Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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373
FXUS64 KOUN 202050
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
350 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A surface front that stalled over western Oklahoma today will
retreat/weaken overnight, leaving all of Oklahoma (at least east
of the Panhandle) and north Texas in the warmer airmass for
tomorrow and Friday. The heat and humidity will allow for at least
isolated thunderstorms each day, depending on cap strength.

For the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening, the
greatest chance for thunderstorms will be over north-central
Oklahoma...and in our Texas counties + adjacent parts of southwest
Oklahoma. The cap will be weakest in these locations, and weak
low-level convergence combined with high temperatures may be
enough to generate a few storms despite the cap. If storms do
develop, strong winds would be the primary threat. Forecast
upper-air soundings suggest a hail threat, although the high
freezing level would help reduce that threat somewhat.

A strand of mid-level moisture along the nocturnal low-level jet,
amid weak isentropic lift, may generate a few showers and
thunderstorms over parts of western/central Oklahoma (and adjacent
parts of north Texas) Thursday morning. Then, the afternoon
situation resembles today`s, with a continuing chance of isolated
thunderstorms.

The hot weather, breezy conditions, and small area of relatively
low humidities will cause "Elevated" fire danger conditions for
the next several afternoons across far northwest Oklahoma.

By Friday, mid-level temperatures should be warm enough to
preclude any significant chance of storms, but the weekend will
see the approach of a large-scale trough. This will bring
increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms. A slight chance
will begin Saturday in the far northwest, then chances will
increase and spread east Sunday into Monday.

For Tuesday onward, there is significant model spread, so we have
rain chances in the forecast, but with substantial uncertainty.

This progression of weather systems will result in a gradual
decrease in afternoon temperatures through the period.

CmS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         72  94  72  91 /  10  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  95  73  92 /  20  20  10   0
Gage OK           63  95  71  90 /  10  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     75  92  73  91 /  20  10  10   0
Durant OK         75  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17/23



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