Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s overnight with no change
in airmass. Winds will remain light southerly, and probably more
variable near the Colorado line. A similar abrupt warmup is
forecast Friday across the southwestern half of the area, as
temperatures once again warm into the low 70s, with more limited
50s in central Kansas. Cirrus may begin to overspread the area
again as the day progresses in advance of the next system to
affect our region late in the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

The next winter storm affecting the central High Plains leaves a
large amount of uncertainty for our area of southwest Kansas.
Although the current NAM model is the most robust with respect to
snow amounts across our area, the ECMWF has been quite limited in
the amount of snow farther south in Kansas, owing largely to the
temperatures in the near surface layer, as well as timing and
placement of the stronger frontogenesis. WPC`s precipitation has
sided closer with the EC`s further north solution for the heavier
snow band, which seems reasonable, since the system would probably
need to dig further south to have enough cold air across sw KS for
significant snow amounts. Still, a changeover to snow is likely by
the afternoon, while the better frontogentic forcing is beginning
to lift north into Nebraska. We held off on winter weather
headlines for now and will need to see how the models may converge
on a solution. Either way the surface winds will be strong post
cold frontal, around 30 mph with gusts near 40. Best locations for
snow accums at this time area along he northwestern periphery of
our area (Syracuse- Dighton- Wakeeney/Hays).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Light winds are expected through the period with VFR conditions.
Only some high cloud AOA150 can be expected at the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  63  30  44 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  27  65  27  38 /   0   0   0  50
EHA  32  72  35  45 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  28  69  33  47 /   0   0   0  30
HYS  26  53  27  38 /   0   0  10  60
P28  30  61  34  55 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch


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