Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 281747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT KGAG/KWWR/KPNC...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN TAFS. WIND SHIFT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KOKC/KOUN/KCSM/KHBR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED MORNING PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ISO THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTN... LINE OF CU THAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED AND SLOWLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO NW/W OK THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FOR NWRN OK THIS AM. HELD OF CHANGES TO SLGT CHCS
THIS AFTN ACROSS NRN OK... SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT/ISO DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL... WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTN/EVENING. IF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THEY COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND THREAT... WITH STEEP LL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 10 TO 11 C/KM.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO TSRA WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA 21-12Z. DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY
AFFECTING A GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS LOW.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE NEXT CONCERN IS HOT TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST
SO FAR THIS YEAR...OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THIS MORNING...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE IS SOME
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 600-700 MB. ADDED 10 PERCENT ISOLATED
MENTION IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE BIGGEST
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY WENT TOWARDS THE
HOTTER SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONT. SPC/S MARGINAL RISK
SEEMS REASONABLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND PROBABLY
ISOLATED DUE TO SUFFICIENT CAPPING AND WITHOUT MUCH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS MARGINAL AT BEST DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 25-35 KT ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
WITH A FEW STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
STORMS WOULD GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF 1-40. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE CAPPING MAY BE
WEAKEST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOT AND MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. CAPPING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
STORMS FROM FORMING. MAY BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES AND AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY POOL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK.

THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS
WELL.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  68  93  71 /   0  20  20  10
HOBART OK         93  67  97  69 /   0  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  91  70  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           93  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     94  68  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
DURANT OK         89  69  93  70 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/10/10



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