000
FXUS64 KOUN 161043
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
1612/1712 TAFS...

Most of the showers and thunderstorms this morning will
remain north and east of all TAF sites.  VFR conditions
are expected with a southerly wind.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this
afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across
northern and central Oklahoma. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are expected to form along and near
the front, especially near PNC/OKC/OUN.  MVFR to perhaps
IFR conditions are possible within and close to storms.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A small area of thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma should
continue to move north and east this morning in advance of a
shortwave trough. Other showers and a few storms have been
developing in an area of weak mid level convergence, especially
across south Texas. Widely scattered showers and a few storms will
remain possible this morning, especially across south
central/southeast Oklahoma. PWAT values remain rather high, so
locally heavy rains will be possible.

A cold front moving across western Kansas early this morning
will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms by this
afternoon and early evening. At this time, it appears the front
will move into northwest Oklahoma this morning, then slow during
the afternoon. The front will likely have a better push southward
over the higher terrain to our west. The 00z NSSL WRF develops
storms by early afternoon over north central Oklahoma, perhaps
along an outflow boundary from early morning convection. Other
models are slower and farther west. Regardless, it seems likely
that storms will form during the afternoon over northern Oklahoma.
Instability and shear will support some strong to severe storms
with very heavy rainfall. Warmer lower to mid level temperatures
over southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas may limit
convective potential, however, there should be enough storm
organization to keep high chance POPs across this area. Storms may
linger across southern Oklahoma and north Texas Thursday morning
with mainly dry conditions elsewhere.

Additional storms are possible Thursday evening and night as
surface winds become east and southeast. Near surface moisture
will advect northward into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Storms may organize then move across the area overnight. The NAM12
tracks storms over northern Oklahoma, however better instability
may favor storms moving farther south.

More storms are possible Friday evening and night across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Over the weekend, a mid and upper level
ridge should build over the southern Plains with stronger
westerlies well to the north. This should limit storm chances into
early next week. Another front may approach the area by late
Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. This should increase the chances
of rain and storms again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  71  90  71 /  20  70  10  50
Hobart OK         94  72  93  72 /  20  60  20  50
Wichita Falls TX  91  74  94  74 /  30  50  30  30
Gage OK           91  65  90  67 /  20  10  10  60
Ponca City OK     92  68  89  68 /  40  60  10  40
Durant OK         90  74  91  73 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$