Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241723
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NW OK...BUT LOW
PROBOABLILITY AND SPARSE COVERAGE IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL
PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN FCST. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH 14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

ISO -TSRA/-SHRA WILL DEVELOP 18-03Z WEST OF KEND-KSPS...BUT DID
NOT MENTION AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE...AND CONFIDENCE
OF A GIVEN SITE BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED REMAINS LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW 105 DEGREES SO
DID NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE. HIGHS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER TODAY AS WELL.

KEPT 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE/ISOLATED STORM WORDING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF A MEDFORD TO HOBART
TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE. FORCING FOR STORMS REMAINS WEAK...
HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THESE
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR A FEW SLOW MOVING PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS...BRIEF DOWNPOURS...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
MOST...IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY...SHOULD END NEAR SUNSET/8 PM.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN HOT AND MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT AND CAPPING
WEAKENS...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT TO ADD STORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS.

MBS

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS
STILL DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE
GFS FAVORING A MORE AGGRESSIVE FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND THE SLOWER ECMWF SHOWING FROPA ABOUT 24 HR LATER.
WITH THIS GAP IN GUIDANCE...HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF THESE TWO
MODELS. THIS WOULD FAVOR A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PLEASANT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRIER AND WARMER
FORECAST...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS THE FRONT AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE
DAYS...WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES. HAVE OPTED
TO LEAN A BIT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...AS PRESENCE OF STOUT BERMUDA
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LIKELY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR A
RAPID FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF STATES AS IS DEPICTED IN THE
GFS.

AUSTIN

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLIGHTLY
DECREASE THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100  72 100  72 /   0  10   0   0
HOBART OK        101  72 102  72 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX 103  73 102  73 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK          100  72 100  71 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK    100  73 100  73 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK        100  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/84/17


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