Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 271742
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO END LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 10Z. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SNOW. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A HALF A MILE ARE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FROM KGAG TO KPNC.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE... DECENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
NARROW GRADIENT OF STOUT MID- LEVEL FORCING ALONG/NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX. REPORTS THROUGH 930AM OF ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS BANDING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
BAND ON KFDR... EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 INCH...
WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND WRN N TX. PROFILES CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
ACROSS CENTRAL OK... BUT BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG SRN
OK/NRN TX. HOWEVER... EXPECT SOME LIGHT... MAYBE SOME MODERATE
BURSTS OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z... BUT STILL
ONLY EXPECT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH FOR OKC METRO AND LOCATIONS ACROSS
NRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WAVE
PRODUCING THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. LATE TONIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST OR EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS APPROACHING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SHORTLY. THE MAIN ENERGY OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AREA TODAY. AN ADVISORY FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AREA WITH PART OF NORTH TEXAS LIKELY TO HAVE
CLOSER TO THIS HIGHER AMOUNT. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, A SECOND UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST FOR SNOW HERE. IT
APPEARS THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL REMAIN IN KANSAS WITH UP TO A
COUPLE INCHES LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BEFORE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER
IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD ALLOW WEAKER WAVES
THAT MAY PASS OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TO
PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXCEED FREEZING LATER SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER A WARMER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK FRONT MONDAY, STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND GIVE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OKLAHOMA LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  23  19  33  30 /  90  30  60  40
HOBART OK         23  18  31  28 / 100  30  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  25  23  34  32 / 100  70  50  40
GAGE OK           21  14  31  25 / 100  40  50  30
PONCA CITY OK     23  17  32  27 / 100  20  80  50
DURANT OK         27  24  35  33 / 100  70  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-
     009>036-038-040-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
     039-044>046-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ047-
     048-051-052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ042-
     043.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ084>090.

&&

$$

04/23/10


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