Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151120
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 KT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1028 MB SFC HIGH. A HARD FREEZE/FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM. LATER TODAY...THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
SE AND A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
60S WITH SSW SFC FLOW RETURNING. A STOUT SSW LLJ WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE PASSES WELL
NORTH OF US AND A MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATION ENTERS NM. EVEN
WITH RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN PLACE...ELEVATED SFC
WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN CONSMOS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WED EVE. A SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE
CAPROCK AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT. HAVE
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF W OK AND W N TX FOR
WED SINCE TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THEN
WITH MIN RH NEAR 15 TO 20 PERCENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE REGION BY THURS AM AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NW OK. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS THURS ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 ESPECIALLY IF FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THURS MAINLY ACROSS N/C OK WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THURS DEPENDING ON BOTH THE AMOUNT
OF CAA AND PRECIP LOCATIONS...BUT DID DROP THEM A BIT ACROSS NW OK
WHERE RAINFALL AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAVE BIGGEST
IMPACT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WILL RESULT IN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-40 RANGE
SAT-SUN AS THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL AND
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         65  40  72  46 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  41  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           67  42  74  42 /   0   0   0  20
PONCA CITY OK     65  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         63  39  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-
     027-033>038-044.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ014-021-033-034-036-037.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ026-028>032-
     039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>089.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ090.

&&

$$

30/03/03



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