Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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340
FXUS64 KOUN 191722
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1222 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The July 19, 2016 1800 UTC TAF discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions generally are expected to continue across all
terminals through the TAF period. Scattered to broken cumulus will
continue to develop through the afternoon, especially across
central Oklahoma. There is an outside possibility of a
shower/storm near KOKC/KOUN/KLAW where there is greater vertical
growth of the cumulus field (which could briefly drop a terminal
to MVFR conditions); however, the probability is too low to
include in the TAFs. Otherwise, expect southerly winds to continue
with some diurnal fluctuations.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

AVIATION...
1912/2012 TAFS...

HIGH CLOUDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 256 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The center of a mid/upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary
through the end of the week. Therefore, persistence
forecasting seems reasonable with minor tweaks each day. The
NAM12 warms 85h temperatures about 2C through Thursday/Friday
with 85h winds becoming more southwesterly.

The gradual warming should also coincide with near surface
drying (not as humid). This will help offset a rise in afternoon
heat index values by the end of the week.

However, heat index values yesterday exceeded 105 degrees across
part of north central Oklahoma. Therefore, will likely issue a
heat advisory for this area for today, which should match well
with advisories already in place to our north and east. It`s
certainly possible that the advisory may be extended in time and
space.

Late in the work week and over the weekend, a trough will move from
the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. As this occurs,
the ridge may retrograde enough to allow for northwest flow
aloft.  By late Saturday into Sunday, a weak surface boundary is
expected to move across Kansas and perhaps as far south as northern
Oklahoma. The front may help with the development of isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Will also mention of slight chance of an afternoon shower/storm
across far southeast Oklahoma or the higher terrain of Atoka
county.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         96  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  96  75  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           97  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     96  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         95  75  98  75 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     019-020-026.

TX...None.
&&

$$

30/10/10



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