Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220528 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1120 PM FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND ARE EXPECTE
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME THUNDER COMING IN AROUND SUNRISE AND COULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT WRN SITES...THIS AFTN. OTRW...IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS...POPS..AND QPF. PLEASE SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL LOWS
AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...MID 30S
ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WNW OK WITH 50S AND 60S PRESENT EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK. STILL EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TO DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN N TX.
MID LEVEL OMEGA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT APPEARS IT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
HERE AROUND 12Z. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDER...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH. SOME NAM PROFILES SUGGEST
ENOUGH FOR SOME HAIL...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS. CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR GARVIN...STEPHENS...TO CLAY COUNTY. VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN
ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR AND POSSIBLE LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
CHANCES OF THUNDER COMING IN AROUND SUNRISE AND COULD LINGER THOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX. CEILINGS WILL ONLY
RISE TO LOWER-END MVFR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS ON INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOG HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY NUISANCE TODAY... HOWEVER... CONDITIONS
HAVE... AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NRN AND WRN OK... WITH
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN OK.

FOR TONIGHT... PULLED BACK PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 7PM AND
MIDNIGHT. AS THE H500 SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TAKE A FAR SOUTHERLY
TRACK ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS HAS DISPLACED THE GREATEST
MOISTURE RETURN TO SKOSH FARTHER TO THE EAST... SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS THOUGHTS. THROUGH THE EVENING... MID/UPPER 50S DPTS
REMAIN POOLED PRIMARILY EAST OF I-44 AND ALONG I-35 TO NEAR PONCA
CITY. HOWEVER... WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK... THE BEST FORCING
WILL REMAIN S/SW OF THE RED RIVER... ACROSS CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT... INCREASED CHCS ALONG THE RED RIVER S/SW
THROUGH WRN N TX... AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT AND LIFT E/NE
ACROSS CENTRAL TX. AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT... A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AS SFC DPTS PULL INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS... COMBINED WITH
THE INCREASING SWRLY LLJ... A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN N TX/TEXOMA WITHIN A NARROW WINDOW CENTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY... SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN OK AND WRN N
TX. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TOTALS ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX...
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES ACROSS
TEXOMA. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE... SOME MINOR FLOODING
OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSING IS POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY... RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY... WITH A WEAK DRY COLD
FRONT... AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  54  62  52 /  20  70  70  30
HOBART OK         57  46  63  47 /  10  60  50  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  62  56  64  49 /  10 100  80  30
GAGE OK           47  39  62  40 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  49  62  51 /  40  30  50  30
DURANT OK         63  56  61  52 /  30  70 100  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/30


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