000
FXUS64 KOUN 172332
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
532 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BE RATHER
GUSTY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING HAS KEPT TEMPS A BIT COOLER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW AS SWRLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION...BRINGING MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S TO
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THURSDAY.

THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...WITH THE FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY EVENING...AND SURGING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE COLD...BLUSTERY AND DRY. THIS WILL CHANGE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS CONFIGURATION
WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID TRANSPORT OF BOTH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...REINTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NEARER THE SFC LOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN DEVELOP...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS UNLIKELY. OUR FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHEN AND WHERE WINTRY PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WET BULB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY...SO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR PROBABLE NORTH
OF I-44...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL BUT EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...SO MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR...AND SOME ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THOUGH
ITS TOO EARLY TO FORECAST EXACT AMOUNTS. BY SUNDAY...THE SFC AND
UPPER LOWS WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES FILLING INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

WHERE SNOW MANAGES TO ACCUMULATE...IMPRESSIVELY LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR EARLY MONDAY GIVEN PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS. A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS SOUTH WIND RETURN...BUT ANOTHER STOUT FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  66  47  65 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         34  63  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  36  70  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           30  68  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  66  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
DURANT OK         40  59  49  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$