Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 260621
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1221 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WIND GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 35 KT ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD SNEAK OVER SPS NEAR
SUNRISE...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN N TX. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW NEARING THE I44 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING.
STILL ANTICIPATE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND/AFTER 09Z. TO THE
NORTHWEST...WATER VAPOR...RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE MID LEVEL
ASCENT IS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING NM. BASED ON LATEST DATA FROM MOST NWP MODELS...MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED AROUND 12Z
ALONG OUR SJT CWA BORDER NEAR ARCHER...BAYLOR AND KNOX COUNTIES.
CONSIDERING THIS...AND MOISTURE PROFILES...POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THIS REGION. A WINTER
WX ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR EARLY TOMORROW AM FOR SLEET AND
SNOW...BUT BASED ON QPF AMOUNTS IT APPEARS ANY OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TX COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW THE 1 INCH
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT
APPEARS THE MODELS MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THEIR QPF
OUTPUT. ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE ELEVATED...COULD
BECOME SLICK AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.

BARNES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  15  28  20  33 /  10  20  30  40
HOBART OK         14  26  18  31 /  10  40  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  18  29  22  35 /  10  50  30  40
GAGE OK           10  21  14  31 /  20  40  30  50
PONCA CITY OK     10  26  17  33 /  10  10  20  50
DURANT OK         20  30  22  35 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>025-027-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ083>086.

&&

$$

03/03/03



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