Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 261952
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION... AFTN HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 19Z SFC
ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MADE IT TO
THE SOUTHERN RIO GRAND VALLEY... WITH A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THIS EVENING... BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX... SLOWLY RELAXING
AND BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRI MORNING. IN RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ON FRIDAY... WITH
LOWS FRI AM DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NRN OK... WITH A FEW
SITES POSSIBLY DIPPING NEAR FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHS WILL
BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY... IN THE MID 60S IN OK TO THE LOW 70S
IN WRN N TX FOR TMRW.

EXPECT A SLOW WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND S/SW LL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION. ONE CAVEAT
OF THIS INTO SUNDAY IS THE DIVERGENCE OF MID/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OFF THE SO-
CAL COAST THAN THE ECMWF OR CANADIAN. THIS PLAYS A ROLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL... AS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TUE INTO THU AS
THIS H500 WAVE ADVANCES ACROSS NM AND W TX AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE REGION. WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS... THE
ECMWF PRIMARILY KEEPS MOST PRECIP SOUTH IN TX WHILE THE GFS LIFTS
PRECIP ACROSS OK... AND A LOT OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF... WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT ON THE GFS. GIVEN
DISPARITY BETWEEN GUIDANCE AND THE ADVANCED TIME FRAME... WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TUE INTO WED.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  63  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         38  67  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  70  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           35  70  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     36  58  42  70 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         41  66  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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