Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 282311
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONTS TO SPIN OVER ERN CO.
THIS WILL CONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ACRS NEB/IA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. WEAK SFC LO OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EWD ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO ERN
NEB BY FRI. ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS REMAINS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDCS THAT INSTABILITY IS
INCREASING WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDC THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING AS 700-300 MB DPVA INCREASES ACRS THE CWA. THIS
ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THAT WE SAW THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS BUT
STILL HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED IN THE FAR SOUTH
AND ALSO CLOSER TO THE LOW IN THE NORTH. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS WE SEE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
CONTD FORCING AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY ON FRI AND
WITH SOME SFC HEATING IN THE MRNG WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND ISO TSRA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
NRN AND ERN 2/3 OF THE FA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND NEAR THE
SFC BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK EWD BY FRI NIGHT WITH RAIN CHCS ENDING FROM WEST TO E BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUIET WEATHER ON SAT
AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A
STRONGER MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS NEB
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT WE COULD SEE A FAVORABLE SET-
UP FOR SVR WX IN THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SUN NIGHT BUT ONCE THE CDFNT
PASSES THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND
IMPACT ON TAF SITES IS THE MAIN PROBLEM. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AT KLNK 07-11Z AND KOMA 08-12Z. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS BECOME MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK. SHOULD
BE BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT KOMA 16-22Z TOMORROW.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



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