Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250523 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1223 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

25/06Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected with prolonged periods of
broken mid-cloud. Light east-southeast winds expected as well.
Showers and storms should stay west of terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

Expect some increase in mid clouds from west to east overnight with
a light east wind. Have kept VFR conditions through the day Sunday,
although there is a chance for some MVFR ceilings to develop by
afternoon with some scattered shwr/tstm in southwest Oklahoma into
north Texas. However, chances remain too low to introduce
them in the TAFs at this time.



The forecast challenge is determining rain chances over the next
few days.

Through tonight, lowered/removed rain chances across much of the
area. Only kept 20% in far western Oklahoma and far western north
Texas (towards 100 degrees West longitude and points west) after
midnight where a few weak showers and thunderstorms could occur
due to weak mid level isentropic lift. Otherwise, think the lack
of deep moisture should keep much, if not all, of Oklahoma and
north Texas rainfree tonight. The 12 UTC NAM12 appeared to be way
too wet, initializing with widespread rainfall today over the
Texas Panhandle which did not materialize at all. With less cloud
cover, lowered overnight lows tonight due to increased
radiational cooling and light surface winds. Lows are generally
forecast to be around 10F degrees below average for this time of
year. Patchy fog may form near and south of Red River where the
heaviest rainfall fell earlier today, leaving slightly higher
surface dewpoints (mid 60s) in place, but did not mention due to
low confidence of occurrence, especially as some sunshine will
evaporate ground moisture late this afternoon.

Sunday, kept low rain chances, generally 20-30% across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas due to some mid level
isentropic lift and some mid level moisture. Not sure about
rain coverage due to the weak lift, limited instability (MUCAPE
generally below 1000 J/kg), and limited low level moisture.
Believe any rainfall should be light. Increasing mid level clouds
could occur across much of the area. However, preferred the warmer
side of model guidance highs thinking some sun will occur,
especially early in the day.

Sunday night through Tuesday, kept low rain chances across much of
the area due to continued weak mid level isentropic lift in a
northwest mid/upper flow pattern and sufficient nearby moisture.
Have low confidence on when, where, and if rain occurs. Think any
rainfall should remain light and rather spotty with most
locations staying dry. Temperatures and low level moisture should
slowly increase each day.

Wednesday and Thursday, breezy to windy conditions and warmer
temperatures are expected. This may elevate fire weather
conditions, especially where recent rainfall has been limited.
Rain chances appear to be very low to near zero due to increasing
capping/700 mb temperatures.

Late Thursday through Saturday, latest models have been suggesting
that rain chances may increase during this time frame with the
approach of a weak cold front and mid/upper trough. Due to
increasing moisture and instability, locally heavy rainfall and
some strong to perhaps severe storms may be possible. Not
confident that widespread rainfall will occur.



Oklahoma City OK  61  86  64  88 /  10  10  20  20
Hobart OK         63  85  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  65  85  67  89 /  20  20  20  20
Gage OK           62  84  63  87 /  30  20  30  20
Ponca City OK     61  85  62  87 /  10  10  20  10
Durant OK         66  85  66  88 /  10  10  10  10




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