Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 241727
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally, VFR conditions are expected to continue.

At KSPS, MVFR conditions will be near this site, mainly before
21 UTC and perhaps 10-16 UTC on Sunday with BR. Only kept a TEMPO
mention 18-20 UTC Saturday of MVFR ceilings.

Chances of -RA/-SHRA remain too low to mention at any given site.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1046 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have made some minor adjustments to PoPs for mid-to-late afternoon
today, reducing them somewhat, and removing them entirely over the
eastern 2/3 of our forecast area. This scenario is shown by almost
all forecast models, and makes sense as the cool/stable airmass
continues its slow advance into the southern Plains. No other
changes have been made to the forecast, and no additional changes
are currently planned for this morning.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

AVIATION...
24/12Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail with plenty of
mid-level cloud cover. Widespread showers and isolated TSRA across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas will affect terminals first 3
to 5 hours of forecast with possibility of MVFR vis restrictions.
Scattered showers across northern Oklahoma will be seen first few
hours of forecast and may work their way into central Oklahoma.
Generally light easterly winds will prevail or develop through the
day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers/storms primarily over southwest half of
Oklahoma and northern Texas will likely take its time but
eventually move out of the CWA before noon. Widespread rainfall
amounts of one to two inches common across a large part of
southwest Oklahoma into northern Texas. A few locations likely saw
and some areas will see around three inches before all is said and
done. Much more isolated activity will be possible farther north
over the northern half of Oklahoma this morning with any rainfall
amounts well on the light side. This has been handled reasonably
well the past several hours by the HRRR/HRRR-X/RAP. Although we
likely had a few storms producing quarter to half dollar size hail
overnight, overall intensity has been coming down and likelihood
of additional severe storms is low. Cannot rule out some rainfall
totals adding up to require flood advisories or even flash flood
warnings.

Focus for additional rain activity will then shift to our west
and with northwest flow through early part of the week, any
effects from higher terrain convection will primarily affect
western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas. Developing
central U.S. trough agreed upon by GFS/ECM from Tuesday through
end of the week and this will result in increasing southerly
winds, warming temperatures, and increased humidity. Initial
trough late Tuesday will bring higher chances for showers/storms
across mainly northern parts of Oklahoma. As the longwave trough
evolves and progresses eastward, cold front progd to move into
the region late Thursday into Friday which will bring another
chance for more widespread rain activity late in the week into
first part of next weekend. Temperatures through the coming week
are forecast to stay near and below average.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/17/17


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