Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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880
FXUS64 KOUN 270453
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
thunderstorms are expected to continue to weaken overnight
with decreasing severe potential.

two main clusters of storms near the kansas and oklahoma
state line as well as across central oklahoma will move east over
the next few hours...bringing perhaps some reports of marginally
severe hail near quarter size and a few wind gusts near 60 mph.
heavy rainfall and localized flooding are the bigger concerns with
this activity as it moves east and likely weakens over the next
few hours as it moves into a more stable airmass.

some additional storms may form over western oklahoma and western
north texas late tonight as mid and upper level forcing increases
ahead of an approaching mid/upper low. these storms would have a
low chance of being severe with wind and hail.

it appears the tornado threat has diminished to near zero for the
rest of tonight.

products have been updated.

aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.

mbs

&&

.AVIATION...
Have low confidence in the TAFs. Overall...think VFR conditions
will occur.

Some MVFR conditions are possible across the area...mainly
11-16z...but not sure exactly where and when.

Isolated to numerous TSRA will occur across Oklahoma and north
Texas for the next 24 hours. Determining exactly where and when
this activity occurs remain uncertain.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

UPDATE...
adjusted rain chances tonight...mainly to increase them in
western oklahoma...and decrease them near and east of i-35.

DISCUSSION...
severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue tonight
mainly over western oklahoma and western north texas. severe
threat is much lower near and east of i-35 tonight.

latest radars indicated two main clusters of severe storms...
one near woodward and cheyenne...and another near frederick
and vernon. these storms will continue to push east for
the next several hours...but will move into a more capped
and more stable airmass with lower instability across
the central third of oklahoma. overall...think these storms
will weaken over the next few hours.

still think large hail...damaging winds...and very heavy rainfall
are the main hazards with these storms for the next few hours in
western oklahoma and western north texas. tornado risk appears to
be fairly low and only confined to western oklahoma and western
north texas.

products will be updated shortly.

mbs

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With the exception of far northwest Oklahoma, most of the western
third of Oklahoma and adjacent area of northern Texas are clear
to partly cloudy. Weak height falls will overspread the
Panhandles late this afternoon and evening in advance of a trough
over Colorado/New Mexico. At least widely scattered thunderstorms
should develop along and near a dryline in extreme western
Oklahoma/far eastern Texas panhandle. Extreme instability and deep
layer shear will result in supercells capable of producing very
large hail...damaging RFD winds and perhaps tornadoes. With better
forcing compared with the past few days...storms should become
scattered perhaps widespread during the evening and overnight. By
late evening and overnight the main severe weather risk will be
damaging winds and hail.

Most model suggest storms will be ongoing across at least south
central and southeast Oklahoma Friday morning. There should be enough
recovery by Friday afternoon, to see widely scattered severe
storms.

Weak shortwave ridging Friday night through Saturday may provide
a lull in thunderstorm activity as the holiday weekend begins.

Thunderstorm chances will return by Sunday and last through at
least mid week. The overall flow Sunday into Monday will be rather
weak...but moderate to high instability may result in severe
thunderstorms each day.

A weak cold front may move across the Southern Plains Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This may bring some brief relief from rather
high humidity currently in place.

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...High Wind Warning until midnight CDT tonight for OKZ023-024-027.

TX...None.
&&

$$

25/17/17



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