843
FXUS64 KOUN 140151
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
851 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Added a low chance of showers/storms across northwest Oklahoma
for this evening. Also increased the chance of showers/storms for
the overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms have developed across the
Texas panhandle in response to isentropic ascent (most evident on
315 K surface) and a subtle shortwave.

Most short-term numerical guidance indicates this ascent will
spread northeastward into northwest Oklahoma this evening into the
overnight as a 40 to 45 knot low-level jet develops across the
area. Most convective-allowing models (HRRR/HRRRX/HRW NMMB/HRW
WRF-ARW) have a persistent convective signal coincident with this
ascent.

Therefore, opted to add a low chance of showers/storms for this
evening (after 03Z) and increased the chances for the overnight
hours (after 06Z) across northwest Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
No longer expecting any MVFR cigs for late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. It appears most of the cloud cover will be mid
to high. Winds will return from the ESE and SE through the
overnight hours and then increase from the south late tomorrow
morning. Some gusts could exceed 25 kt. Will likely introduce
tempo TSRA in the 06Z TAFs for most OK terminals tomorrow
evening thru early Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  89  52  64 /   0   0  90  10
Hobart OK         69  87  51  66 /   0   0  90  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  90  56  68 /   0   0  80  20
Gage OK           63  85  44  64 /  40  50  50   0
Ponca City OK     65  88  50  64 /   0  40  90  10
Durant OK         70  89  58  67 /   0   0  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/03