Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 180913
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
413 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN DEFORMATION ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-LEVEL LOW OVER
NEW MEXICO AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH. AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES OVER REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
PHASING WITH S/WV SAID TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT BRUSH NORTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. GFS
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
CLOSER TO ECM AND WRF SOLUTIONS.

MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED REST OF REGION UNTIL STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LATEST
ECM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PLAINS...YIELDING GREATER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY OVER AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE-35. POPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY
WITH LATEST INITIALIZATIONS AND SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  49  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         72  48  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  50  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           69  44  78  50 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  45  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         75  50  74  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11


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