Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181821
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1221 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Ceilings in the upper range of MVFR will shift east this
afternoon, leaving the TAF sites from KOKC/KOUN/KPNC westward in
wide-open VFR, and generally clear skies are expected from about
23Z onward. The strong northwest winds will diminish slowly this
afternoon, but as the surface pressure gradient slackens and
vertical mixing decreases around sunset, wind speeds should drop
very quickly. Expect light and variable winds overnight, with a
return to southwest breezes on the western side of the surface
high pressure ridge (over northwest and far western Oklahoma)
tomorrow morning.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will be possible from 12-15Z at PNC/OKC/OUN,
otherwise, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Clouds with VFR ceilings will move across northern Oklahoma
this morning, with a few light rain showers or sprinkles
possible.

Strong northerly winds behind a front will gusts over 40 knots
at times mainly into the early afternoon. A light northwest
wind is expected this evening and overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
After record high temperatures yesterday, a cold front will usher
in much cooler and drier air to the southern Plains. The front,
currently located across northern Oklahoma, will clear all of
Oklahoma and western north Texas by mid morning. With cold
advection and mixing, post-frontal wind gusts will average 45 to
50 mph, with higher gusts possible. High clouds will generally
thin and move southeast through the morning with some low cloud
development likely behind the front. Low cloud develop will mainly
occur across northern and perhaps central Oklahoma, but will
likely last only a few hours at any location.

Although temperatures will be much cooler today, very strong winds
and low afternoon humidity will result in elevated to near-
critical fire weather conditions.

The wind will quickly decrease after 4 pm and with very dry air and
clear skies, freezing temperatures will be possible by sunrise Sunday.
Most areas experienced a hard freeze in late October, so no frost
or freeze warnings will be issued.

A south wind will return during the day Sunday and will become rather
breezy on Monday. With relatively dry air still in place, elevated
fire weather conditions will likely develop Monday afternoon.

A clipper-like system will push another cold front across the southern
Plains on Tuesday. This will mainly result in near to slightly below
average temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday.

A south wind will bring another warming trend Thursday into Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  32  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         59  31  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  34  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           55  29  61  37 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     57  29  57  36 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  37  59  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

23/30/23



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