Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231724
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER W/N OK...WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BR/FG IN W OK
EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE IN CONFLICT WITH THE FORECASTS
FOR WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW. CANNOT RULE
IT OUT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT IT WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
S/SE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND UPDATED POPS.

DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE TRENDING LOWER WITH TODAYS MAX TEMPS. WITH THE
LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...OPTED TO LOWER TEMPS. SHOWERS ARE
ALL BUT OUT OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONT TO MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE PRECIP WITH IT
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTN.

UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPS
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW ARE GOING
WITH NEAR RECORD/RECORD TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONT TO DIFFER
WITH THIS NEXT UPPER TROUGH AS GFS MAINTAINS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND OPEN WAVE... WHERE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED... TRIES TO
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW OFF NEAR THE AREA AND MAINTAINS PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SEE MORE TYPICAL MID/LATE OCTOBER
TEMPS WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  57  86  59 /  10   0   0   0
HOBART OK         78  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  58  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           76  53  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     75  56  85  57 /  10   0   0   0
DURANT OK         76  56  83  60 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23/23



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