Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.


VFR conditions are expected to continue.

North to northeast surface winds will weaken 22-24 UTC, then
slowly switch to the south/southeast.

There is an outside chance for brief MVFR conditions and BR at
some sites 09-14 UTC. Did not mention due to low confidence of



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1056 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

Updated temperature/dew point/wind/sky forecast based on current

Opted to lower high temperatures slightly, especially across
northwest Oklahoma, where there is appreciable cold air advection.
Otherwise, there were no significant changes to the forecast.
Expect abundant sunshine, seasonably cool temperatures, with
decreasing northerly winds toward this evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/

Convection may linger across the far southeast portion of the area
early this morning but will shift east shortly after sunrise. A
cooler post frontal air mass will keep temperatures near or
slightly below normal for mid October. As elongated surface high
moves over the area tomorrow night, light or calm winds will
probably mean some locations will drop below the model consensus,
and so we once again adjusted lows downward closer to statistical
guidance. We will monitor trends but it is not out of the question
that a few locations, particularly in north central Oklahoma,
could drop into the mid-upper 30s resulting in patchy frost.

Comparing the last several runs of deterministic and ensemble mean
guidance for the weekend shows little change of amplitude/position
of mean ridging. Above normal temperatures will return this
weekend and continue into next week. Trends in the last several
runs are for a more amplified ridge Monday into Tuesday just east
of us continuing the pattern of above normal temperatures. Over
the past few runs and among the medium range guidance suite there
are varying degrees of mid-level height falls and amplification of
transient shortwave trough on Tuesday. Tuesday/Tuesday night we
have continued low probabilities of precipitation, but confidence
is not particularly high given the differing model solutions. But,
low level moisture return is robust especially for late October,
and at least weak ascent may trigger some convection late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. A more pronounced trough approaches late
Thursday and this may lead to increasing rain chances late in the





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