Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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586
FXUS64 KOUN 050443
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
0506/0606 TAFS...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A COOL, MAY NIGHT
IS EXPECTED AS LIGHT WINDS AND FALLING DEWPOINTS IMPACT THE AREA
UNDER A SURFACE RIDGE. DID INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY NEAR THE RED
RIVER/W N TX WHERE DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AVIATION...
0500/0524 TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 0524. A LIGHT NORTH WIND
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE SATURDAY. A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY AND DEPTH ON SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT TO BE DIMINISHED BY THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY AS A
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WITH GREATER MOISTURE QUALITY AND DEPTH AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY.

WITH MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN PLACE...THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY DEPEND ON THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE. THE WIND
PROFILE WILL BE SENSITIVE TO THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND ITS IMPACT ON
THE TROUGH EJECTION INTO THE PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THERE TO
BE SOME VARIATIONS/SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO
SUNDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AS A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW APPROACHES THE
REGION.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WHERE ANY CHANCE OF STORMS AND
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUESDAY.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  52  78  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         52  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           51  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     47  78  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         52  77  53  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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