000
FXUS64 KOUN 221133
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS (30-40KT) AROUND 2-3K FT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL HELP OFFSET THE POTENTIAL OF DENSE GROUND
FOG. IN THE SHORT TERM...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CREATE SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY SUNRISE...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

RIDGING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER NICE CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AND WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT ALONG WITH MOISTURE.

STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY... WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS NEAR A DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN
OK/EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE MAY
BE WIDELY SCATTERED...BUT THOSE THAT FORM...WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE FRONT MAY INCREASE
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE....AS WELL AS STORM
INTENSITY.

EXCEPT LINGERING STORMS THURSDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY.

A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ELEVATED STORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS.

VERY WARM 8H TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY. STRONG HEATING/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN STORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DGEX
IS SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND DEVELOPS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS
CAN ORGANIZE...A COMPLEX MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FA BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0   0  40
HOBART OK         81  54  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  56  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  56  83  51 /   0   0  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     76  52  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  82  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$