Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 240136
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EVOLVING HEAVY RAIN...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN SHORT... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT DUE TO THE WARM
SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN RESPONSE...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM EAST CENTRAL OK TO THE
OKC METRO... BACK TO SWRN OK AND INTO NRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. IT
IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS OR TRY
TO WALK OR PLAY IN FLOOD WATERS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
PLEASE HEED ALL FLOOD WARNINGS AND INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD FOR THIS EVENING... OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD... WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... BUT
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS AS ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. MANY RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES OF IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION. PLEASE BE CAREFUL. WILL CONT
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR... HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED
OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... HOWEVER THEY DO REMAIN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  72  62  80 / 100  90  20  30
HOBART OK         62  75  58  81 / 100  50  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  77  62  81 / 100  80  20  40
GAGE OK           59  76  56  82 /  40  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  73  61  81 / 100  80  30  20
DURANT OK         68  73  65  79 / 100 100  60  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



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