Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The 06Z aviation discussion follows....


Surface low pressure over northwest Oklahoma will shift east
overnight and Sunday, resulting in a complicated wind pattern
across Oklahoma. North of the track of the low (KPNC, KWWR,
KGAG), winds will shift gradually from NE to NNW by tomorrow
afternoon, and speeds will increase gradually as the low moves
away to the east. South of the low, winds will be mainly variable
overnight, then turn NW by morning, and increase in speed. A batch
of light/moderate rain and low clouds + restricted visibilities
will work its way east across Oklahoma late tonight and Sunday
morning, mainly north of KLTS-KLAW-KADH. Some fog is possible over
the eastern half of Oklahoma overnight as well. Clearing will
occur by early afternoon at all TAF sites, and winds will diminish
toward sunset.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 948 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

Increased POPs north of I-40 tonight and also near the I-40
corridor tomorrow morning as upper system slowly shifts east. Also
lowered temperatures west and southwest CWA as light winds under
dryslot are allowing fair amount of cooling before northwesterly
winds increase overnight.

Fog was added to the forecast east of I-35 up to near I-40 with
advection fog forming ahead of front/dryline. Some of the fog
could be dense at times near and east of Durant and Ada.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

Low pressure, centered over the Texas Panhandle at 22/0000Z, will
move almost directly east KOKC around 22/1200Z.
This will cause a complicated wind shift pattern across Oklahoma,
as most sites will see a relatively gradual change in direction,
rather than an abrupt change as with a front. Showers will be
possible over the entire region, but will be less likely over SW
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas. A few TSRA may occur over
roughly the eastern half of Oklahoma, but are expected to be too
widely scattered to warrant any mention in TAFs. Low clouds are
expected to form over northern Oklahoma around midnight (06Z),
then shift slowly south through the remainder of the night into
early Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

Light showers are moving northeast out of central Oklahoma this
afternoon. A larger area of heavier showers and rain with a bit of
thunder is moving east across the central TX panhandle. This
second area is associated with the upper low over northern NM
that is expected to move quickly southeast along the Red River
early Sunday. Light rainfall is expected with the passage of this
system, particularly over the northern two-thirds or half of OK.
Amounts are expected to be less than about a third inch in most
places. This system will move quickly east, but bring an
associated surface low accompanied by large MSL pressure gradient
for a few hours after it passes. Winds overnight will be just
below wind advisory criteria for a short time, but still gusty
into late Sunday morning. Associated low clouds will clear quickly
by mid-day. The mid-winter heat wave in place the last several
days will intensify on Tuesday when temperatures in the upper 60s
and lower 70s are expected. Gusty west winds are expected
associated with strong mid-level flow and a storm passing to the
north of Oklahoma. Winds may be near advisory criteria in part of
western Oklahoma and relative humidity may lead to critical fire
weather potential Tuesday afternoon. Once this system passes, a
seasonably cool and dry airmass will reach into Oklahoma from the
central Rockies bringing rather stable weather for the rest of
next week.


Oklahoma City OK  43  57  33  61 /  60  40   0   0
Hobart OK         38  59  32  63 /  30  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  42  62  35  67 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           38  56  28  65 /  60   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     45  55  30  57 /  70  50   0   0
Durant OK         43  60  38  62 /  40  20   0   0




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