Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281116
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
516 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SEE A RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN KANSAS COMPARED TO BIGGER CHANGES EXPECTED
STARTING VERY LATE TONIGHT. SPECIFICALLY, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DOMINATE OVER NORTH AMERICA TODAY WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. A POTENT WAVE WITH
AN ASSOCIATED 130-KT JET STREAK RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL HELP DISLODGE A LARGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR OUT OF
CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE LEE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER, OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, DESPITE STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON,
COLD AIR WILL SIMPLY RECIRCULATE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN
THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BUT WILL AIM FOR LOWS AROUND 10 WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIR WEST
OF HIGHWAY 83...TO NEAR 20 AROUND PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
AND DOME OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FELT
BEHIND IT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IN
THE AFTERNOON SPREADING SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT. A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
20S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
THE FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL EVENING. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE CHANCE OF
SNOW ENDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS WITH
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO
THE TEENS WITH A FEW PLACES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS NOT EVEN
MAKING IT OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS TOWARDS SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL EVEN FURTHER IF CLOUDS DECREASE
FASTER THAN EXPECTED CREATING MAX RADIATION COOLING. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. HIGHS REBOUND TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LOWER 20S POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
IS SUGGESTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM BUT IF MODELS REMAIN LIKE
THEY ARE NOW, SOME PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS COULD RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE SNOW. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  17  30   8 /   0   0  20  30
GCK  36  13  25   5 /   0   0  30  40
EHA  37  17  29   7 /   0   0  20  30
LBL  37  15  30   9 /   0   0  20  30
HYS  37  17  25   4 /   0   0  30  40
P28  43  20  37  14 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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