Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171532
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEANED UP PRECIP/WX FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REPORTS
CONTINUE TO COME IN OF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN OK.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS... SOME DECENT WETBULBING CONTINUES
SUB-CLOUD LAYER... HOWEVER... SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE REGION... EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH CENTRAL OK... WHERE
TEMPS HAVE HOVERED NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OK... EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN
RAIN. HOWEVER... RAIN/SLEET MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR
NRN OK WITH ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY THAT REACHES THAT FAR NORTH.
CONTINUE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER... AS SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MAINLY NEAR OUN/OKC AND
PNC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO AT LEAST IFR BY TONIGHT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL ALSO RESULT IN
VIS RESTRICTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN N TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...A MID TO UPPER DRY SLOT WILL
MOVE OVER SW OK AND WESTERN N TX. IT WILL THEN PASS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL OK RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND WEST OF I35. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE TO KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED IN...PRESENT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END.
HOWEVER...LOW CHANCES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THROUGH THE DAY. THE PREVIOUS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW
AVG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I44. LOW PRECIP CHCS WILL
CONTINUE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AGREEMENT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
FEATURE SO HAVE DECREASED AND NUDGED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL
THINK ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER.

IT WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE THROUGH FRI WITH CLOUD COVER
PRESENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND MUCH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SLIDING
OVERHEAD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL FINALLY RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARM UP
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A DIGGING DEEP UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  41  38  44  38 /  60  50  40  20
HOBART OK         41  38  45  38 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  41  51  40 /  60  30  10  30
GAGE OK           42  36  41  33 /  30  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  34  41  34 /  50  60  40  10
DURANT OK         43  40  48  43 /  80  70  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26



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