Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301722
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1122 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AT 12Z FRIDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. JUST EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS A
250MB JET STREAK STRETCHED FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET WAS APPEARS TO
BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AT THE 700MB WAS DRAWING WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO SOUNDINGS AT 12Z FRIDAY
INDICATED A DECENT DRY LAYER WAS LOCATED IN 850MB TO 700MB LAYER
BELOW THIS AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST
ALLOWING CLOUDY SKIES TO ENVELOP WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START TO FALL IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND LEADING TO VIRGA TO BE
OBSERVED. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVERNIGHT AS
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ONLY FALLING AS
DRIZZLE AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THIS IS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION COULD MIX OR TURN OVER TO SNOW
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOST LIKELY MELT ON
CONTACT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND FREEZING (32F).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS SLOWED A LITTLE, AND
WILL NOT CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRAGS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
EASTERN CWA SATURDAY, AND DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS
TO THE EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT`S SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-70, AND THE
MIDDLE 40S DOWN SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. SUNDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COLDER WITH CLOUDS, EARLY PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTING
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING INTO THE 18G28MPH RANGE.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITION FROM A NORTHWEST TO A
MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL START TO WARM
AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF KANSAS WILL REACH TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER IN THE GRIP
OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY
MAY BE THE NEXT GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS
TUESDAY WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AT
AROUND 10 MPH TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD CROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND BRING IN
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WITH IT. NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THERE MAY BE FEW FLURRIES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SUPERMODEL ONLY
PLACE 15 PERCENT POPS, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND I THINK
THAT IS ABOUT RIGHT. AN UPPER BROAD TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE MIDWEST, AND WE MAY SEE A LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE COLD
AIR SETTLING IN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GO INTO WARMING TREND, WITH THURSDAY`S
HIGH`S AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER
40S IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR SAINT JOHN AND PRATT. IF THE PATTERN
DOES NOT CHANGE, NEXT FRIDAY COULD BE IN THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE LAST SHIFT OF MY 34 YEAR CAREER.  IT HAS BEEN NICE.
SIGNING OFF....

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NAM AND RAP WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY WITH VFR CEILINGS
LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HRRR AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AT GCK AND DDC AROUND 21Z FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z SATURDAY AS SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS. AFTER 06Z CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATES. AT HYS MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOWARDS 06Z SATURDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  33  44  33 /  20  80  60  60
GCK  46  33  43  34 /  30  70  50  50
EHA  46  32  45  34 /  40  60  50  50
LBL  46  33  46  36 /  30  80  60  60
HYS  47  32  42  28 /  20  80  60  60
P28  47  34  44  38 /  10  70  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT


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