Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
236 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Latest satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows ongoing convection
across the far southeast portin of the area within a band of
relatively high moisture. A cold front is being driven eastward into
our area by a mid level shortwave trough over the central High
Plains. Forcing for ascent from this wave will primarily be north of
our area, but frontal convergence in a moist/unstable air mass will
result in thunderstorm development later this afternoon. This will
happen first in north-central Oklahoma and then build southward
along the front into southwest Oklahoma. Southward extent along
the front is still in question.

Forecast soundings show erroding convective inhibition by mid to
late afternoon across north-central Oklahoma. The steepest mid-level
lapse rates are near the bottom of the CAPE profile and become
weaker aloft, but this thermal structure aloft, with such a moist
and warm boundary layer, will yield moderate to strong instability
later today (MLCAPE ~2,500 to 3,000 J/kg). 0-6 km shear values of
around 30-35 knots should be marginally supportive of organized
storms including supercells, but stronger winds above 6 km in the
upper portion of the CAPE of around 40-45 knots near the Kansas
border. Further south, shear is comparatively weaker, but as stroms
consolidate and grow up scale this evening, a marginal wind threat
may persist late into the evening further south across central
Oklahoma. The large hail threat should mostly be limited to initial
late afternoon/early evening storms before storm mergers and upscale
growth occur.

Drier mid-level air evident in GOES-R 7.34 micrometer water vapor
imagery is spreading across much of the area. This has changed the
thermodynamic profile from yesterday, which was compartively more
moist and not quite as supportive of wind. The cells that moved
through Stillwater gained enough organization with mid-level MARC
signatures to support maybe some marginally severe wind, but the
activity further south was ineffective at producing severe-criteria
winds. Heavy rain was the primary threat. Min/max theta-e difference
in the vertical of ~40 Kelvin suggest a higher potential for
damaging downburst, even with initial development. This should
support fairly strong/rapid cold pool formation and as mentioned
above, a fairly quick evolution to linear structures by early/mid

Despite a little more dry mid level air and resultant entrainment,
heavy rainfall and localized flooding remains a threat, especially
in areas where Flash Flood Guidance is relatively low (i.e.,
saturated or nearly saturated ground from previous rainfall). Also,
a fairly progressive cold pool driven convective system should limit
duration and keep amounts from being too excessive. We decided to go
ahead and issue a flood watch to cover this potential threat from
north-central Oklahoma southward to the metro which received
significant rainfall amounts yesterday, and extending into portions
of southeast Oklahoma. We may need to adjust the counties included
slightly later this evening based on trends and how convection

Thunderstorms should decrease in intensity tonight and may linger
across our southeast counties tomorrow morning, but generally dry
conditions are expected tomorrow. Locally enhanced low-level theta-e
near remnant increasingly diffuse cold front close to the Red River
could support isolated thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon.
Coverage should be limited due to background mid-level height
rises/subsidence in the wake of departing shortwave trough.

Our attention then shifts westward to the New Mexico plains and
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A weak perturbation in the westerly
flow aloft may support convective development across this region
tomorrow afternoon with some consolidation/upscale growth likely
late in the day into the evening. Western portions of our area may
be impacted by thunderstorms late in the day and these could
continue eastward into central Oklahoma overnight.

The general trend this weekend and into early next week is for
strengthening mean ridging and mid-level height rises should lead
to a little drier pattern, though still some periods of at least
isolated/scattered convection. We left the previous forecast
mostly intact with only minor adjustments to a couple of periods.



Oklahoma City OK  90  71  91  71 /  20  70  10  50
Hobart OK         94  72  93  71 /  30  60   0  50
Wichita Falls TX  91  74  94  73 /  30  50  20  50
Gage OK           91  65  91  68 /  20  10  10  60
Ponca City OK     92  68  89  69 /  50  80   0  30
Durant OK         90  74  91  73 /  60  50  40  30


OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning
     for OKZ008-013-019-020-025-026-028>032-042.



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