Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 102325
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
525 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Surface winds will remain light (under 10 kt) and vary between
northwesterly and southwesterly before 15 UTC, then increase from
the north/northwest after 15 UTC. Some gusts in northern Oklahoma
will be near 25 kt after 17 UTC.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire Weather remains out primary forecast concern.

Near critical fire weather conditions have developed this afternoon
across portions of western Oklahoma and western north Texas. Winds
have been the limiting factor, as modest winds, 10 to 15 mph with
gusts just near 20 mph have been reported.

Overnight, a weak surface trough will slide southeast, across the
region, with north and northwest winds developing through mid to
late morning, Monday. Conditions will be similar to today, but winds
will be stronger across northwestern Oklahoma, through the
afternoon, 15 to 20 mph, gusting near 25 mph. ERC-G values, an
estimate of the state of fuels, continue to approach the 90th
percentile for western Oklahoma into the Panhandles. These
conditions, along with highs in the 60s, in addition to the breezy
winds, a Red Flag warning will be in effect for northwestern
Oklahoma. This was coordinated with our neighboring offices,
including the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for the counties
surrounding the Warning.

With an upper level northwest flow regime persisting, temperatures
will fluctuate day to day only slightly as weak surface troughs dip
southeast across the southern plains. Highs will vary in the 50s and
60s through the end of the work week, before we`ll see a gradual
pattern change over the weekend. Therefore, fire weather will remain
our primary concern through the week ahead, with elevated conditions
persisting from Tuesday into the weekend.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         33  68  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  34  72  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           30  65  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     29  63  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         39  73  37  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for OKZ006>008-011>018.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for OKZ004-005-
     009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17


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