Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 182332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL CLUSTER
OF STRONG STORMS...SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO OKC AROUND 00Z.

THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS DECREASE DURING THE LAST HOUR AND
STORMS/SHOWERS MAY NOT REACH OKC. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
NEAR WWR/GAG SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IF STORMS WILL IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DECAYING
STORMS...THINGS HAVE REALLY HEATED UP. TRIPLE DIGITS WERE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH
UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. RECENTLY...VIS SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 OR 50
MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE
MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S BENEATH BROAD RIDGING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 100
TO 105 DEGREE RANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS...MAKE SURE YOU DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS. OTHERWISE...STAY INSIDE IF YOU CAN! GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE SFC BOUNDARIES...WILL
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO COULD OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE.

FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN IN RESPONSE
TO SEVERAL UPPER WAVES/FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR A SOUTHERN PLAINS FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE WAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  98  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         71  99  73  98 /   0  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  98  74 101 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           69  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     73  97  74  97 /  40  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  97  74  96 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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