Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 302345 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED OR REMOVED POPS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
SOME FORCING STILL PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES HELPING TO INDUCE MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...WILL
LEAVE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN NE OF GAG/WWR EARLY THIS EVENING. FEEL
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WED. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OR
DROP OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT FROM SSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR. VFR WILL APPLY AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP IN NW PARTS OF THE FA DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN OK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND
DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT. A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST ALSO REMAINS DRY AFTER THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  68  80 /  10  10  40  30
HOBART OK         66  91  66  80 /  10  10  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  71  85 /  10  10  20  20
GAGE OK           59  89  57  73 /  30  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  88  65  77 /  30  30  50  30
DURANT OK         67  90  71  85 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/03



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