Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211726
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 18 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to continue.

Added -SHRA at many sites in western Oklahoma after 12 UTC Monday
where confidence of occurrence is moderate. -TSRA may be possible
as well, but chances of thunder occurring seem to be too low
to mention.

Some MVFR conditions may form across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas after 12 UTC. Did not mention due to low confidence
of occurrence.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1018 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

UPDATE...
Warmer today with highs in the 70s to around 80. Overall going
forecast looks good. Did make some adjustments to sky cover to
account for clouds in far southern portions of fa this morning and
clouds moving into NW parts of the fa this afternoon. Otherwise,
no other changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

AVIATION...
21/12Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail with light and
variable winds becoming south/southeast through the day and stay
on the light side. RA and TSRA across northern Texas expected to
stay well south of KSPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and storms expected to stay just south of our
CWA this morning as mid-level/H7 trough continues to progress
eastward over region. Another great May weather day with light
winds and low RH in store, and here we are on midnight shifts.

Rain chances will increase across mainly northwest Oklahoma
tonight as next s/wv trough progresses through base of
northern/central U.S. l/wv trough. Rain chances will continue
through at least Tuesday morning as moisture returns and height
falls continue as trough progresses through region. Cold front
will move through the area late Monday and early Tuesday which
will help focus rain chances. Severe weather cannot be ruled out
late Monday ahead of and near this front, especially over far
western parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas as possible MCS
progresses off of High Plains. Primary impact would be damaging
winds.

Continued cooler than average through Wednesday before temps
closer to average and above return Friday into next weekend.
Models trying to converge on a pattern for multi-day severe
weather toward next weekend given moisture return, dryline/cold
front proximity and modest w/sw flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  54  75  56 /   0  10  30  50
Hobart OK         78  54  73  55 /   0  10  40  50
Wichita Falls TX  78  55  75  59 /  10  10  40  50
Gage OK           76  55  70  50 /  10  30  50  40
Ponca City OK     75  52  74  54 /   0  10  30  40
Durant OK         78  57  75  58 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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