Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211447
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
947 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted precipitation chances for this morning and this
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Observing water vapor imagery this morning in addition to regional
radar mosaic, there is an increase in convergence across far north
central Oklahoma, and some light returns have revealed themselves
on KVNX in response. Therefore, could still see one or two
isolated showers/thunder move across a portion of far north
central Oklahoma through noon. Farther south, with the 500mb ridge
continuing to strengthen along the front range in response to the
large churning trough over the western United States, there is a
semblance of convergence manifesting east of the Llano Estacado in
north central Texas. With decent boundary layer moisture, cannot
rule out a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms developing
and moving into western north Texas this afternoon.

Made no changes to precip chances after 22/00Z (7 PM CDT). Still
anticipate strong to severe storms to develop along the forming
dryline over the Panhandles, with remaining convection moving into
far western Oklahoma later this evening.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR to VFR cigs are expected for the first half of today. Cigs
will then lift this afternoon to around 035-060. Thunderstorms
will try to move over GAG/WWR late tonight most likely after 02Z.
For now, will include PROB30s for this. Other terminals like HBR
and CSM may also experience TS near the end of the forecast
period. MVFR cigs will return late tonight for most of the
terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
It`s currently quiet across the region early this morning, with
fairly widespread stratus impacting OK. Satellite imagery is
indicating some subtle lift associated with mid level WAA on the
eastern fringe of the ridge axis across SW KS. This area of lift will
continue to shift eastward through the morning, with low chance
PoPs developing over northern OK near or just after sunrise within
mid level thetae ridge extending through Ponca City around 15Z.
Very little rainfall, if any, with this activity. Isolated
thunderstorms may try to develop early this afternoon over
portions of western north TX within unstable and uncapped airmass
as a mid level shortwave trough lifts northeastward. This activity
is expected to remain diurnal.

Late this afternoon and evening, moist convection is expected to
develop along a weakly forced dryline across the western TX
panhandle and slowly progress eastward into extreme western and
northwestern OK, and western north TX late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings across western north TX and
SW OK suggest elevated storms capable of producing hail up to the
size of golf balls will remain possible across this area through
tomorrow AM as a subtle mid level shortwave trough moves out of
west TX.

For tomorrow afternoon and evening, height falls will increase
over the dryline as a mid to upper trough traverses the Rockies.
Storms should initially develop over the TX panhandle and move
east overnight into central OK and western north TX. Severe storms
will be possible again, with a threat of large hail and damaging
winds. By late Monday morning, most of this activity should shift
east of I35. The dryline trend will continue for Monday afternoon
and evening, but this time initiation is expected over our western
zones. Slightly higher effective bulk shear should support a bit
more organization with the storms Monday afternoon and evening,
and when combined with very steep mid level lapse rates, large
hail up to the size of tennis balls will be possible.

The overall pattern will change very little through mid week, with
our area remaining within WSW mid to upper flow ahead of a digging
trough over the SW CONUS. Therefore, at least a chance of severe
weather will remain possible through most of the upcoming work
week as low level moisture continues to increase across the
Southern Plains. The most significant height falls should impact
the region Thursday through through early Friday as the mid to
upper low finally lifts NE into the Central and Southern Plains.
Increasing mid level flow associated with this feature should also
result in an increased severe threat Thursday afternoon through
late Thursday night. For now, the highest coverage of storms
appears it will be along and east of I35 Thursday, but would not
be surprised to see the moisture axis shift further west as the
upper trough axis is expected to west of the area during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  80  66 /  10  20  20  40
Hobart OK         82  66  81  67 /  10  30  40  40
Wichita Falls TX  84  66  83  68 /  10  20  40  50
Gage OK           79  65  82  64 /  20  30  30  40
Ponca City OK     77  63  82  67 /  30  30  20  40
Durant OK         83  64  81  67 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/09


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