Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 271132
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A BAND/LINE OF -SHRA WILL AFFECT
KOKC AND KOUN 20-22Z...AS WELL AS POSSIBLY KLAW...KPNC...KHBR...
AND KHBR 17-21Z. THUS...ADDED MENTION. GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
-SHRA. TS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND 16Z...THEN NEAR KOKC AND KLAW
00-02Z...AND KSPS 02-05Z.

ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR AFTER 00Z EAST OF KEND-
KLTS...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL AGAIN OCCUR TODAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A CLINTON TO PONCA CITY LINE. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS...GENERALLY TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND WARM SIDE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WENT WITH THE HRRR FOR COLD
FRONT TIMING TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OR LINE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE
FORCING IS RATHER STRONG...THINK THE HRRR SOLUTION SEEMS
REASONABLE...SO ADDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES NEAR CLINTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY...TO STILLWATER. IF THIS MATERIALIZES...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. NOT SURE THIS WILL OCCUR AS
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY DID NOT DEPICT ANY QPF. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THIS
SEEMS DOUBTFUL AS THE CAP SHOULD HOLD.

TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...GENERALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO QUARTERS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...AND
THE HIGHER STORM CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS
EAST. KEPT RAIN CHANCES 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE EAST OF A ENID TO
ALTUS LINE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF SHAWNEE. ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A EAST WEST BAND OF OVER 0.50 INCH SOMEWHERE NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
AREA.

TUESDAY...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE
RED RIVER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WHICH WILL
BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS...
MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
RED RIVER CLOSE TO AND EAST OF I-35.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT PATCHY FROST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN RURAL
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE BY SUNDAY.

MBS

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS.

TODAY OCTOBER 27

OKLAHOMA CITY 86 1922
WICHITA FALLS 91 1938

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  52  70  44 /  30  20   0   0
HOBART OK         85  50  71  42 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  90  56  74  47 /   0  20   0   0
GAGE OK           75  41  68  35 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     82  46  70  39 /  20  30   0   0
DURANT OK         84  60  72  50 /   0  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/99/17



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