Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 220455
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 06z TAFs:

VFR conditions and light south/southeast will prevail. Winds may
be variable initially at GAG/WWR which are in close proximity to
an MCV from earlier convection. Deeper convection has diminished
but light rain may last an hour or two beyond the start of the TAF
period at GAG/WWR. Another round of thunderstorms could impact
these same airports again Thursday evening.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/


DISCUSSION...
A persisting upper high across the southwestern U.S will continue
to bring northwest flow across the southern plains, rolling in
another round of showers and thunderstorms off the central high
plains. Latest HRRR and Texas Tech WRF models suggest a few storms
begin moving into far northwest Oklahoma around 10 pm, and not
advancing very far before dissipating by early Thursday morning.
So far, the risk for these storms is marginal, with up to golfball
size hail and strong to severe wind gusts possible.

The remainder of Thursday is expected to be dry with seasonably
normal temperatures, with chances for more widespread TSRA
returning on Friday through the weekend as a series of short wave
disturbances in the upper flow come through. For Friday into
Friday night, the storm and rain chances increase as an advancing
surface boundary will interact with an upper wave. For this
weekend, both GFS and ECMWF suggest additional storms possible as
a few more short waves pass through, but uncertain with the timing
or moisture available, so POPs will remain low until we get
closer in time. One thing for sure, unseasonably cooler air
lagging behind Friday`s cold front passage should be arriving by
Saturday night. Temperatures for Sunday are expected to 10 to 15
degrees cooler than normal for early Summer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  68  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         95  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  66  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           96  67  96  66 /   0  40   0  30
Ponca City OK     93  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         90  70  89  72 /   0   0  10   0


&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09/12


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