Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 251955
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

PCPN CHANCES AND THE TIMING OF TSTMS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD.

THE MAIN FEATURES FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS AT 12Z INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB A 95 KNOT JET MAX WAS PUNCHING TO E/NE ACROSS
SWRN CANADA. 500 MB PATTERN SHOWED A HIGH CENTERED OVER CO AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THAT HIGH UP INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NW. AT 700 MB...A THERMAL
RIDGE WAS OVER THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED A SURGE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW MOVING NWD FROM
NM...AZ AND SRN CA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AND EVENTUALLY
ROTATE AROUND THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
W/NW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME PLAN ON NOT
MENTIONING ANY PCPN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AXIS STAYS TO OUR WEST
THROUGH 00Z THU. INCREASED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS A BIT FOR ALL
AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY
STAYS TO OUR WEST. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN THURSDAY...AS WE MAY
HAVE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY...THEN AGAIN IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES LATE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO JUST
HOW UNSTABLE IT WILL BE. IF NAM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT...THERE MAY
BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. I SUSPECT THAT THE NAM IS SHOWING
TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND THUS THAT IS THE REASON FOR IT SHOWING
HIGHER CAPE THAN THE GFS. WILL WAIT A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS AND
SEE WHAT THINGS LOOK LIKE TOMORROW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES
FROM 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS. DYNAMICS LINGER
INTO FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

PATTERN AT 500 MB IN THE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL THEN START
TO SLIDE SEWD AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS FROM A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW.

DID NOT LINGER ANY PCPN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...THIS MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT. KEPT RAIN
CHANCES AT 14 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO
MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.