Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 162350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
550 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Have low confidence in the TAFs before 18 UTC Saturday, then high
confidence afterwards.

Generally think worsening conditions will occur across
Oklahoma and north Texas now through 14 UTC with the possible
exception of northwestern Oklahoma (KWWR and KGAG). Believe MVFR
and IFR conditions will generally form 03-07 UTC, then spread
north and eastward after 07 UTC. Even LIFR conditions are
possible, especially near KOKC, KOUN, KLAW, KHBR, KCSM 09-16 UTC.

RA will increase in coverage and intensity now through 09 UTC
then end west to east 09-14 UTC. Exact beginning times of -RA/RA
remain uncertain. Although -PL and TS are possible briefly at a
few sites, did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Improving conditions are expected after 14 UTC as drier air moves
into the TAF sites. A cold front will move through Oklahoma
and north Texas 12-21 UTC Saturday, bringing a wind shift to the
north/northeast as well as VFR conditions.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
After a seemingly endless period of little or no rain, there is
actually rain in the forecast! Unfortunately, however, part of
the area that needs it most (far northwest Oklahoma) is unlikely
to see any rain through the next seven days.

Low-level moisture is forecast to continue streaming northeast
from Texas into our Texas counties and southern/central Oklahoma
tonight into early Saturday, causing periods of light rain. At
least for the rest of the afternoon/early evening, there may be
patches of light sleet mixed in (based on recent reports).

Another cold front will pass through the region on Saturday, and
a similar setup will occur again Sunday night into Monday,
bringing another chance for rain to central/southern Oklahoma and
north Texas.

On Monday, there may be enough instability/lack of cap/vertical
wind shear to support a few severe thunderstorms. Right now, the
risk looks minimal, and confined mainly to the area east of
I-35/I-44 (roughly Ponca City to OKC to Wichita Falls). These
storms may last into the evening/overnight.

Things become less certain after Monday night, as model divergence
becomes more of a problem. There should, however, be a break in
the rain chances Thursday, after another cold front moves through
and dries out the atmosphere...but rain chances return Thursday
night in our eastern counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  59  38  62 /  80  10   0  10
Hobart OK         36  62  39  66 /  70   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  38  62  40  68 /  80  10   0  30
Gage OK           35  63  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     35  60  35  63 /  30  10   0  10
Durant OK         40  58  40  61 /  70  60   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/17/17



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