Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200825
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF A WICHITA FALLS TO ENID LINE. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
OR DENSE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM. ALSO...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLE
MENTION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS LATEST
RADARS INDICATED VERY LIGHT ECHOES FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THESE AREAS.

RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED/REMOVED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEPT 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OF A SAYRE TO WICHITA FALLS
LINE...CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE
LOCATIONS TODAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...THINK
CAPPING WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY. PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT THAT COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SPARSE AND NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY THEN
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERALLY...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO
UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT THROUGH THURSDAY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  67  88  60 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         89  67  89  61 /  10  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  68  91  64 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           89  63  83  56 /  10  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  84  56 /  10  20  20  10
DURANT OK         90  69  91  64 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



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