Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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512
FXUS64 KOUN 202042
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
342 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Several CAMs are consistent in developing thunderstorms over
parts of western and northern Kansas by mid afternoon. In fact,
a few storms have already formed north of Scott City. Instability
and shear north of Oklahoma, will support some storm organization
through the evening hours. Storm movement should be southeast
then south and southwest as a low level jet increases during the
early evening. It still appears northwest and perhaps west central
Oklahoma will have the best opportunity of receiving some rain
from showers/storms by mid evening.

On Wednesday, northwest Oklahoma will again have better
chances for showers and storms. During the afternoon, widely
scattered storms should develop over the higher terrain with
additional support possible from a fast moving shortwave. Storm
timing and initial develop should favor evening thunderstorms.

By early Thursday, southeast Oklahoma should see at least an increase
of cloud cover from Tropical Storm Cindy. Most model are similar
in tracking this system across northeast Texas on Thursday and
then into Arkansas by Friday. Some showers and perhaps storms may
develop over our southeast counties Thursday afternoon/evening.

There are still timing differences with a cold front late Friday
into Saturday. However, it does appear that cooler temperatures
can be expected over the weekend, especially Sunday.

Currently, it appears a cold front may push into northern
Oklahoma on Friday as a shortwave trough moves across the
northern Plains Thursday into Friday. The main front may not
push across the area until Saturday when another strong trough
moves across the northern Plains. Confidence in the forecast
over the weekend is not very high at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         68  95  68  94 /  10   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           71  96  69  95 /  30   0  30   0
Ponca City OK     69  93  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         68  91  70  87 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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