Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 212336
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
536 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RA AND SN TO MOST OF OK
AND N TX TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. +SN MAY OCCUR IN HEAVIER
BANDS...MOST LIKELY NEAR I-40 IN W OK. EXPECT RAPIDLY VARYING VSBY
AND CIG VALUES THRU THE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEREVER SN OR
RASN OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM ABOUT 15Z ONWARD
TOMORROW...AS CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVE FROM N TO S...ALTHOUGH
KHBR/KLAW/KSPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR IFR THRU AT LEAST 00Z
TOMORROW EVENING. KPNC SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE ENTIRE EVENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS TONIGHT/THURSDAY WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

MODELS HAVE CONT TO INDICATE AN EAST WEST BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITIONING OVERNIGHT TO MAINLY SNOW NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AN GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING IN WESTERN OK
WHERE SOME AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES SEEM LIKELY. FARTHER EAST
HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON CONSISTENT NATURE OF ALL THE
MODELS.

THIS BAND SHOULD THEN TRANSLATE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THURSDAY MORNING... AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO RAIN AS
SURFACE TEMPS WARM.

STILL APPEARS THAT THE SNOW THAT OCCURS FURTHER EAST... IN CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... MAY OCCUR AS A
BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW. THIS MAY INITIALLY ACCUMULATE WITH EVEN
SOME SLUSH ON AREA ROADWAYS... BUT THEN POSSIBLY MELT AS THE BAND
MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH WARMING TEMPS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY BY AFTN
ACROSS NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA. CLOUD COVER AND CONT PRECIP
EXPECTED TO CONT NEAR THE RED RIVER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING BACK IN WITH THE RAIN THERE. NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY WE SEE A RATHER QUICK WARM UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS... WHICH LOOKS TO BRING AIRMASS
OFF THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL HAVE WARMED FROM DOWNSLOPING
COMPRESSION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WARM
DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  34  42  28 /   0 100  40   0
HOBART OK         49  32  37  24 /  10 100  50  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  35  39  30 /  10 100  70  30
GAGE OK           41  28  38  17 /  80  80  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     49  33  44  23 /  10  20  10   0
DURANT OK         60  36  43  33 /   0 100  90  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR OKZ005-006-011-012-017>019-023>025-027>030-
     035>040-044-045.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ004-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033-034.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

17/23/23


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