Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 140939
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
439 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COMPACT DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN POPS
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
AREA IS BRUSHED BY SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER WAVE THAT WILL PASS
OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL BE WEAK FRONT THAT WILL
MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE LATE MONDAY. OVERALL...MODELS SHOWING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EXTENT/LOCATION OF RAIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE GFS SHOWING TYPICAL WET
BIAS AND WRF ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM. ECM SOLUTIONS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO GFS SO MODERATE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CONSENSUS BLEND
INITIALIZATIONS ARE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WE TOOK
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SIDE WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS HAS MUCH BETTER
DPROG/DT THAN ECM AND THE ECM IS TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION
OF ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  65  83  65 /  10  30  30  40
HOBART OK         79  65  83  65 /  10  20  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  66  83  68 /  10  20  20  40
GAGE OK           81  64  82  58 /   0  10  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     79  66  83  61 /   0  20  30  40
DURANT OK         78  65  83  69 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11


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