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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200759 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A MODEST +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE IS ENTERING THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS
STRENGTHENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, THIS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOES
EXIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TIME FRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT ISN`T EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS
CAPPING ERODES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHT, THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE THAT IS PROJECTED TO ADVANCE EAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORM
THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING QUARTER TO
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS A PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND THE MID
20S(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(C) ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 90S(F) TO
NEAR 100F THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FURTHER
WEST. SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THIS MORNING GOING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S(F) TO THE
LOWER 70S(F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

FOR FRIDAY, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PART OF KANSAS FROM LAKIN TO HUGOTON AND WEST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS CAPPED OFF IN
THE MID LEVELS THAT SHOULD NEGATE THUNDER CHANCES. IT WILL BE WINDY
WITH POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO
15 PERCENT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT INTO THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY EVENING. WILL
MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MAINLY WEST OF
A LAKIN TO HUGOTON LINE. A STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
VERY WINDY DAY AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSE IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

FOR SUNDAY, THE ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO GET SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WILL MAINTAIN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
IN WITH SOME SHORTWAVES ENTERING THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. 850MB
TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 30 CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AROUND 68 TO 75 DEGREES. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 INTO MONDAY, THEN RISE A
FEW MORE DEGREES FOR MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK TO AROUND 100 TO 103.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15KT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY TO MID
MORNING REACHING 20 TO 35KT ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  70  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 101  68 101  70 /  10  20  10  10
EHA 100  68  98  66 /  10  20  20  20
LBL 100  68 101  68 /  10  20  10  10
HYS 100  72  99  71 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON