Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 100436
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1036 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Ceilings 030-050 will exist over the central part of OK from TX to
KS much of the night and into Saturday morning. South winds will
increase Saturday morning with gusts developing by late morning.
Moderate south winds and gusts will continue Saturday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 939 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

UPDATE...
The low clouds were able to clear out of western portions of the
FA late this afternoon and evening before the high clouds moved
over the area. This allowed temperatures to already fall to near
or at forecasted lows. With the clouds moving back into the areas
where skies had cleared, the falling temperatures could slow down
some. Elsewhere, the clouds have limited any drop in temperature
this evening so have made very little to no adjustments to the
forecasted lows. The sky cover grids have been adjusted to account
for the current cloud cover and trends. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good. All updates out soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Low clouds, mostly giving VFR ceilings, will persist and likley
expand north into northwest Oklahoma overnight. Some areas in
western Oklahoma could experience conditions slighlty below VFR
ceilings early Saturday. South winds will increase and become
gusty Saturday during the daytime.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is the the timing and the chance of
precipitation with a strong cold front next Wednesday.

For tonight, remnant cloud cover and southerly winds should
prevent temperatures from cooling off as much as last night for
most locations.

A warming trend is expected to begin tomorrow as a warmer airmass
from west shifts eastward. Expect gusty southerly winds with
highs in the upper 40Fs and 50Fs. Consequently, wind chills will
stay in the 30Fs/40Fs for most locations even with the warmer
temperatures. Isentropic ascent may result in isolated
showers/drizzle Saturday night into Sunday morning--especially
across southeast Oklahoma.

Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday--especially
across the southern half of Oklahoma and adjacent western north
Texas. West to southwest low-level flow and 850 mb temperatures
near 13C should allow some locations to reach the near 70F Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, expect a dry cold frontal passage Sunday
afternoon. The airmass behind the cold front Sunday should be
seasonable with high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday in the
50Fs for most locations.

By Wednesday, another strong cold front is expected to pass by
the area. The greatest uncertainty is the timing of the front.
The 09/12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree with timing with the
front. For now, trended toward the faster solution of the GFS as
the solution is closer to the 09/06Z DGEX solution. Consequently,
falling or steady temperatures are expected across most locations
during the day Wednesday. Also opted to increase wind speeds
beyond blended guidance as the models tend to underestimate
surface winds in strong cold air advection regimes.

The chance of precipitation with the front looks low; however,
the GFS and DGEX (with the faster/shallower airmass) do indicate
some warm air advection above the shallow, cold airmass. Forecast
soundings indicate this could result in light freezing rain or
even sleet behind the cold front on Wednesday--especially across
north central Oklahoma. Introduced low chance of precipitation for
now across the north. In either scenario, expect a cold and dry
day on Thursday with high temperatures likely staying in the 30Fs.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  27  48  40  61 /   0   0  10  10
Hobart OK         26  49  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  30  53  44  69 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           23  49  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     23  46  38  55 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         30  49  42  68 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/09/09



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