Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 252319
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
619 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
An isolated thunderstorm southeast of KSPS should dissipate by
0100Z. Otherwise, the chances of thunderstorms affecting any
particular airport are very low through Wednesday afternoon. Winds
will generally follow a fairly typical diurnal variation, with
decreasing speeds and backing directions this evening/overnight,
followed by veering and increasing speeds Wednesday morning.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Hot temperatures will continue into tomorrow before some relief
across at least the northern Oklahoma beginning on Thursday. For
tomorrow, a ~595 dam mid-level ridge will remain centered across
the Southern Plains. High temperatures in the upper 90Fs to low
100Fs and dew points in the upper 60Fs to mid-70Fs will result in
heat indices >105F at some locations. Therefore, a heat advisory
remains in effect for locations along and east of Highway 81.

By tomorrow evening, a cold front is expected to enter northwest
Oklahoma with a chance of showers/thunderstorms along the front.
The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts because of large
DCAPE (>1000 J/kg) and temperature-dewpoint depressions (~40F).

An effective, convectively-enhanced cold front will shift
southward into Thursday. There is uncertainty on where the
effective front will be located Thursday afternoon, which will
modulate forecast high temperatures and the location of the
highest chance of showers/storms. Currently, expect the boundary
to be somewhere in central Oklahoma--perhaps near I-40 or I-44.

Therefore, the greatest confidence for heat advisory critera
being met is across southeast and south central Oklahoma (where
the heat advisory was extended through Thursday evening). The heat
advisory may have to be extended farther north into central
Oklahoma if the frontal timing is slower. Expect scattered
showers/storms along the boundary with the potential for damaging
wind gusts. This remnant boundary will continue to be a focus for
thunderstorms on Friday as well.

Through the weekend, the Plains will be placed within northerly
flow aloft with a high-amplitude ridge across the western
Contiguous United States. This will be favorable pattern for
cooler, more seasonable temperatures into early next week. In
addition, isentropic ascent and/or upslope flow may result in
complex of thunderstorms Saturday and/or Sunday night across the
High Plains. The northerly flow aloft may result in the complex
affecting western Oklahoma and adjacent parts north Texas.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  99  78  95 /   0   0  10  30
Hobart OK         77 100  78  97 /   0   0  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  78 100  78 101 /  10   0   0  10
Gage OK           78 102  73  88 /   0  20  40  40
Ponca City OK     78 101  77  92 /   0   0  30  30
Durant OK         76  97  77  99 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ007-008-012-
     013-018>020-024>031.

     Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     OKZ032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

14/23/23


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