Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 211109
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The heat remains the biggest concern.

Expanded today`s Heat Advisory to include 3 counties in northern
Oklahoma (Major, Cherokee, and Woods). Confidence is moderate to
high that heat indices will be near or just above 105 degrees
in the advisory area this afternoon into early evening.

Today will be hotter than yesterday in most, if not all,
locations under sunny skies. Surface dewpoints may be lower this
afternoon compared to previous afternoons as the ground dries out.
Overall, slightly preferred the lower guidance high numbers as
most models, especially the GFS, seem to be too dry in the
boundary layer and too deep with vertical mixing.

Friday may be hotter than today, though surface dewpoints may be
a bit lower. The current Heat Advisory may need to be extended
and/or expanded.

Saturday will remain hot. Kept the forecast dry with rain chances
below 15%, though a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms may
occur in southeastern Oklahoma where deeper moisture and a weak
mid level disturbance may occur. Also, would not be surprised if a
few storms made into northwestern Oklahoma Saturday night. Any
shower or storm would be slow movers with locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds as the main hazards.

Sunday through Wednesday, slightly cooler conditions are forecast
with rain chances returning nearly each day as the mid/upper level
ridge breaks down over the Plains and retrogrades west.
Widespread rainfall appears unlikely at this time, though some
locations may get some locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty
winds with showers and storms.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        100  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  77 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  74 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    100  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         99  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-024>026-028>032-042-043-047-048-051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

03/17/17


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.