Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 230007
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
707 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the day Monday with light
winds becoming north and gusty after a frontal passage Monday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on steady temperatures and a stout frontal
passage to close out the week.

After a stormy night, it`s been a beautiful day across the region.
Highs in the mid to upper 60s, light winds settling in, seriously a
banner day.

Overnight, surface high pressure will linger, before sliding south
and east ahead of an approaching frontal boundary midday, Monday.
Highs will reach the 70s ahead of the dry frontal passage pushing in
through the afternoon and overnight. Winds will increase behind the
front, with gusts 20 to 25 mph out of the north, with lows overnight
in the 40s by Tuesday morning.

With the 500mb trough deepening considerably across the eastern
United States, from the Great Lakes to the Gulf, the plains will
remain under a northwest flow regime, keeping temperatures cool on
Tuesday, highs in the mid/low 60s, again. Wednesday into Thursday,
we`ll get a quick warm up as a 500mb short wave traverses the
primary flow off the Rockies, and pushes towards the plains. Ahead
of this feature, south/southwesterly boundary layer flow will
increase in response to an expansive surface high over the Texas
Gulf Coast into the southern plains. The warmest day this week will
be Thursday, as temperatures reach the lower 80s in western north
Texas to the mid 70s in Oklahoma. As with most warm days in mid-
fall, this is due to an approaching frontal boundary and upper level
trough. So this quick warm up will give way to frontal passage
Thursday night, with lows Friday morning in the low to mid 30s in
northwestern Oklahoma to the mid 40s along the Red River. Didn`t go
freezing or below just yet, but it will be chilly Friday Morning.
Additionally, north winds behind the front will be strong and
guidance seems to be under-doing it. Went ahead and up the winds
speeds Thursday night into Friday, with gusts in western and
southwestern Oklahoma around 25 to 35 mph.

The cooler temperatures will stick around through Friday into
Saturday as a strong 500mb trough continues to churn across the
Midwest. It looks like we`ll finally have our first decent freeze,
at least for northern and northwestern Oklahoma, with a few hours of
at and below freezing temperatures, Saturday Morning. Lows in the
far northwest and north central could dip below 30, into the upper
20s, for a few hours.

Of note, there is a small chance of precipitation, rain, with the
frontal boundary Friday, across southern Oklahoma into north Texas,
but any amounts will be light.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  47  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         70  47  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  70  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           70  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  46  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  49  78  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/09/09


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