Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250003
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
703 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
A broad line of thunderstorms will move across western and central
Oklahoma through the night tonight. New thunderstorms are expected
to form along a front in northwest Oklahoma before sunrise and
move south through the central Oklahoma during the morning and
into southern Oklahoma through the day Sunday. Gusty north winds
will follow the front. MVFR ceilings are expected in northern and
western Oklahoma behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall will be main concern next 36hrs.

Large upper low over Wyoming/Colorado will continue to move
slowly east this afternoon into this evening before lifting
northeast into the Northern Plains tonight into Sunday. Models
still depicting a large piece of this low remaining behind,
retrograding and closing off somewhere near the baja tomorrow.

As this occurs, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop across Oklahoma and western north Texas. Although
overall wind fields will be rather weak, sufficient instability
will be present late today into this evening for a few strong to
perhaps severe storms across approximately the western half of
the CWA.

As the northern part of the upper low moves through the
Northern Plains, a cold front will push south through Oklahoma
into Texas during the day on Sunday. This will bring cooler and
drier air into the area, which will limit the rain/thunder to Red
River valley by Sunday night.

Drier and cooler air will then overspread the area, resulting in
a couple of pleasant and more fall-like days early in the week.
High temperatures Monday/Tuesday will only climb into the 70s
with nighttime temperatures dropping into the upper 40s and lower
50s byTuesday morning.

The upper low over the baja is expected to lift northeast
through southern and central Rockies into the plains by late in
the week. This may result in a few showers across northwest
Oklahoma by late Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, temperatures
will warm back to into the low/mid 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  69  75  57 /  60  90  80  30
Hobart OK         84  68  74  57 /  70  80  80  30
Wichita Falls TX  87  70  78  59 /  60  80  90  50
Gage OK           83  61  71  50 /  60  60  30   0
Ponca City OK     85  67  73  53 /  60  90  70  10
Durant OK         90  72  84  63 /  30  40  70  40

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/09/09


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