Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 232057
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER TUESDAY AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

CURRENTLY... FAIRLY WARM THIS AFTN THE REGION AS SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SFC LOW CENTERED OVER WRN NM. EXPECT ELEVATED
SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC
LOW BEGINS TO LIFT E/NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AHEAD THE LOW... A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN KS
AND TOWARDS ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IN NRN OK AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED AND MAY CLIP FAR NRN OK.

THROUGH SUNRISE... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS W/NW OK THROUGH NOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TRICKY FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST... AS RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS THROUGH THE
AFTN... AFTER NW WINDS RELAX. AT THE MOMENT... WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH GOING FOR W/NW OK... FORGOING UPGRADING TO A RED FLAG
AS CRITERIA WINDS AND RH WILL NOT OCCUR IN SYNC TUE. WILL LET RB AND
SC MONITOR OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT... AS THE H500 SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS NE/KS TUE
AFTN... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ERN OK... WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SERN OK. WITH RECENT GUIDANCE...
IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF COAL... ATOKA AND
BRYAN COUNTIES; HOWEVER... ANY SMALL VARIATION IN FRONTAL
TIMING/POSITION... SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OK... WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL... UP TO
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS TO GOLF BALLS.

WEDNESDAY... TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
ISSUE... WITH THE 23/12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE... THE GFS REMAINS THE
MORE BULLISH... WITH THE ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE AND THE NAM LAGGING
BEHIND. WITH THAT SAID... WHICH DO YOU HANG YOUR HAT ON. WELL...
GIVEN IT IS MON... I WOULD NOT CHOOSE JUST ONE AT THE MOMENT. GIVEN
THE GOOD SPATIAL AGREEMENT AND THAT TIMING IS OFF BY 3 TO 4 HRS...
FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE TO CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF ALL THREE... UNTIL
WE GET BETTER CONTINUITY. EITHER WAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILE... ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LATE WED
AFTN/EVENING... QUICKLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINEAR SEGMENT OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS. STORMS WILL PRIMARILY POSE A HAIL THREAT... WITH
GOOD 0-3KM SHEAR AND HAIL CAPE OF 600 TO 1000 J/KG AVAILABLE. THIS
IS SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THU INTO
THE WEEKEND. WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
HIGHS ON FRI WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OK TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS NRN TX. LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING... LOWS MAY DIP
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK. TEMPS WILL
START TO WARM UP THROUGH SAT AFTN AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS... WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S BY SUN.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  80  53  77 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         55  80  49  78 /   0   0   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  85  53  83 /   0   0   0  20
GAGE OK           49  75  45  74 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  76  47  74 /  20  10   0  40
DURANT OK         56  80  57  77 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-005-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-084.

&&

$$


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