Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251004
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE MANY CONCERNS THIS MORNING REGARDING CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. FIRST...WE LOOK TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY OVER
FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING POTENTIAL OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING RAIN.

THIS MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NUDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
EXPECT MOST OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAY LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...THOUGH SOME AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY MAY SEE LITTLE
MORE THAN A DUSTING WITH THE EXTREMELY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT WE
EXPECT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TODAY...A STRONG FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW. SPOTTY
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE MAY OCCUR...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH WIND GUSTS IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE WINDS UPSTREAM
TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE NEXT SHOT OF WINTER WEATHER
WILL TAKE SHAPE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS VARY GREATLY ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH THE NAM...AS
USUAL...BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE. STILL...GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD AIR...AND RATHER LARGE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS...SOME
ACCUMULATIONS DO APPEAR LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...AREAS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE MORE. THIS IS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE...SO SUBSTANTIAL
DEVIATIONS IN AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH...AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE FORECAST
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE GETS EXTREMELY TRICKY...AND
DOWNRIGHT FRUSTRATING. SEVERAL RIPPLES WILL TRAVEL THROUGH THE
SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR AT LEAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MOST ANY DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR
PROBABLE NORTH OF I-40...BUT THIS IS GOING TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW
AND THIS WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AND SFC LOW SHOULD
ALLOW MOST PRECIP TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN...AND THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
PROLONGED FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STAY TUNED!

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  22  30  14 /   0  10  10  10
HOBART OK         56  23  32  14 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  27  37  18 /  20   0  10  20
GAGE OK           56  18  27   9 /  10  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     51  20  28   9 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         39  26  35  21 / 100   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ048-050>052.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ089-090.

&&

$$

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