Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 191125
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am this morning for parts of
southern and southeastern Oklahoma where surface visibilities have
fall to 1/4 mile in some locations (Atoka and Ardmore).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue.

South to southwesterly surface winds will increase 14-17 UTC, then
decrease after 00 UTC. Some gusts 30-35 kt are possible in parts
of western Oklahoma 18-24 UTC.

Non-convective low level wind shear is possible at many sites
after 01 UTC Monday. Only mentioned this at Ponca City where
confidence of occurrence is moderate. Otherwise, chances of
occurrence remain too low to mention.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wildfire potential and near record warm temperatures today and
Monday are the primary short-term concerns. A strong storm system
may bring additional wildfire, severe thunderstorm, and strong
wind concerns Thursday into Friday.

Before 9 am this morning, some patchy fog will reduce
visibilities to less than 3 miles in parts of southern and
southeastern Oklahoma. Added mention southeast of a Holdenville
to Ardmore to Marietta line. Doubt the fog will be widespread or
get too dense.

Today, very warm/hot, sunny, and windy conditions are expected.
Similar to the past several days, went towards the warmer side of
guidance highs, well into the 80s and even 90s across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas as latest models seem to be
underestimating the amount of low level/boundary layer
heating/mixing. Think surface winds will stay just below Wind
Advisory criteria with most gusts below 40 mph.

Monday may be even hotter in many areas under sunny skies.
Forecast model 850mb temperatures +18 to +25C are near
climatological maximums for this time of year. A weak surface
boundary will move into parts of northern and western Oklahoma
bringing weaker surface winds, but no cold air.

Tuesday, cooler conditions are forecast compared to Monday as the
surface boundary pushes a bit farther south as a weak dry cold
front. There does not appear to be much in the way of significant
cold air behind the front. Latest model guidance has been trending
warmer on this day. Chances for thunderstorm development appear to
be too low to mention at this time (below 15%) due to strong
capping and the lack of significant lift.

By Wednesday, cooler conditions are forecast. Kept low chances
for showers and thunderstorms mainly east of I-35, though capping
may prevent storm development in Oklahoma.

Thursday through Friday, still appears a strong storm system will
move across and impact the Southern Plains. Strong and gusty surface
winds with at least elevated wildfire danger on Thursday seem to
be likely. Additional exact impacts including severe thunderstorms
and rainfall coverage remain uncertain. Will continue to monitor.

Next Saturday appears to be dry and cooler with temperatures
closer to average for late March.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
Went ahead and upgraded the entire Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning today as critical wildfire conditions are expected
across parts of western Oklahoma and far western north Texas due
to very warm, dry, and windy conditions. Forecast surface
dewpoints and resulting surface humidity remain somewhat uncertain
across the area this afternoon. Would not be surprised if the Red
Flag Warning needed to be expanded eastward if humidity values
are lower than currently forecast. Regardless, dry vegetation, ERC
values around the 70th percentile, strong winds, and unusually
warm air will support the ignition and rapid spread of wildfires
this afternoon and early evening across Oklahoma and north Texas.

Elevated to near critical fire conditions will occur again on
Monday due to near record warm temperatures, dry, and somewhat
breezy conditions. Critical conditions may be possible Monday
afternoon into early evening across central and southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas where surface winds may approach 20 mph
and humidity values fall to around 20%. Confidence in critical
wildfire conditions on Monday remains too low to warrant the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch at this time. Surface winds will
be lighter on Monday compared to today across much of the area.

Critical wildfire conditions may return Thursday due to dry, very
warm, and windy conditions.

MBS

CLIMATE...
Daily record highs over the next few days, especially Monday, may
be in jeopardy. Here are the records.

Oklahoma City

Sunday March 19....97F set in 1907
Monday March 20....92F set in 1907

Wichita Falls

Sunday March 19....94F set in 1976
Monday March 20....92F set in 1978
Tuesday March 21...94F set in 1997

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  62  92  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         91  60  94  58 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  61  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           95  51  91  49 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     90  60  90  54 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         86  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ032-
     041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

06/17/17



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