Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 240801
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TODAY WILL WORK WITH A DRYLINE
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE FEATURES WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROUGH FROM AN UPPER LOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER, A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE
OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
HAIL- PRODUCING SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED MONDAY ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME SHOWERS OR
ISOLATE THUNDER MAY OCCUR LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY EAST OF I-35.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY
OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
PROVIDE STRONG DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST, LIKELY EAST OF THE
WESTERN BORDER COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA, BEFORE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ANY INVERSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVERCOME BY INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT BY LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NORTH- SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
OR INCREASE STRENGTH OF STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED. WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY, WEAK RIDGING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL GIVE A REPRIEVE. HOWEVER, THE NEXT
SYSTEM MAY GIVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STORMS/RAIN FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE AND NEARBY AFTER
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, AND LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD CHANCES
OR LIKELY RAIN THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT AFTER SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  62  84  65 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         81  58  86  61 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  62  89  65 /   0  10   0   0
GAGE OK           85  53  83  56 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     80  61  81  64 /  30  30  20  20
DURANT OK         79  64  81  68 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09



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