Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 291749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1249 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

29/18Z TAF discussion follows.


Primarily VFR forecast most of the forecast period. MVFR
conditions will be likely over northwest Oklahoma terminals in
area of persistent TSRA. Will carry TSRA chances across northwest
Oklahoma terminals first portion of forecast with focus shifting
south and west with time. With confidence not high enough for
prevailing or tempo across KPNC down to KOKC/KOUN...TSRA will not
be mentioned this issuance. Higher chances after 22Z through at
least 04-06Z is expected southwest Oklahoma and KSPS terminals as
moisture increases over that region and storms form and move out
of the Texas Panhandle late in the day. MVFR or brief IFR
conditions expected near storms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1133 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

Thunderstorm intensity has decreased some over the past
hour in northwest Oklahoma as the 85h flow as decreased
through the morning. In the short term, it appears the main
impact with these storms will be heavy rainfall and flooding.

Storms over northwest Oklahoma will likely continue into
the afternoon with new develop possible south and east.
The air mass over the western half of Oklahoma is relatively
dry compared with lower 70 dewpoints in eastern Oklahoma.

More humid air over Texas will advect northward this afternoon
although slowly. This may result in some development of storms
as temperatures will warm well into the 80s.

Other storms will likely form in the Texas Panhandle/West Texas.
Storms that form should move into western Oklahoma and western
north Texas during the afternoon/evening. The overall flow through
7-5h will remain rather weak...but enough to support some storm

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/


Showers over northwest Oklahoma will continue to drift southeast
and may develop some thunder later this morning. Later this
afternoon, thunderstorms on the dryline in Texas are expected to
enter west central or southwest Oklahoma and drift southeast over
night. mvfr conditions are generally expected over much of western
and central Oklahoma. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

The morning`s forecast is dominated by the north Texas complex of
thunderstorms. These are expected to slowly drift east/southeast
and mostly dissipate later this morning. models are very disparate
regarding location of rain and thunderstorms later today. while
the deep moisture and dryline are givens, the impact of upslope
boundary layer flow and a weak upper wave makes it difficult to
place new initiation. the HRRR and nam indicate that a complex of
thunderstorms will begin in the eastern oklahoma and texas
panhandles and move through the western half of Oklahoma later
today. These would move into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
probably join with other storms moving east from the dryline in
the central or southern Texas panhandle. Depending on storm
location/movement some parts of north Texas could get heavy
rainfall again Sunday night. Confidence is too low presently for a
flood watch. Uncertainty is also high for Monday night and Tuesday
morning when another weak upper wave is expected to pass through
a similarly very wet airmass. Some enhancement has been made to
pops in southwest Oklahoma and nearby Texas for another complex
that may move off the dryline to the west of Oklahoma. By later
Tuesday into early Wednesday there is still fair agreement on a
front moving slowly through Oklahoma and bringing widespread rain
and thunderstorms. The front should clear the Red River Wednesday
night and bring somewhat drier and milder air for the rest of the


Oklahoma City OK  82  64  82  65 /  50  30  40  30
Hobart OK         83  63  82  65 /  60  50  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  84  64  84  66 /  50  60  40  30
Gage OK           81  60  82  63 /  60  40  20  20
Ponca City OK     83  63  82  65 /  40  30  30  20
Durant OK         85  66  83  67 /  30  30  50  20


.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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