Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

561
FXUS64 KOUN 260337
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1037 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered hunderstorms will move through central Oklahoma toward
southern Oklahoma overnight. A weak front will remain across the
state which will bring chances for scattered thunderstorms during
the afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 934 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Increased the probability of showers/storms in central Oklahoma
and decreased the probability across northern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop along and
north of the I-44 corridor across central Oklahoma. Convective-
allowing and synoptic models indicate this development likely is
due to isentropic ascent along a ~925-850 mb baroclinc zone. This
boundary is even has some reflection at the surface. This
baroclinic zone may continue to shift southward through the
evening/overnight hours along with the attendant showers/storms.
The primary hazard (in addition to lightning) from these storms
will be locally heavy rainfall. For example, the Guthrie Mesonet
station just received 0.78" in an hour.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Isolated thunderstorms will exist over the southern two-thirds of
Oklahoma through Tuesday mid-day. Winds will be light outside of
thunderstorms and their outflow boundaries.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern will be continue to be characterized over the
next few days with the upper ridge in the west and a relatively
longwave weak trough across the Great Lakes region into the mid
Mississippi valley. Shortwaves moving southeast in the flow to our
north and northeast may not directly affect us, but with surface
boundaries in the neighborhood and the lack of the strong ridge
over the Plains, we will keep chances of storms in the forecast
for the next few days. The longer range forecasts from the medium
range models suggest that the upper ridge will build back toward
the Plains next weekend, and the GFS suggests we could get back to
hot weather. However, ECMWF is not quite as aggressive with the
warming, but we will watch the trends over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  92  74  91 /  90  40  20  30
Hobart OK         75  95  74  94 /  40  30  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  77  95  75  94 /  30  30  20  30
Gage OK           72  92  70  92 /  10  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     74  90  73  91 /  30  40  20  30
Durant OK         76  94  76  94 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/09/09



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.