Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221745
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BAND OF SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
TSRA...BUT CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE VERY LOW.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN SOME OF THE EXPANSE OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHRA...AND THIS WILL PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE TAFS HIGHLIGHT THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR OCCURRENCE OF SHRA...BUT SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z AT ALL SITES...AND UNTIL ABOUT 18Z
AT KPNC. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT ANY SUCH CONDITIONS WOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED AND ISOLATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOWERED MAX TEMPS AND EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE INCOMING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE. HRRR IS SHOWING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO EXPANDED POPS EASTWARD A BIT. OVERALL COVERAGE STILL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT SPOTTY...SO OPTED NOT TO RAISE POPS MUCH AT THIS
POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.
BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 18-23Z.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 22Z-4Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A
TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG. MOST OF THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WILL GENERALLY PHASE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO/COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOME STORMS.

AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. THE EC IS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AS IT HAS BEEN WITH THE LAST FEW
SYSTEMS. THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE WEAK...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CHANCES LOW FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT (MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  57  80  56 /  20  40  10   0
HOBART OK         78  57  81  57 /  50  40   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  81  59  82  57 /  30  30  10   0
GAGE OK           74  54  79  51 /  40  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     79  59  78  55 /  20  50  20   0
DURANT OK         79  55  76  56 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/23/23



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