Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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122
FXUS64 KOUN 211955
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Above-average temperatures will continue through Friday as the
Southern Plains remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge.

As the ridge shifts to the east, a high-amplitude trough will
approach the Plains by late Friday with increasing ascent spreading
across the area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms
Saturday into Sunday. A cold front associated with the trough will
pass through the area Sunday, bringing seasonably cool
temperatures in its wake.

Progged precipitable water values of 1.7-1.8" (>90th percentile
climatologically) and warm cloud depth >10,000 ft suggest
thunderstorms should be efficient at producing rainfall.
Therefore, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall that may lead
to localized flooding.

Beyond Sunday, there is some uncertainty on the evolution of the
trough. Both the ECMWF and GFS develop a cut-off low; however, the
location of the cut-off low is uncertain. However, the sensible
weather impacts looks somewhat similar with cooler temperatures
and at least a slight chance of showers. The extent of how cool
will be modulated by the eventual location of the cut-off low.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         69  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           69  92  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         67  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/10



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