Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131803
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Short range models indicate the large scale closed off upper level
low dropping further southeast into the Great Lakes Region tonight
while upper level ridging remains locked in across the Intermountain
West. A near stationary frontal boundary in the Texas panhandle will
serve focus for thunderstorm development this evening as an H5 vort
maxima moves southeast off the Colorado Rockies into the South
Plains. With plenty of moisture in place, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out along the Oklahoma border in southwest Kansas
tonight. A more significant H5 vort lobe is projected to cycle
around the closed low in the Great Lakes Monday, moving southeast
across the Upper Midwest. An attendant frontal boundary will push
southward across western Kansas by Monday afternoon providing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions of
central and western Kansas. As the H5 vort max swings southeast
across the Upper Midwest, an associated +80kt jet will shift
southward into northern and central Kansas increasing dynamic
support aloft. Combined with developing steep low/mid level
lapse rates and CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/Kg, thunderstorms
will be possible late Monday morning through the afternoon time
period. However, severe weather is not expected with less than
favorable shear profiles expected according to NAM/GFS model
soundings.

Near normal temperatures are likely tonight with little change
expected to the air mass across the Western High Plains. Look for
lows well down into the 60s(F) across west central and much of
southwest Kansas with the lower 70s(F) still a possibility in
south central Kansas. Again, with little change to the resident
air mass in place, high temperatures are expected well up into
the 80s(F) Monday afternoon with a few 90s(F) possible in the
south before an approaching cold front begins to push through
mid to late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

The well advertised cold upper trough will continue to swing
southward from the Great Lakes and into the Central Plains into
Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will continue into Monday, with
mainly rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into Tuesday. Upper
level shortwave energy on the west side of the trough, will move
across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and will bring the best
chances for rainfall across western Kansas. Rain chances begin to
wain Thursday, with a warming trend, as the wave moves east. Another
chance for thunderstorms begins again by next Weekend with a
northern branch upper level trough.

For Monday, the best chances for thunderstorms are across far
southwestern Kansas, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. For
Tuesday, rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm increase, with
lots of clouds and highs only in the mid 70s. Wednesday looks to be
coolest with cloudy skies and rain showers becoming likely, with
highs only in the mid to upper 60s. A warming trend then begins
again Thursday into the Weekend, with highs warming from the 70s
back to around 90. Overnight lows through this extended period will
be mainly in the 50s, then warming back to the 60s by the Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Winds will remain light and variable through early Monday
morning as well as surface high pressure moves southeast off the high
plains of eastern Colorado into western Kansas during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  88  58  76 /  20  30  30  50
GCK  67  87  58  75 /  20  30  30  50
EHA  67  87  60  75 /  30  30  50  50
LBL  67  88  61  76 /  20  30  50  50
HYS  67  86  59  75 /  10  30  20  50
P28  70  91  60  78 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson





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