Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 251035 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
535 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.AVIATION...18Z TAF Issuance...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Low to
mid-level few to scattered cumulus development is possible across
portions of the region this afternoon; primarily central and
southern Oklahoma. Winds will remain, overall, out of the south.
Winds will increase, primarily across western Oklahoma through the
afternoon, sustained between 10 and 15 kts, with the potential
for some brief gusts around 20kts. Winds will relax near and after



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

The primary forecast focus remains on the hot temperatures and
increasing rain chances beginning late Wednesday through the weekend.

This morning, fairly calm across the region, IR satellite reveals
some cirrus lingering over western north Texas. Temperatures remain
warm, upper 70s to lower 80s, and winds have been light, out of
the south. Similar conditions will last through sunrise.

A heat advisory will be in effect for this afternoon, for locations
along and east of the highway 81 corridor, basically all of central
and eastern Oklahoma. Heat index values will top out around 103 to
106 through the afternoon across portions of the central and eastern

Additionally, with dew points in the low 70s across southern
Oklahoma and Bufr soundings revealing a focus of low-level moisture,
around 850-800mb, there could be a possibility of one or two showers
in south central/southeastern Oklahoma, this afternoon. Not enough
confidence to make a mention in the forecast grids, but the day
shift will keep an eye on the cumulus evolution, today.

On Wednesday, temperatures will be warmer, with increased southerly
flow in response to an approaching surface trough off the western
high plains. Highs will reach 100 in several locations, with heat
index values across central and eastern Oklahoma ranging from 103 to
109. Therefore, will issue another heat advisory for Wednesday
afternoon, same timing and location as today, Tuesday.

Into Thursday, the forecast begins to transition from just hot to
warm with the possibility of scattered showers/thunder, near daily.
The 500mb ridge will hold, in some semblance, but weaken, as a
decent strength short wave trough slides across the northern plains
Wednesday into Thursday. In response, a broad surface trough will
advance across the southern plains, from northwest to southeast
through Thursday. The effective front will provide a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.

Thursday night the front will slow and consensus among long-term
guidance is for it to stall out near the Red River; lingering
between north Texas and southern Oklahoma through much of Friday
before exiting southward, with scattered rain chances persisting.

Into the Weekend, with a 500mb ridge building over the Inter-
mountain west, weak forcing for ascent will remain due to a
combination of weak surface fronts/troughs and isentropic ascent,
primarily across western Oklahoma into the Panhandles. Long range
guidance remains in decent agreement with this weak forcing set up,
so kept low rain chances going through the weekend.



Oklahoma City OK  97  75  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         98  77 100  78 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  78 100  78 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           98  77 101  74 /  10   0  10  40
Ponca City OK     98  76 101  78 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         94  76  97  77 /  10  10   0   0


OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ007-008-012-



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