385
FXUS64 KOUN 300806
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
306 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mostly clear skies are in place across the area early this morning,
with the exception of some patchy fog across southern Oklahoma where
moisture return has already begun. Moisture will continue to surge
northward through the day as southerly flow increases. A dryline
will setup from northwest Oklahoma into far southwest Oklahoma by
this afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, moderate to strong instability
will be in place with relatively low CIN by mid to late afternoon.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected to initiate ahead of
the dryline, with greatest coverage likely to be across northern
Oklahoma close to a stalling frontal boundary, with a secondary area
of development across southwest OK and western north TX where
capping is a bit weaker. Wind shear will be rather modest with the
stronger mid-level flow remaining well to our north, but with
strong instability in place and bulk shear on the order of 30-35
knots, multicell to transient supercell storm modes could lead to
large to very large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also be a
possibility with fairly large T/Td spreads. The tornado threat
appears very low with fairly weak low-level shear, but could not
be completely ruled out as a modest LLJ increases towards early
evening, especially toward the Kansas border near the front.
Convection will tend to wane by late evening, with some potential
for it to linger through the night across northern Oklahoma in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary. Flooding could also become a
concern across northern Oklahoma this evening and overnight with a
tendency for storms to train along the boundary, but confidence
in boundary location and relatively narrow axis of heaviest rain
precludes a Flood Watch at this time.

Ware


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Any lingering convection across northern Oklahoma Wednesday morning
is expected to dissipate as the front returns northward into Kansas.
Mid-level flow will strengthen a bit during the day as a trough
deepens to our west, with moderate to strong instability expected
once again ahead of the dryline which will set up a bit further
west than Tuesday. Better forcing for ascent associated with the
approaching trough will likely lead to better storm coverage, with
scattered to widespread convection expected along the dryline in
western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late afternoon. With
slightly better shear in place, all severe hazards will be
possible, although large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be
the main threats.

The main upper trough will eject into the plains on Thursday,
sending a cold front into the area during the afternoon. With an
unstable airmass in place ahead of the front, expect additional
chances for showers and storms, most probable across central and
eastern Oklahoam during the afternoon and evening. At least some
risk for severe weather appears possible given decent instability
and sufficient wind shear.

Flooding will also be a concern in areas that see mutliple rounds of
heavy rainfall, but this currently appears to be more of a localized
vs. widespread flooding risk given scattered nature of convection.
Rain and storm chances will then continue Friday into the weekend as
the frontal boundary stalls in the region and southwest flow
continues aloft.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

All terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the
forecast period. Surface winds will stay out of the southeast at
5-10 kts for tonight but will veer more southerly after 14Z
increasing to 15 kts with 20-30 kt gusts. Could see some
thunderstorms initiate after 00Z but probabilities are low enough
for only PROB30 groups at some of our terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  64  81  65 /  10  20  50  40
Hobart OK         90  62  83  63 /  20  20  50  60
Wichita Falls TX  87  66  83  65 /  10  30  40  60
Gage OK           94  58  88  59 /  10  10  40  30
Ponca City OK     88  62  81  65 /  20  70  60  50
Durant OK         84  66  83  66 /   0  10  30  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68