Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280813
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
313 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...Updated Short term, Long term and Hydro Discussions

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

A weak warm front is forecast to lift northeast today across
southwest Kansas. Models differ on just how far north this frontal
boundary will move by late day but given the late day instability
expected over western Kansas along with a wedge of low level
moisture just north of this front am a little concerned about a
the potential for a few afternoon thunderstorms. One negative
factor will be the warming mid level temperatures so am currently
leaning towards scattered to widely scattered late day a
convection near and north of this boundary. The better opportunity
for widespread precipitation will occur early tonight as cluster
of thunderstorms precede the next upper level disturbance that
will be crossing the central plains between 18z Thursday and 06z
Friday. High precipitable water continues to support heavy
rainfall with these storms tonight. In addition to the heavy
rainfall..strong damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph and two inch or
larger hail will be possible. The hail potential appears mainly to
be confined to the late day and early evening period.

Temperatures today will range from the mid 90s south of the
surface boundary to the upper 80s to around 90 north of this
boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

There will continue to be a chance for thunderstorms through the
first half of the weekend period as a few more upper level
disturbances embedded in the northwest flow crosses the central
Plains.

The Mid levels will continue to warm through the weekend period
and by late Saturday an upper level ridge axis will begin to move
east into the Rockies. The area more favorable for late day and
overnight convection will gradually shift eastward towards central
Kansas through the weekend period as a warming trend begins for
western Kansas. Highs approaching 100 degrees near the Oklahoma
border in southwest Kansas will be possible on Sunday. Highs are
expected across all of western Kansas to be near 100 degrees for
the start of next week.

By Tuesday a surface cold front will move south into western
Kansas as an upper level trough is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF
to cross the northern Plains. This should bring the a chance for
precipitation back to western Kansas Tuesday or Wednesday along
with a brief break in the warming trend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Convection moving across northwest Kansas as of 05z is forecast
to weak but still cross portions of southwest and north central
Kansas late tonight. Based on the latest HRRR this area of
weakening convection is expected to cross the Hays and Garden City
areas between 07z and 10z. If these storms hold together they will
cross the Dodge City area between 10z and 12z Thursday. Ceilings
may briefly lower into the MVFR category early this morning with
these storms. Based on the NAM and HRRR model soundings around 12z
the fog potential overnight appears small.

A cluster of thunderstorms, some capable of producing heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds, will be possible at all three taf
sites after 21z Thursday. Track and timing is still somewhat
unclear so will not get too detailed on this.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Models this morning remain in good agreement with a cluster of
thunderstorms crossing western Kansas early tonight. These storms
will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with rainfall
rates of one to two inches an hour being possible. On average
rainfall amounts overnight will range from 0.25 to 1.5 inches,
however in the steadier and heavier showers rainfall totals in
excess of 3 inches can be expected. At this time a flash flood or
flood watch for western Kansas does not appear warranted but
ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas will be
possible wherever these heavier showers do develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  66  86  66 /  20  90  30  20
GCK  92  66  84  65 /  20  80  20  20
EHA  96  66  89  66 /  10  40  20  20
LBL  97  69  89  67 /  10  50  20  20
HYS  89  65  83  65 /  60  70  20  20
P28  95  69  88  69 /  20  70  40  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
HYDROLOGY...Burgert



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