Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 240814
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM...FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN
SECONDARY CONCERNS.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS SPILLING SE TOWARD/ACROSS ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION. ALTHOUGH
IT HAD THINNED AS IT MOVED OVER THE FA THROUGH 07Z...THICKNESS OF
IT UPSTREAM INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
IMPACTING HIGHS A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK MIXING EXPECTED
TODAY AND MAINLY NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD REMAIN THICKEST.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG ALSO REMAINS A THREAT EARLY MOST AREAS...MORE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED OVER WRN IA WHERE IT HAD MOVED
INTO SW IA AFT 06Z. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 05Z HRRR...AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE RAP. HOWEVER...THE LOWER LEVEL RH WAS FORECAST TO
SHIFT/ERODE EWD THROUGH THIS MORNING PER THOSE MODELS...PROBABLY
LIMITING ANY IMPACT TO MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FAR SW IA THIS MORNING AND ADJUST ACCORDING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER OR NOT IT SPREADS OR IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY. THE
PESSIMISTIC 00Z NAM...REGARDING ITS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING MUCH OF THE FA...WAS GENERALLY
DISREGARDED..ALTHOUGH IT WAS NOTED THAT STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING W
INTO SERN NEBR AT 08Z. BECAUSE OF WEAK MIXING AND THICKER CIRRUS
THREAT...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT CNTRL/NRN ZONES.

WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKLY INTO ERN NEBR/WRN IA REGION TONIGHT AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED LESS CI AND MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG GIVEN ERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS...AND LOWS LIKELY TO START
OUT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR...MAX
TEMPS POSSIBLY NOT THAT MUCH COOLER DUE TO PROBABLY NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLER START AND ABSENT STRONG MIXING.

00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DID NOT MENTION FOG YET...DID INCREASE
SKY COVER SUNDAY MORNING CNTRL/NRN ZONES WHERE IT COULD LINGER THE
LONGEST. AIRMASS RECOVERS ANY COOLING THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE
OBSERVED SATURDAY. HOWEVER....BESIDES THE INCREASED LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL
...GFS INDICATED HIGHER CLOUDS RETURNING AS WELL AND MIXING DUE
TO WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BE LIMITED TO FAR SRN ZONES. THUS WITH THE CLOUD
AND POSSIBLY WEAK MIXING POTENTIAL NRN ZONES...KEPT MAX TEMPS IN
LOWER 70S THERE WITH OTHER READINGS CLOSE TO THOSE EXPECTED TO
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED IN FORECAST MONDAY NRN AREAS
AND ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...PARTIALLY TO RETAIN FORECAST
CONTINUITY...AS TROUGH CROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF PER 00Z
GFS/ECMWF WAS LIMITED MONDAY AND MOSTLY ABSENT MONDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED MONDAY AFTN BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE A TOUCH FASTER INTO SERN ZONES SO HIGHS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER MOST AREAS THAN PRIOR FORECAST.

WITH 00Z GFS/ECMWF NOW DRY WITH LTL/NO FORCING...ANY PRECIP
MENTION FOR TUESDAY WAS DROPPED...AND A CONTINUED COOL-DOWN SHOULD
PERSIST.

FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING AREA WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL/PREV FORECAST BLEND ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT
WARM UP OVER TUESDAY...TRENDS WOULD INDICATE NUDGING UPWARD MORE
IF WARM ADVCTN CLOUDS APPEAR THEY WILL BE LIMITED.

EARLIER GFS LEAD THE CHARGE FOR A LATE WEEK COOL-DOWN AS TROUGH
SHARPENED TO OUR EAST. ECMWF FOLLOWED SUIT YDA AND CONTINUED THE
TREND WITH 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...GFS HAS NOW FLIPPED TO A WARMER
PATTERN THU/FRI. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A BLEND OF
THE TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO FORM OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. CIGS BELOW FL010 AND VSBYS NEAR 3SM
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AT ALL SITES. IF THOSE CIGS/VSBYS
DO FORM...THEY SHOULD LIFT/IMPROVE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE MAINLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
 091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN



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