Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1257 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed over the past
hour, especially across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Storms should continue to form near a dryline in the eastern Texas
panhandle this afternoon. If storms continue to form, 18z taf tempo
groups may be a little late with storms impacting terminal sites
this afternoon and evening. Severe storms may impact all terminal
sites, especially across western Oklahoma. MVFR to IFR conditions
are likely with strong storms today. Most of the convection may
move east of all terminal sites by 7-9z with mainly MVFR
conditions prevailing.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

The 12Z aviation discussion follows....

There is quite a variety of ceiling heights and visibilities this
morning across Oklahoma and north Texas. The general trend between
12Z and 15Z will be toward higher ceilings and better
visibilities. However, thunderstorms are expected to form and/or
spread north across Oklahoma late this morning into the afternoon.
While there is substantial uncertainty regarding timing/location
of these storms, probabilities are high enough to warrant TEMPO
groups for TSRA at several sites from late morning into mid-
afternoon. Additional storms are expected to form later in the
afternoon and overnight. The current forecast places most of the
evening/overnight TSRA southeast of a line from KSPS to KPVJ to
KSNL. Stratus and BR are expected yet again overnight into
tomorrow morning across much of Oklahoma and north Texas.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

Warm/hot and humid weather will continue through Sunday, followed
by slightly cooler weather early next week.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again today into
tonight as a couple of upper-level disturbances arrive from the
west, and interact with very unstable conditions over the southern
Plains. A few showers/storms, currently over central Texas, may
reach southern parts of our forecast area early this morning. More
widespread showers and storms are expected to develop around noon
as upper-level support arrives and weakens an already relatively
weak capping inversion. As the day progresses, the greatest rain
chances will shift to the southeast.

The main area of rain/storms will continue to shift slowly
southeast into southeastern Oklahoma tonight into Friday. While
storms will probably be much less numerous farther west, there
will still be some risk of severe storms over our entire forecast
area on Friday.

Heavy rain will be possible Friday in our far southeast counties,
as the second upper-level wave passes over the region. The exact
location of heavy rainfall will depend on the location of low-
level focusing mechanisms, and currently the best estimate is
roughly the southeastern quarter or so of Oklahoma.

Saturday will be relatively quiet, but rain and thunderstorms will
likely return to the region on Sunday. At this point, rain chances
look relatively high from Sunday through Thursday of next week.
While widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely, locally heavy
rain will be a possibility through this period. There is some
significant difference of opinion between the medium-range models
next week, so the risk of severe weather is difficult to determine
at this time.


Oklahoma City OK  66  81  63  85 /  50  40  20  10
Hobart OK         64  85  60  87 /  40  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  65  86  62  88 /  60  40  10  10
Gage OK           60  84  55  86 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     67  80  63  83 /  50  40  40  10
Durant OK         68  78  67  85 /  70  80  50  20


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