Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201047 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
20/12Z TAFs. MVFR cigs will be seen at most terminals first 3 to 5
hours of forecast period with VFR expected thereafter. Gusty
northerly winds will be expected through much of the day,
becoming light and variable late this afternoon. Line of showers
and isolated TSRA expected to shift east of terminals early this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Band of elevated showers and storms will continue to progress
quickly eastward this morning, with no additional rain activity
expected in its wake. This activity should remain well below
severe levels. Widespread flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas will likely continue much of the day across portions of
south- central and southeast Oklahoma where rainfall amounts of 4
to 6 inches were common last evening. Some rainfall rate reports
were in excess of 7 inches per hour. Main stem river flooding will
also continue through the weekend and into early next week.

Influx of cooler and drier air will dominate the weekend before
modest moisture returns ahead of next s/wv trough that helps
amplify north central U.S. upper level cyclone. Surface reflection
will be passage of another front late Monday and early Tuesday.
Scattered showers and storms are expected ahead of and near
frontal boundary. Although there are questions to quality and
quantity of moisture return, northwesterly flow regime will yield
reasonable amounts of shear for strong to severe storm potential
late Monday and Tuesday.

Models diverge on mid-upper level pattern, with GFS the most
amplified, mid to late week so dry forecast will be issued.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  49  77  55 /  30   0   0  10
Hobart OK         73  48  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  51  80  57 /  20   0   0  10
Gage OK           69  46  78  54 /  10   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     69  46  75  55 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         74  54  80  57 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/11


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