Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 282337
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
TAFS 2900/3000Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GAG/WWR...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  IN FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY FORM
ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY IMPACTING GAG/WWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE 15-20
KNOTS...SO EXPECT ANY STORM ORGANIZATION TO BE LIMITED. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1800 J/KG INDICATE THAT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.

AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSE TO OR NEAR 105F.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALSO TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST.
THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAIN. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY MID-WEEK.

MAHALE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  96  73  93 /   0  10  20  30
HOBART OK         74  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  98  75  98 /   0   0  10  20
GAGE OK           71  91  69  88 /  20  30  50  40
PONCA CITY OK     75  94  71  89 /  10  20  30  30
DURANT OK         76  99  76  99 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ026-030>032-
     042-043-047-048-051-052.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
     018>020-048-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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