Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221725
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The September 22, 2016 18 UTC TAF discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
South to southwest winds are expected to weaken and back to the
south to southeast by this evening.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Warm and humid, but otherwise uneventful, weather will continue
today.

The current forecast looks good, and no updates are planned for
this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The forecast is still basically on track in the short term with
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop late Friday night or
early Saturday and spread across the area Saturday then persisting
through Sunday or Monday.

Early next week though, the forecast gets murky with another round
of model roulette this morning. All models are less progressive
with the system`s departure from the Plains, and the ECMWF is back
to a solution of cutting off a closer low in the southwest U.S.
through mid week. The GFS is less progressive than yesterday, but
does not cut off a southwestern low. If the current ECMWF
verifies, higher POPs may be warranted across the area next week
with a moisture feed over the frontal surface, but with the poor
run-to-run consistency and variable solutions among the medium
range models, it is difficult to get very specific.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  68  90  71 /   0   0  10  10
Hobart OK         91  68  91  72 /   0   0  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  93  70  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           92  66  90  69 /   0   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     91  68  91  72 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         92  69  92  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/10/10



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