000
FXUS64 KOUN 031005
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE... FOG... AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE
FA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD AIR AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
WOULD LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN. IF SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
WHERE A POSSIBLE BAND DEVELOPS DUE TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT
TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL DATA SINCE WOULD NOT LIKELY NEED ONE
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING
CRITERIA SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY DESPITE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK FRONT AFFECTING PARTS OF THE
REGION. MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO PART OF THE FA
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER... THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT IN THE FA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WARM LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM
TO AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  59  26  27  18 /  20  60  70  20
HOBART OK         59  25  27  17 /  20  60  70  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  32  32  21 /  20  70  70  30
GAGE OK           53  18  25  11 /  10  50  70  10
PONCA CITY OK     54  20  26  14 /  20  30  70  10
DURANT OK         59  34  35  24 /  40  80  90  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/25