Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 300938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE UNDER THE TAIL END OF A SHORT WAVE ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY DRY OUT AFTERWARDS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DRYING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT
DECREASE TOO MUCH TODAY WITH STILL HAVING RELATIVELY HIGH THETA-E
AIR OVER THE REGION. ANY AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE RELEGATED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE BUT LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WOULD LIKELY SQUASH MOST OR ALL DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL
EDGE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
GRADUAL FLATTENING. AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST EAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT
EXPECTING ONLY MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
LATE WEEK. UPPER FLOW MAY BACK LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH NEXT VERSION OF WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING THOUGH SOLUTIONS
DISAGREE ON AMPLITUDE. SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL TROPICAL FLOW OFF
PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND THOUGH WILL NEED MORE
CONFIDENCE TO RAMP THUNDER CHANCES BEYOND SLIGHT CHANCE. THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT SURFACE CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ALMOST ANY PERIOD WE
ONLY SEE SIGNS OF MARGINAL FORCING AND ORGANIZATION PERHAPS MONDAY
NIGHT DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST...AND THEN AGAIN BY AROUND FRIDAY
ALSO VIA WESTERN ROUTE. SLIGHT CHANCES THEREFORE CONTINUE FOR
THESE PERIODS ONLY AS WELL AS NEXT WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  53  79  56 /  30  10   0  10
TULIA         70  53  78  57 /  30   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     70  53  77  58 /  30   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  55  78  58 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  55  78  59 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  56  79  58 /  40  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    74  56  79  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     75  56  79  60 /  30   0   0   0
SPUR          74  56  79  59 /  30  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  59  79  61 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05



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