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000
FXUS64 KOUN 200231 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
931 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK THE REST OF THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD STILL BECOME SEVERE. UPDATED POPS/WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW
THOUGHTS ON AREA OF STORMS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

AVIATION... TSTMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL OK HAVE NOW MOVED E OF
TAF SITES. TSTMS  KPNC MAY STILL HAVE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF THE FRONT. FRONT
EXPECTED TO STALL LATER TONIGHT IN NRN AND WRN OK. TSTM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY AFTN AND EVENING EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DRYLINE
CONT TO WORK TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW DEVELOPMENT MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
THIS AFTN. 18Z SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED.
HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AND FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT RELATIVELY QUIET.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A TREND OF BEING A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH OF SFC FRONT INTO OR SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR TO NEAR I-44 BY MONDAY AFTN. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW
THE DRYINE ACTUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL DAY WITH SEVERE STORMS. FRONT WILL
THEN TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BRINGING A BIT
QUIETER WEATHER TO OKLAHOMA.

SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK... HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER AFTER
MONDAY WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW. AND PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  87  63  81 /  50  40  60  30
HOBART OK         63  92  60  83 /  10  20  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  97  66  85 /  20  40  40  20
GAGE OK           53  82  53  80 /  20  20  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     64  83  60  78 /  60  40  60  20
DURANT OK         71  88  69  83 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02