Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230517
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1217 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
As expected, stratus has begun to develop. So far it has been
patchy at the TAF sites, but more widespread stratus is developing
and lurking just to the south and will begin to become more
widespread over the next few hours. Forecast moisture profiles
hint that the stratus may be slow to erode in the morning,
especially by August standards, so MVFR to IFR ceilings are
expected through much of the morning. Still expect some scattered
showers and thunderstorms, although the scattered coverage and
the uncertain timing make it difficult to focus on any specific
time to include a prob30 group in the TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 936 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

UPDATE...
Adjusted PoPs slightly through late tonight. Please see the
discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Moist convection from this evening has, unfortunately, finally
dissipated across southern OK and western north TX. However,
increased lift is already being observed over the low rolling
plains and west TX, which is associated with a mid level
shortwave trough. This feature will continue to lift northeastward
into SW OK during the overnight hours, likely spawning new
convection as the LLJ intensifies. PoPs have been adjusted
slightly for timing, but have changed little with regards to
categories. Some fog cannot be totally ruled out on the
northwestern fringe of current low level moisture plume across WNW
OK by morning, but confidence is too low at this time to mention
any especially with wind speeds remaining elevated. All updated
products have been sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  93  71  93 /  20  10  30  30
Hobart OK         74  93  68  92 /  30  20  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  74  95  71  95 /  20  10  20  20
Gage OK           73  92  63  83 /  30  40  50  40
Ponca City OK     77  93  69  89 /  20  20  50  40
Durant OK         74  95  72  96 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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