Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 231714
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EAST AND
EXPANDED POPS FARTHER WEST. STORM COMPLEX IS MOVING FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS
VARY... THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF STORMS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO
OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES... AND SOME SIGNAL OF A DEVELOPMENT INTO A
COMPLEX AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS... THE RISK OF
SEVERE WINDS /AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/ HAS
INCREASED. UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD ALREADY BE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF BR...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FG...WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY OF SCT TSRA...MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KPNC TO
KSPS. OTHERWISE...ONLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND WE WILL RETAIN THE
EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXPIRES AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES...BUT LOWER DEW POINTS...THAN TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR A CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW...BUT AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL BE WELL WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...WE MAY NOT MEET THE 48-HOUR PERSISTENCE CRITERIA ON
FRIDAY IF THURSDAY IS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WILL DEFER TO LATER
SHIFTS TO DECIDE ON WHETHER AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA
TODAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF I-44.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT AS SOUTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
BREAK FROM THE HEAT...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  95  72  96  76 /  20  10   0   0
HOBART OK         99  72 100  74 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  74 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           98  70 100  76 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  92  77 /  20  10   0   0
DURANT OK         96  73 100  74 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>031-
     033>042-044>047-050-051.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$


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