141
FXUS64 KOUN 151709
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Rain chances continue this afternoon and evening, highest in
   southeastern Oklahoma.

 - Rain chances return to northern and central Oklahoma Wednesday
   night and Thursday as a weak front approaches.

 - Hot and humid towards end of the week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Trough axis that has been persistently over the area since late last
week continues to be stretched from Missouri southwest across
Oklahoma southward into southwest Texas today. There is a MCV
located over southwest Texas and it will move gradually northward
today, but should remain to our south. Otherwise, abundant moisture
remains in place and with daytime heating and proximity of the
trough, expect to see isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Most of the activity is expected to
remain along and south and east of the I-44 corridor.

GFS remains more aggressive than most models with maintaining shower
and storm activity overnight. It appears to be having some
convective feedback issues, but will look at keeping some low pops
for southern Oklahoma overnight tonight with trough still present
and some other models hinting at possible precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Trough weakens Wednesday, but there still appears to be a residual
low, likely associated with Tuesday`s MCV over Texas, that will be
in the area. This again may aid in the possibility of an isolated
shower or two Wednesday afternoon, but by this time confidence is
not high enough to introduce precip chances outside of what NBM
initializes. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move through the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. Associated front will push
south through Kansas on Wednesday with pre-frontal 850MB thermal
ridge in place. This will likely result in surface temperatures
climbing above the century mark across portions of northern Oklahoma
Wednesday afternoon.

Surface cold front will push south entering northwest Oklahoma
Wednesday night, bringing rain chances back to that part of the
state. This should also cool temperatures 10-15 degrees across the
north for Thursday.

Models differ on how far south they bring main synoptic front, but
either the front or the possibility of precip-induced outflow
boundaries may bring rain chances as far south as I-40 Thursday.
Front then looks to wash out or retreat back northward Thursday
night with some rain chances lingering across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Models show the upper high trying to begin to build into the region
towards the end of the week with high pressure influencing much
of the area over the weekend into early next week. This will bring
a drier forecast to much of the area.

Temperatures are also expected to gradually warm with highs expected
to become more consistent in the mid/upper 90s to low 100s over the
weekend into next week. Unfortunately, we won`t be getting rid of
the humidity quickly. With the hot and humid conditions, triple
digit heat index values will become increasingly likely across at
least portions of the fa. Heat advisories could be needed for
multiple days later this week into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Cumulus are now building in, but conditions are expected to remain
VFR. Isolated convective showers or thunderstorms will present
cumulonimbus clouds and brief downpours, but the chance of any one
aerodrome being hit is low enough that there was no mention within
TAFs. VFR conditions will continue tomorrow with a southerly
breeze.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  93  73  94 /   0  10  20  10
Hobart OK         73  97  72  98 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  96  74  98 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           71  97  69  89 /   0   0  30  30
Ponca City OK     74  95  73  91 /   0   0  20  40
Durant OK         75  95  74  97 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04