Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 202343
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
643 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CIGS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AS A FRONT REMAINS PARKED SOUTH OF TERMINALS...AND
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER THIS FEATURE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP AT KSPS.
ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. WITH SFC HEATING...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME THURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST. YES... THIS IS A BIT OF A
BROKEN RECORD. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREA THAT
WE WILL LIKELY SEE REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THESE MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOMORROW ADVECTING MOISTURE BACK UPHILL
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP... FORM A COMPLEX AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. AND AGAIN... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAIN TO CREATE
FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERED HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND... BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE NEXT IN THE LONG SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH YET MORE RAIN
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  66  54  64 /  20  10  60  70
HOBART OK         51  65  52  65 /  20  10  70  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  67  56  71 /  40  20  70  70
GAGE OK           46  64  49  64 /  10  10  70  40
PONCA CITY OK     47  66  50  64 /   0   0  40  70
DURANT OK         55  69  58  69 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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