416
FXUS64 KOUN 261726
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Heat index values up to 100 degrees, with a few areas of up to
  105 degrees.

- A few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.

- Rain and storm chances increase Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Light radar returns across western Oklahoma early this morning
are associated with a band of mid-level clouds. Surface
observations across West Texas and western Oklahoma indicate
ceiling heights are roughly 8-10k feet. There should be just
enough elevated instability (100- 150 J/kg) above this layer for
widely scattered showers to persist into the early/mid morning
hours today.

It appears that by early to mid afternoon, differential heating
should result in boundary layer thunderstorms.  Recent CAMs and more
particularly the HRRR, suggest this will occur from near Cherokee
southwest to Clinton and Frederick.  This seems plausible given the
current orientation of the clouds in western Oklahoma and their
movement. Regardless, afternoon storms are expected to form
within a weakly sheared environment with PWATs around 1.75+ (in.).
Instability is forecast to be around 2,000 J/kg, so pulse like
storms will be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. CAMs also
suggest a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may occur with the
stronger cores which could result in some temporary flooding,
especially urban areas. New storms will form along convective
outflow boundaries with perhaps a preference to the east. During
the early to mid evening, there will be a decrease in storm
intensity, but some of the precipitation will linger. Blended PoP
guidance remains rather high across western and northern Oklahoma
during the late evening/overnight. A little unsure about this, but
for now will leave as is.

Temperature will still be rather hot today, mainly lower 90s with
perhaps some mid to upper 80s where mid clouds are more persistent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Given the rather high PWATs and some hints of weak disturbances
skirting mainly northern Oklahoma, rain and storm chances Friday
into Saturday will not be zero.  Recent HRRR runs even suggest a
better potential for afternoon storms Friday across mainly southern
Oklahoma.  Day-to-day predictability can certainly be a challenge
within weakly shear/moist environments.  For now, it appears storms
will likely form Friday, but storm coverage will be isolated to
widely scattered. Heavy downpours and strong gusty winds are
possible with the stronger cores. Models still suggest weak
height rises will occur Saturday, so perhaps even fewer storms on
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Late weekend through the middle of next week, the stronger
westerlies will remain well north of the southern Plains.  A
shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Great Lakes
region, will push a weak front closer to northern Oklahoma by
Monday. It`s possible for storms to become organized enough across
the higher terrain Sunday afternoon that storms will enter
western and northern Oklahoma during the evening/overnight. A
decent low-level jet may help, as the mid-level flow will be
rather weak (mainly below 20 knots). With a weakness in the ridge
and a frontal boundary near/in the area, shower and thunderstorm
chances will remain in the 30-50% range at least Monday into
Tuesday. With the mid-level flow remaining rather weak, storms and
clusters of storms will have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. There is some indication
that a ridge may become better established by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through
the afternoon, gradually shifting eastward. Chances lessen tonight,
with redevelopment possible tomorrow. Winds will be mainly
southerly, sometimes shifting to southwesterly. Some gusts this
afternoon, but thereafter remaining light.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  91  74  93 /  20  30  10  10
Hobart OK         72  94  72  96 /  30  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10
Gage OK           68  93  70  95 /  50  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     71  91  72  93 /  40  30  20  10
Durant OK         73  92  75  94 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14