Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261704 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION...26/18Z TAF Discussion...
MVFR ceilings are expected to persist into the early afternoon
hours across portions of far western and northwestern Oklahoma,
impacting KGAG and KWWR. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to
persist. Only concern may be cumulus development this afternoon,
which may result in a few locations flirting with MVFR ceilings,
but overall, expect VFR to prevail. Generally, winds will remain
out of the south, a few gusts around 15 to 20 kts cannot be ruledout
for sites across southern central Oklahoma and western north Texas
this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening across western and northern Oklahoma,
but chances remain too low for any mention in the TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1059 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

This afternoon promises weaker instability and less vertical wind
shear than yesterday. However, there are strong indications that
scattered convection will develop again this afternoon. The most
likely area for development is generally the eastern and northern
portions of our forecast area. Both instability and shear diminish
quickly toward evening, and the convection will shift north along
with a retreating weak surface front.

The current forecast appears to handle all this well, and no
changes are planned for this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

Most of the convection has exited the area and the chance of
additional storms at TAF sites remains too low to mention at this
time. Otherwise, mainly expect VFR conditions expected with light
south to southeast winds.



Showers and thunderstorms continues to push through much of
western and northern Oklahoma early this morning and should
continue to push off toward the northeast as a shortwave in the
mid levels moves through the area. At the surface, a synoptic
surface boundary is still present, however it has become masked
by outflow from the convection, which currently is located near

Models lift effective surface boundary northward during the
day today, however this could be slowed by the morning
convection. Still expect boundary to lift to near or just north
of the Oklahoma Kansas border during the afternoon hours. This
boundary will once again be the main focus for redevelop of
convection later today. Sufficient instability and wind shear
remain in place for a few strong to severe storms, mainly across
northern Oklahoma this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Heavy rain will remain possible, however main focus for this will
be north of the area and do not anticipate extending the flood
watch beyond 12z this morning.

Another area to watch today will be across southeast Oklahoma.
A westward moving shear axis is forecast to move from western
Arkansas and eastern Texas westward into eastern Oklahoma. This
may lead to another area of more widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across east/southeast Oklahoma.

Beyond today, mid level flow weakens over the Southern Plains and
we become squeezed between better southwest flow just to our
northwest and developing easterly flow, which may impact parts of
southern and southeastern parts of the area. Although these two
areas appear to have the best chance for convection each day from
this week end into next week. Abundant moisture will remain in
place that the entire area will continue to have the potential to
see showers/thunderstorms each day. Mush of which will be driven
by small scale features that are difficult to forecast or
anticipate very far into the future.


Oklahoma City OK  70  91  70  91 /  10  20  10  20
Hobart OK         70  93  70  91 /  10  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  94  71  93 /  10  20  10  20
Gage OK           66  91  67  91 /  20  20  30  40
Ponca City OK     70  91  71  90 /  30  30  30  20
Durant OK         71  92  71  92 /  20  30  10  30


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