Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 280333 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX... TEMPS... CLOUD COVER...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH 03Z (10 PM CDT)... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGAN TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK. THE COLD FRONT SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EVENING... PRIMARILY IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE... 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE FRONTS PROGRESSION
OVERNIGHT... WITH IT BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS OK/KS. IN THE SHORT TERM... INCREASED PRECIP/WX ACROSS NWRN
OK OVERNIGHT AND ADJUSTED TIMING IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. ALSO INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO S/SE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MAY PROVIDE GAG/WWR WITH AN CHANCE
FOR TSTM. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY
MORNING AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. WILL ALSO MENTION TSTM AT
BOTH CSM/HBR FRIDAY AFTN AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
AND EAST. CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS IS
UNLIKELY. HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PANHANDLES MOVING TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THIS FRONT INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY /ALBEIT SLOWLY/ WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
STALLS IT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT... BUT DATA AT THE MOMENT SUGGEST THAT IT
WILL NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE PACKAGE AFTER
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  72  93  70 /  10   0  20  30
HOBART OK         97  74  95  70 /   0  10  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           99  73  93  65 /  10  50  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     91  72  90  68 /  10  30  20  30
DURANT OK         94  69  96  73 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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