000
FXUS64 KOUN 230853
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
353 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Last evenings convection dissipated over northwest Oklahoma which
resulted in a heat burst being detected at the Arnett Mesonet
site. Was somewhat unusual event in that there was not
substantial low level jet, and the stronger gusts (25 to 35 mph)
were from the north and northeast. Temperature/dewpoint was
respectable.

Cold front making its way into far northwest Oklahoma early this
morning with a steady progression south and east through the day
expected. Some acceleration possible late this morning and this
afternoon as s/wv trough currently moving through Colorado
progresses eastward. This trough will also allow scattered storms
to develop near and north of the front. Cooling/impacts already
being seen with convective trends from eastern Colorado south and
east into the OK/TX Panhandles. Confidence not high that we will
see storms all day, with perhaps a lull in activity mid morning to
early afternoon and then redevelopment as strong central/southern
Oklahoma 700-600 inversion erodes. Various runs of the WRF most
aggressive at cooling mid-level temperatures and thus produces
widespread vigorous convection across much of southern Oklahoma
into northern Texas this evening and tonight. Thinking this may be
overdone given spread of high-res forecast soundings. We will have
highest PoPs across far southern Oklahoma and northern Texas where
convergence just north of surface front will coincide with mid
level cooling this evening/tonight.

With developing northwest flow tomorrow through early next week,
rain chances will stay mainly over far western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of northern Texas. However, majority if not all
rain may stay west of our CWA on higher terrain. By midweek, flow
becomes more zonal resulting in return to more of a southerly wind
component and increase in temperatures and dewpoints. Passing
s/wvs in fast flow to our north may allow for Kansas convection to
build down into low level jet Tuesday night through Wednesday
night and affect northern/central Oklahoma. There are hints at a
stronger and higher amplitude trough to move through central U.S.
late next week but timing differences among models will preclude
inclusion of PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  61  82  60 /  40  30  10  10
Hobart OK         88  62  81  62 /  40  30  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  96  65  81  64 /  40  40  40  30
Gage OK           80  57  80  59 /  30  10  10  20
Ponca City OK     82  59  82  59 /  40  10   0  10
Durant OK         94  66  81  64 /  40  60  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11