Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 202310
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
510 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
Gusty south winds will continue overnight and will become quite
strong by late morning across much of the area. Gusts over 35kts
are possible, especially across western Oklahoma sites after 17Z.
Stratus will develop back north/northwest tonight and may impact
some sites for a short time. Will introduce a tempo group for
MVFR ceilings for a few hours at PNC/OKC/OUN/LAW/SPS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus was on the forecast through the next 24 to 48 hours.

Moisture will continue to deepen tonight as southerly winds continue
across the region. Meanwhile, upper system will move across the
SW U.S. approaching the region tonight with the upper low moving
into the Central Plains Sunday. This system will cause a Pacific
front to move across the area Sunday with the cold front Sunday
night.

With deepening moisture, especially in eastern parts of the fa,
showers and drizzle will be possible late tonight into Sunday before
drier air moving into the region pushes the precipitation east of
the fa. A few storms could also be possible in southeast portions of
the fa. Enough instability could develop that a storm or two may
become strong to marginally severe.

Breezy southwest/west winds will be possible behind the pacific
front Sunday afternoon. A wind advisory may be needed for western
portions of the fa for these winds but there is some uncertainty how
fast the winds will be so will let later shifts decide. Stronger
winds could be possible behind the cold front on Monday so a wind
advisory may be needed for parts of the area on Monday too.

The air behind the cold front is not extremely cold but will knock
temperatures down compared to this weekend. However, temperatures
will still be above normal for this time of year next week. Models
show another storm system towards the end of next week that could
bring another chance of precipitation to parts of the fa.

Fire Weather...
Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions will be possible
Sunday across southwest portions of the fa with elevated to near
critical conditions possible across most of the rest of the area.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 60s and 70s across much
of the area Sunday afternoon. Dry air will move into the region
from west to east Sunday with humidities forecasted to get as low
as the teens in SW portions of the fa. The warm temperatures, low
rh, and breezy winds will lead to the increased fire weather
conditions. Will issue a Red Flag Warning for parts of western OK
& western north TX where these conditions are the most certain.
There are still some uncertainty on how low humdities will get and
how strong winds will be across the rest of the fa so will leave
the rest of the Fire Weather Watch as is and let later shift
decide.

Increased fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday as well
mainly because of the northwest winds behind the cold front and
despite the cooler temperatures, with near critical to critical
fire weather conditions possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  63  36  52 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         43  65  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  70  35  58 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           38  58  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  64  35  48 /  10  20   0  10
Durant OK         57  69  41  56 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for OKZ004>020-023>030-039>041-045-046-050.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for OKZ021-022-
     033>038-044.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

04/30/01



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