Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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459
FXUS64 KOUN 231735
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
For the most part, VFR conditions are expected.

Brief MVFR conditions with -SHRA/-RA are possible south of KCSM-
KSWO before 21 UTC.

Additional ISO-SCT -SHRA may affect parts of the area 21-02 UTC.
Did not mention due to sparse coverage and low confidence of
occurrence at any given site.

North to northwest surface winds will diminish 23-02 UTC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1136 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

UPDATE...
Increased rain chances through 4 pm this afternoon across western
north Texas. Increased highs slightly in western north Texas and
western Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
A cool, breezy day will continue today with some chances for
light showers and perhaps weak thunderstorms.

Made the changes to rain chances based on latest radars and HRRR
model guidance. It appears the highest chances for light rain
will stay near and just south of the Red River through the middle
of the afternoon. Additional light showers will occur east and
southeast of Oklahoma City as well early this afternoon.

Decreasing clouds are expected in most locations through the
afternoon hours which will allow for some heating. Due to
unusually cold air aloft (700 mb temperatures -5C from northern
Oklahoma to +2C near and south of the Red River, near
climatological minimums for this time) and some heating, isolated
showers may form nearly anywhere after 4 pm, then quickly
dissipate 7 to 9 pm. Kept thunder mention south of a Crowell, TX
to Wichita Falls to Purcell to Chandler line where latest HRRR
runs have been depicting MUCAPE 100-500 J/kg. No strong or severe
storms are expected this afternoon, though pea size hail could
occur with any shower/storm due to the unseasonably cold air
aloft.

Highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of
Oklahoma and north Texas this afternoon, about 10-15 degrees
below average.

Products will be updated shortly.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 707 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR conditions continue across areas southeast of the cold
front moving through the area today, but this is becoming less of
an issue at the TAF sites with the arrival of the front. Some rain
(or more likely virga) will continue, mainly behind the front. The
most likely airports to get rain are at KGAG, KWWR and KPNC where
a tempo group has been included. Some light rain is not out of the
question elsewhere, but not high enough chances for a tempo group.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through the area this morning. Scattered
showers will persist today while a upper wave pivots through the
area. Overall, cooler weather is expected the next couple of days,
before warming significantly late this week as upper ridge moves
over the Plains. Troughing redevelops form the Canadian prairies
into the southwestern United States late this week with our next
chance of scattered showers/storms Friday through Monday as this
trough approaches.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/25



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