Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222355
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
655 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A shift to north winds will develop overnight as the next weak cold
front moves through the High Plains, driven by a sharp upper trough
moving through the Missouri Valley. Temperatures will not be
anywhere near as cold as the previous night. Even the colder NAMmos
guidance indicates above freezing temperatures in the Ark valley
west of DDC to the CO line while most model output only drops lows
into the mid 40s. Given the dry conditions, the raw models might be
slightly too cool for highs on Monday afternoon, which the MOS
consensus is warmer than by a few degrees especially west. Highs
ranges however should be in the mid 60s west to lower 70s east as
weakening BL cold advection persists though the afternoon. The
consensus of the models and MOS shows best chances for freezing
temperatures near 32 degrees still across the western 1/3 to 1/2
of the area for Monday night/Tuesday morning, and area that has
already experienced several instances of non-hard freezing
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Quite a range of fall-like temperatures will be found through the
extended period this week, from above normal to hard freeze range.
Northwest flow regime across the High Plains will be couple with an
upper trough across the upper Midwest phasing with the last system
that exited Kansas yesterday, to form a closed low in the Ohio
valley. A breezy afternoon with gusty winds should redevelop
Tuesday, before slacking off due to broad high surface pressure
Wednesday night and early Thursday. Lighter west downslope flow
Wednesday and dry air should warm easily into the 70s. Another
stronger cold front with a equatorward moving anticyclone on
Thursday will bring subfreezing overnight temperatures to the
region for the weekend, while limiting afternoon to the 50s Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Light southwesterly winds will slowly veer to a westerly direction
by early Monday morning, with speeds through early morning in the
6 to 10 knot range. The next cold front will push south quickly
mid to late morning, with a fairly sharp increase in wind speeds
to the 15 to 20 knot range, sustained. Peak afternoon winds will
be sustained in the 20 to 25 knot range, strongest up at HYS,
where gusts will likely be in the mid 30s knots as well. The very
dry atmosphere will continue to yield VFR category for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Mixing and dry advection near the surface should combine to drive
surface dewpoints into the upper 20s Monday afternoon. With the
combined gusty surface winds, the fire weather risk will be elevated
across most of the area. Sections of central Kansas could see
conditions approaching the red flag threshold, and outdoor burning
in strongly discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  70  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  68  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  66  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  69  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  46  67  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  72  42  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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