Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 290327
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MODELS
WOULD INDICATE THAT CURRENT ISOLATED STORMS WILL END AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z WHILE OTHERS INDICATE ISO STORMS COULD REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT... EITHER WAY CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS ATT BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED LAST MINUTE
CHANGES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ALONG AND S
OF I-40 BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN MOST TAFS ATT AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT ON KVNX RADAR OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF KANSAS. INTERACTION
OF THESE BOUNDARIES IN A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS
ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION SHOULD KILL
OFF THE STORMS BY MIDNIGHT...DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE THE 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE STILLWATER/PONCA CITY AREA AFTER
06Z.

AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED...EXCEPT AS NOTED REGARDING POPS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OK THROUGH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG A WIND SHIFT/SFC BOUNDARY. LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF OVER 1300 J/KG INDICATE
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES AT NEARLY 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT NEARLY 8
C/KM INDICATE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A RISK. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH 25-27C 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND 28-31C ON WEDNESDAY. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL
HAS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH A TROUGH
OVERHEAD A DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FRONT. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  94  70  96 /  10  20  20   0
HOBART OK         68  96  69  98 /  10  20  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  96  72  97 /  10  20  30   0
GAGE OK           66  94  66  97 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  93  69  98 /  20   0   0  10
DURANT OK         68  94  71  95 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/25/25


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