Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261135 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
635 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
26/12 TAFs. VFR conditions expected to continue through forecast
period. Expect showers over Kansas to stay northeast of KPNC and
for most of redevelopment of West Texas showers and storms to stay
south of KSPS. Decrease in overall cloud cover with light east
to southeast winds through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and perhaps a brief weak storm possible through
the morning hours across southern and northern portions of
Oklahoma. With weakening expected next several hours, central
parts of Oklahoma expected to stay dry. Hard to tie showers over
southern Oklahoma to anything other than lingering mid-level moist
layer, with activity over southern Kansas into far northern
Oklahoma an extension of passing wave/speed max moving around
Great Lakes upper low. Stalled frontal boundary extending
east/west just north of I-40 expected to retreat north this
afternoon and should take primary focus of afternoon convection up
into Kansas.

Developing MCV associated with southern Texas Panhandle
dissipating MCS may have impacts on southwest portions of our CWA
this afternoon allowing higher chances of convection. PoPs were
raised a bit across western north Texas but majority of additional
storms should be south of our CWA.

Strong trough still progd to move through northern and Central
Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday, which will support keeping low
PoPs across far northern Oklahoma. Otherwise, overall warming
trend and dry conditions through the week. Next opportunity for
organized rain activity still appears to be Friday into the
weekend with arrival of another strong cold front. Still some run
to run inconsistencies and overall agreement among medium range
models. Therefore, confidence is still somewhat low on areas of
highest chances for rain. Model trends would suggest mainly
northern/northeast parts of Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  65  88  71 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         84  66  89  71 /  20  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  84  67  89  71 /  30  20  10  10
Gage OK           84  65  89  72 /  20  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     85  64  88  73 /  10  20  10  10
Durant OK         85  66  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11



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