Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 152348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY CHALLENGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERALLY THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z.
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL BECOME MVFR OR
LOWER BY 12Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS...ARRIVING IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA 01-05Z...AND SOUTHEAST OF KSPS-KOUN BY 12Z.

BANDS OF -SN WILL DEVELOP AND BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES MAINLY 12-24Z. SN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO CAUSE CONDITIONS TO GO BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS AT TIMES. OTHER PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AS
WELL...BUT DID NOT MENTION AS HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE -SN.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 17Z.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS S/WV WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FORECAST TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY START MIXED WITH SLEET
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
MID-LEVEL COOLING INCREASES.

HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CLOSE TO H7 THERMAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED FG FORCING. A PERSISTENT BAND COULD PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF 4+ INCHES UP AROUND THE WOODWARD-CAMARGO-TO ENID AREAS BUT
MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THIS POTENTIAL. AS FAR AS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GOES...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY IS
FAIRLY SOFT...MEANING THE EVENING SHIFT COULD ADD OR SUBTRACT FROM
THE SOUTHERN EDGE BASED ON NEW DATA. THE 18Z WRF WAS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON AMOUNTS BUT SHIFTED SOUTHERN EDGE TO THE NORTH.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SENSIBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE ECM AND GFS LITTLE CHANGE AS
MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  30  19  34 /  10  80  10   0
HOBART OK         28  28  18  36 /  10  70  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  35  35  22  40 /  20  60  30   0
GAGE OK           19  27  14  34 /  40  80   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     25  27  14  30 /  20  80   0   0
DURANT OK         36  40  23  39 /  30  30  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     OKZ004>026-033>035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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