Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 271334 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
REMOVED RAIN CHANCES TODAY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.

OLD COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS FALLEN APART IN KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS
IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE DISSIPATED AND NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THUS...REMOVED RAIN CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

WILL CLOSELY MONITOR HEAT INDICES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS
MORNING TO SEE IF A HEAT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED. AT THIS
TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ONE...BUT LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
81 INCLUDING OKLAHOMA CITY...PONCA CITY...ADA...AND ATOKA WOULD
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
27/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 15-17Z MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECREASE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-MORNING AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KANSAS MCS PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA. GREATER WAA
ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER WITH
WEAKER LLJ AND BAROCLINICITY AS YOUR WORK YOUR WAY SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. AS LLJ WEAKENS ALL RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON EXPECTED.
FORECAST TEMP/TD TRENDS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES AOA 100 BUT BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CAVEAT BEING THAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIXES
BACK NORTH AS PROGD. IF IT DOESN`T...WE COULD SEE SOME MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR BOUNDARY AND ELEVATE HEAT INDICES INTO ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY BY DAY SHIFT.

FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO LARGER PORTION OF CWA
THROUGH THE WEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD AS STRONG UPPER S/WV PROGRESSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH INTRUSION OF
WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SUB-90 DEGREE HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MID-LATE WEEK IF CLOUDS CAN LINGER LONG ENOUGH
AFTER OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  96  73  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK        101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           99  73 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     97  76  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK        100  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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