Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 300416 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1116 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

A broken line of thunderstorms will continue to slowly build
eastward along a weak boundary, impacting TAF sites across central
and northern Oklahoma through the early portion of the period.
Across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas, scattered
rain and thunder will continue across the region as well. So far,
broken to overcast mid to high ceilings continue to persist across
much of the region. Periods of MVFR and IFR ceilings could
develop through the morning hours, most likely across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Thunderstorm chances will exist
through the period, however, confidence in coverage and timing are
too low for a mention at this time in any TAF, especially now that
storms have moved east of KOKC and KOUN.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

A large storm cluster developed this evening across north Texas
and adjacent parts of southwest Oklahoma. This storm cluster is
expected to shift mainly toward the south, and perhaps spread
toward the east, overnight. This should keep the majority of
severe storms/flooding along our southernmost border area, and
points south.

Additional small/isolated showers and thunderstorms have been
popping up at times this evening across central Oklahoma, a few of
which may be severe. These storms are expected to continue to pop
up occasionally, but should decrease gradually with time.

Have updated the forecast to account for the current conditions
and latest trends. Further updates are likely overnight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

An active aviation period can be expected through tomorrow.
Thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle will slowly build into
western and southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas this
evening. Additionally, broken to overcast mid to high ceilings
will continue to build in from the west through the evening and
overnight. Sites impacted from thunderstorms could easily see
drops to MVFR or IFR at times this evening and overnight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

Complex convective forecast continues with little help from any
model consistency or model agreement. Main area for convective
impacts first period will be far western and southwest parts of
Oklahoma and western north Texas as storms over Texas Panhandle
tries to build east and southeast near edge of West Texas
instability axis. Other areas of potential concentration will be
south-central and southeast Oklahoma where slightly better
moisture resides near weak outflow boundary. An outflow boundary
from northern Oklahoma convection will also move slowly south
toward the I-40 corridor of central Oklahoma and could be a focus
for at least isolated thunderstorms. Majority of heavy rain will
likely be west of the body of Oklahoma and western north Texas but
eventual eastward progression of any MCS may affect southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas tonight. At this point we are
not issuing a flood watch but slow moving storms tonight will
yield the threat for heavy rain.

Wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday before drier
and cooler air filters in behind seasonably strong cold front.
Convection Tuesday and Wednesday associated with this front will
likely yield the greater threat for widespread heavy rain and need
for flood watches.


Oklahoma City OK  65  81  64  81 /  20  40  30  60
Hobart OK         63  83  65  82 /  60  40  40  60
Wichita Falls TX  66  84  66  83 /  60  40  40  50
Gage OK           61  83  62  80 /  40  30  40  70
Ponca City OK     65  81  64  81 /  30  40  30  60
Durant OK         67  84  67  83 /  40  40  20  30


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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