FROM 10 PM TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OUT OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP, SOME COULD BE NEAR SEVERE LIMITS WITH QUARTER TO
LARGER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXCEPT FOR INCREASING CLOUDS
WITH STORMS IN THE HAYS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 22
MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MILD AND FROM 68 TO 71 DEGREES.

FOR SUNDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  85  62  80 /  30  70  70  20
GCK  71  82  61  81 /  30  60  50  10
EHA  69  81  61  81 /  30  40  40  20
LBL  72  83  62  80 /  20  70  60  30
HYS  72  82  61  82 /  40  60  60  20
P28  74  89  66  79 /  10  70  80  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT


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