Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231522
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1022 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Winds are expected to strengthen this afternoon with wind gusts
over 40 mph in some areas. The strong winds will likely continue
into at least this evening. Will keep current configuration of the
wind advisory although there is a chance that the start of the
stronger winds will be delayed a little bit due to the clouds
slowing down mixing.

Made adjustments to dewpoints, wind, and sky cover to show current
trends. All updates out soon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will likely develop at most TAF sites for several
hours this morning, especially after sunrise. VFR conditions are
expected by late morning with a strong and gusty wind.
Thunderstorms are expected to form across the Panhandles late
this afternoon and evening. Storms may move across mainly
northwest Oklahoma by late evening (WWR/GAG). A very strong low
level jet this evening/overnight may produce low level wind shear,
but surface winds may remain strong enough.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A more active weather pattern will begin to influence the
southern Plains over the next 7-10 days.

The first trough/upper low will approach our area today into
tonight and will move across Oklahoma on Friday.  As a result,
strong southerly winds can be expected today into tonight.
Frequent wind gusts over 40 mph (plus) are likely, especially
along and west of Interstate 40. A Wind Advisory will be issued
for this area. Strong wind gusts may last well into the overnight
period, but for now will run the advisory through midnight. Rather
strong winds are expected again on Friday, but will not issue a
wind advisory at this time. The focus will shift to fire weather
conditions and the chance of severe storms on Friday.

Strong to severe storms will also be possible this evening into
the overnight, mainly across western Oklahoma. Better chances of
severe weather will be across the Panhandles from late afternoon
through late evening. Instability will decrease during the
evening, so storm intensity and coverage should decrease as
thunderstorms enter western Oklahoma.

Much drier air will enter western Oklahoma and western north Texas
early Friday behind a dryline/cold front. Models differ on how
quickly the dry air moves east and how dry the air will be. There
is enough of a chance for rather dry air, humidity at or below 20
percent, to be in place with rather strong winds (gusts over 40
mph). A Fire Weather .DISCUSSION...

Texas, southwest Oklahoma, and parts of central/ north central
Oklahoma.

Severe thunderstorms will also be possible Friday afternoon,
especially across southeast/eastern Oklahoma.

Shortwave ridging Saturday will bring a period of quiet weather
before another trough approaches the area on Sunday. How much
moisture will return ahead of this system is somewhat uncertain.
However, enough instability will be present for a risk of severe
storms Sunday afternoon/early evening.

Another trough will begin to influence our weather around Tuesday
and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  60  76  47 /   0  50  30  10
Hobart OK         82  56  75  44 /   0  50  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  60  80  47 /   0  40  10   0
Gage OK           84  52  67  39 /  10  70  10  10
Ponca City OK     79  62  77  48 /  20  40  40  20
Durant OK         80  60  77  50 /   0  30  70  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for OKZ007-012-017>019-022>025-027>029-033>040-044-045.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ004>019-021>025-
     027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
     for TXZ083>090.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

25/12



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