Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 210250
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS HOLDING THEIR OWN...MORE SO THAN ANY MODEL
DEPICTS. THERE IS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS BUT COLD POOL TRYING TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL
INTRODUCE POPS TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH
STABILIZATION BUT LOW LEVEL JET MORE PROMINENT AND MAY KEEP RAIN
GOING LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS IN WEST TEXAS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF OUR FA THROUGH
THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SSWSLY MID TO UPPER
FLOW OVER THE WNW WHERE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL SUPPORT SCHC POPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR NW OK SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER ONE FOLLOWING SUNDAY EVENING. BEFORE NEXT WEEK THIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME-FRAME FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. RELIEF APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY BY DAY 8
THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           75  99  75  99 /   0  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     76  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  96  74  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/06



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