Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 062343
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the next 24 hours.

Northerly surface winds will weaken by 01 UTC then increase
06-12 UTC across the area. The winds will become gusty at most
sites 12-16 UTC, before diminishing after 19 UTC.

A few patches of MVFR/VFR ceilings 2500-8000 ft AGL are possible
mainly across the northwestern half of Oklahoma 06-21 UTC. Did not
mention due to very low confidence of occurrence.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast issues are cold temperatures and wind chills for
tomorrow.

A secondary, reinforcing cold front will enter northern Oklahoma
tonight as a high-amplitude shortwave trough rotates across the
Plains. The air mass behind this cold front is the coldest so far
this season with 850 mb temperatures progged to be -7 to -11C for
Thursday afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon are
forecast to be in the mid-30Fs to low 40Fs, which is 15-20F below
average.

BUFKIT forecast soundings indicate a well-mixed boundary layer with
925 mb winds ~25-35 knots in the morning. Consequently, breezy
winds are expected--especially across the southern half of
Oklahoma and north Texas. Opted to increase wind speeds above
blended guidance for Thursday morning based on the aforementioned
analysis. With breezy northerly winds, wind chills will be in the
teens in the morning.

For Friday morning, a cold one is expected with light winds and
mostly clear skies (for most locations). The exception is
northwest Oklahoma, where clouds may increase toward morning. Lows
temperatures are expected to be in the teens to low 20Fs. Opted
to go toward slightly colder guidance with the dry air mass in
place. By Friday afternoon, it will be warmer as the surface ridge
shifts eastward.

The warming trend will continue into the upcoming weekend as a
westerly, downslope flow advects eastward into the Southern Plains.
This will result in temperatures above average by Sunday afternoon.

Another cold front will pass by on Monday as a shortwave rotates
across the Great Lakes. The Southern Plains will be on the western
periphery of the cold air, with the coldest air remaining across
the Great Lakes region and the eastern contiguous United States.
Therefore, this front may only cool temperatures slightly for
Monday and especially Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon
are currently forecast to be near average.

Warmer temperatures are expected again on Wednesday with a return
to downslope flow to the west.

The persistent northwesterly flow aloft will keep precipitation
chances near zero and a dry air mass in place through the
forecast period. This will result in elevated fire weather
conditions--especially for the weekend into early next week with
warmer temperatures.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  25  36  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         25  39  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  29  40  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           19  37  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     22  35  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         31  39  24  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/17



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