000
FXUS64 KOUN 190245 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN OK EARLIER DUE TO
AN ONGOING HEATBURST IN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A VERY BUSY FEW DAYS
WRT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE
SCALE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

FOR TODAY... CAPPING INVERSION HAS HELD THINGS IN CHECK... BUT
MIDDAY SOUNDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOW ONLY MINIMAL CAP STILL
REMAINING. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS... SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MAIN SFC BOUNDARIES RESIDING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE
MAIN BODY OF THE STATE WITH AFTN STORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND MORE LIKELY AFFECTING CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH END SEVERE STORMS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SFC
BOUNDARIES DOWN AND KEEP MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN
THE RISK ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE PARTICULARS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS THE DAY/NIGHT BEFORE.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM/HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE SFC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  90  66  87 /  70  30  50  50
HOBART OK         65  95  63  94 /  60  20  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  98  67  97 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           61  88  56  84 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  64  84 /  60  50  60  50
DURANT OK         69  88  71  88 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>007-
     010>012-015.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02