Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161342
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
742 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail with only a little cirrus expected
over southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Winds will be light to
moderate and generally from the south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast continues pretty well as expected. Today will be much
warmer as upper-level ridging builds into the Plains. A southern
stream upper low currently moving from the Gulf of California into
Sonora/Sinaloa this morning will continue to slowly drift
northeast across Chihuahua and southwest Texas and toward
Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon. Surface flow remains offshore
along the Texas Gulf Coast this morning, and although onshore flow
will develop this afternoon as the surface ridge moves off the
coast, there will be little time for effective moisture transport
ahead of this system. Most precipitation that develops will likely
be southeast and east of the forecast area, although we will keep
low pops in the far southeast on Saturday. There is no
interruption with the onshore flow in the wake of this system, so
low-level moisture return will continue unabated through Texas and
into Oklahoma ahead of the next upper longwave that approaches
early next week. And as yesterday`s day shift pointed out,
forecast precipitable water values are pretty impressive for mid
February, so some locally heavy rainfall could be a concern.
Progged instability appears to be sufficient for the mention of
thunderstorms, mainly in the south, but severe weather chances do
not seem particularly high at the moment. .26.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  40  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  41  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           72  37  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     70  39  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  42  69  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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