Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 120007
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
707 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Clouds will increase through the evening over western Oklahoma and
rain and thunderstorms are expected after 120500. Thunderstorms
and rain are expected to persist into much of Saturday and also
expand south and east toward central Oklahoma shortly before
sunrise Saturday. MVFR conditions will generally exist once rain
and thunderstorms arrive.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The morning MCS has left behind somewhat cooler conditions, with
insufficient instability (or focusing mechanisms) to generate any
thunderstorms so far this afternoon. With another couple of hours
of heating available, though, we cannot rule out some isolated or
scattered storms before sunset. By far the greater chance, though,
will come early Saturday morning, as an expected MCS approaches
from the Texas Panhandle, then spreads/moves east into much of
Oklahoma Saturday morning. Additional storms are then expected to
form in the afternoon, and severe storms seem like a good bet into
the evening, especially across the southern half of our forecast
area.

With high amounts of moisture and widespread convection in the
forecast, we will continue the Flood Watch that was issued
earlier. No changes have been made to the watch, as it appears
that the previous + expected rainfall amounts will be most
"floodworthy" within the existing watch outline.

A generally zonal flow aloft, with hard-to-predict minor embedded
shortwave troughs, will be the rule for the remainder of the
forecast period. So...that means generally 20 to 40% PoPs through
late next week.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  81  70  84 /  30  60  80  50
Hobart OK         72  84  69  87 /  40  70  80  40
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  73  91 /  20  60  70  40
Gage OK           68  74  64  83 /  60  90  60  30
Ponca City OK     68  79  67  80 /  10  30  50  40
Durant OK         73  91  73  87 /  20  40  80  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

26/09/09



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