Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 241552
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Strong gusty winds are still possible this afternoon so will
continue with current wind advisory. However, parts of it may need
to be cancelled early depending on where the low tracks, with the
northern edge of the advisory being the most likely area, so will
continue to monitor with some changes possible later.
Rain continues to develop and move across SE/E portions of the fa
this morning. This activity will gradually shift east out of the
fa this afternoon with any severe storms becoming less likely in
this area. Additional showers/storms will be possible across
approximately the northern half of the fa this afternoon as the
upper low moves across the area. Extended PoPs a little further
south to account for a more southern track of the upper low. Some
of these storms this afternoon could be strong to severe with
large hail and maybe some gusty winds possible.
Near-critical to critical wildfire conditions are still possible
this afternoon across portions of the area as drier air moves into
the fa and combines with the gusty winds. Will continue with the
current configuration of the Red Flag Warning for now but will
monitor as well.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/
Main concerns are with fire weather, strong winds and possible
severe weather today. Several storm system to impact the southern
Plains through the upcoming week.
Strong storm system will make its way east across the area today.
Most of the early/overnight activity has dissipated, however
additional showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
later this morning with increasing chances from late morning
through the mid-afternoon across areas to the east of I-35. Some
risk of a strong or possibly a severe storm, however higher
probabilities look to remain just east of our area.
Drier air will filter into much of the western half of Oklahoma
and western north Texas from mid-morning through much of the
afternoon before wrap-around moisture moves back in from the north
and northwest. This drier air will combine with warm temperatures
and strong gusty winds to create critical fire weather conditions
for much of western north Texas into southern, central and parts
of northern Oklahoma. Will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning. Will also continue with the Wind Advisory and even
expand it further north and east. There is a chance for a few
gusts this morning above 40 mph across portions of central into
north-central Oklahoma, but these winds are expected diminish as
even stronger winds develop late this morning through the
afternoon across western/southwestern Oklahoma back into central
sections of the state as well as western north Texas.
Some wrap around showers will be possible by late this afternoon
and through the night across northern Oklahoma as the upper low
gradually pushes east. Cold temperatures aloft, associated with
the upper low, may lead to the possibility for a few cold air
funnels late today into the evening hours as well.
A bit cooler temperatures expected on Saturday with dry weather as
the next system begins to approach the area for Sunday. South
winds increase quickly on Sunday and try to pull moisture back
north in response. May get sufficient moisture back in time for a
few severe storms, again mainly along and east of I-35.
Much of next week looks fairly active, but not great confidence
in the details. There does appear to be more days than not with
chances of much needed rain across Oklahoma and western north
Texas with only minimal severe weather risk. Along with this will
be associated cloud cover and more seasonal temperatures.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 79 47 68 48 / 20 10 0 0
Hobart OK 77 44 70 47 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 83 46 73 50 / 10 0 0 0
Gage OK 67 41 69 44 / 30 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 79 46 65 44 / 20 40 0 0
Durant OK 79 50 72 49 / 60 10 0 0
OK...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ014-016-021>025-
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.