Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 251115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

PATCHY MVFR WITH BR WILL OCCUR AT A FEW SITES...PARTICULARLY KLAW
AND KPNC...THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RECORD HEAT THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.

TODAY...SUNNY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SEEMED REASONABLE...THOUGH
THE 00Z METMOS/NAM12 APPEARED TO BE TOO HOT. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ON SUNDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
COMPARED TO TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOST MODELS SUGGESTED
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM12 SEEMED TO BE OUTLIER WITH WIDESPREAD
QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL NOT RECEIVE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MAY BE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT HIGHS
MAY AGAIN BE NEAR RECORDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY LINGER NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 25

OKLAHOMA CITY 87 1939/1891
WICHITA FALLS 92 1927

SUNDAY OCTOBER 26

OKLAHOMA CITY 92 1891
WICHITA FALLS 93 1950

MONDAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           90  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         89  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/17/17



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