Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 252005
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US.

BETTER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GREAT PLAINS. A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3500-4000
J/KG PER 12Z NAM12. DANGEROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF
STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE STORM MODE MAY BECOME
QUICKLY LINEAR GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. STORMS MAY FIRST DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHEROKEE TO ANADARKO AND LAWTON LINE.
STORM DEVELOP FARTHER WEST OR EAST IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BOTTOM
LINE...DANGEROUS STORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO
PLAN AHEAD.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OR POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BEGIN AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY MOST AREAS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. BY SATURDAY-EARLY
SUNDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  82  58  81 /  10  30  30   0
HOBART OK         64  85  52  81 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  86  57  83 /  10  30  20   0
GAGE OK           54  84  48  77 /  10  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  82  58  80 /  10  40  60  10
DURANT OK         67  81  63  83 /  10  30  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/06



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