Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161734 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1134 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...16/18Z TAF Issuance...
Breezy north winds will relax and become more northeasterly
through the afternoon at all sites. SCT to BKN mid-level ceilings
will persist through much of the period. SCT to BKN low level,
possibly MVFR, ceilings are expected to develop overnight, as
rain chances increase across the southern half of Oklahoma and
north Texas. A frontal boundary approaching from the northwest
Saturday morning, will result in a gradual wind shift to the
northwest late in the period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1049 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

Updated Temperature trends through the afternoon.

Temperatures continue to steadily warm across central and southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Persistent mid-level broken to
overcast clouds will continue through the afternoon. This will
have a marked impact on temperature trends. The few breaks have
allowed sites to climb into the upper 30Fs near 40F. Short range
solutions have been a bit more optimistic with afternoon highs,
but feel more confident in a bit more reserved forecast, but we
did increase highs a few degrees this afternoon. Low to mid 50s
across Texoma to the upper 40s in west central and central
Oklahoma to the mid 40s in the northwest.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

.Updated Aviation Discussion...

For the 12z TAFs:

A band of very light rain or sprinkles may impact airports in
southwest Oklahoma, western north Texas and possibly up into the
OKC/OUN area. This will diminish later this morning. Strong wind
gusts, in some cases near 35 knots, have began to decrease across
the region. Gusts to around 30 knots will remain possible,
especially at HBR/SPS/LAW through much of the morning before
diminishing later today. Lowering stratus will occur this evening,
possible to MVFR/IFR as rain begins in southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas this evening and spreads northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

The big story as we move into the weekend is increasing rain chances
with some elevated fire weather.

The weather pattern is becoming more active as a series of
shortwaves set up to make their way across the area. The first of
these has already brought a front across the area, bringing Fridays
maximum temperatures down into the 40s and lower 50s. The cold will
be short-lived, however, as southerly winds quickly return
late Friday evening, bringing back warm air and a surge of moisture.

Isentropic lift combined with this abundance of moisture should
produce significant rain chances for late tonight and early
Saturday. Another cold front will sweep away this moisture Saturday
afternoon with little to no effect on temperatures.

Moisture increases again Sunday and Monday setting us up for another
chance for precipitation. The North American Ensemble shows
precipitable water amounts reaching into the 3rd standard deviation
across southeast Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.

The lifting mechanism here will initially be isentropic lift Sunday
night. As we move into Monday, however, a dryline develops, which
may give some more focused lift supporting thunderstorms. Then as
you move into Tuesday, a front sweeps down, catching up with the
fleeing moisture in southeast Oklahoma. This is where lift will be
the strongest and moisture the most concentrated, so reserved the
highest QPFs and POPs for SE Oklahoma on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, the pattern continues to bring in moisture with
maybe some weak lifting mechanisms, resulting in some low POPs most
days. Friday looks to be the next good chance for significant
precipitation as another front sweeps through the area.

As far as the forecast grids go, I tried to line POPs up with the
relevant mesoscale features as well as NAEFS standard anomalies in
PW. Bumped QPF on Monday and Tuesday up a bit from guidance due to
the high confidence from NAEFS.



Oklahoma City OK  48  35  59  38 /  10  70  10   0
Hobart OK         48  36  63  38 /  10  70  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  50  37  64  39 /  10  80  20   0
Gage OK           45  35  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  33  59  35 /   0  50  10   0
Durant OK         53  39  59  39 /  10  80  60   0




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