Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 011807 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN LIES IN THE NEAR TERM...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. OVERNIGHT...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN TIMING CONFIDENCE...
STAYED WITH PROB30S FOR SITES MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
PRECIP.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON POPS/WEATHER A BIT TO REFLECT A SOMEWHAT
EARLIER TIME FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON
INDICATIONS FROM VARIOUS SHORT-TERM MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WANE AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THIS
MORNING AS THE HIRESW-ARW AND HIRESW-NMM MODELS BOTH SHOW SOME
BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER SUNRISE... BUT
OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. AND EXCEPT
FOR THE GFS... MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

POPS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE
STORMS MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH GFS PAINTS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THE SIGNAL IS MUCH STRONGER FOR
STORMS AFTER 06Z AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY BEFORE STORMS MOVE OUT.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WARM AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE TEMPERATURES TO BE
MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  92  69  82  53 /  20  40  30  10
HOBART OK         93  67  81  52 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  95  73  87  56 /  20  30  20  10
GAGE OK           89  57  74  45 /  10  20  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     90  67  78  51 /  30  60  50  10
DURANT OK         91  72  88  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/04/04


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