Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 162319
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INTO THE MID
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF PCPN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE DAKOTAS
WITH 12 HR HEIGHT FALLS OF ABOUT 150 METERS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INITIALIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WAS OVER
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

850 MB CHART FROM 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HELPED
PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 70S...BUT COOLING WAS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MODEST LOW LEVEL GRADIENT TONIGHT MAY
HELP KEEP WINDS UP...SO RAISED THEM A BIT COMPARED TO LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR
NORTH MAY MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING (MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION
TO FREMONT AND RED OAK).

OTHERWISE...WE LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO TODAY) FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S (AT OR
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE). SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST. GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND 70 WESTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING BUT MAY TURN
WET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

LATEST MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A 500 MB RIDGE FROM
WYOMING UP INTO ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE
NEAR THE ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER REGION AND A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ALASKA DOWN TO NEAR 30 N 135 W. SOME
ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THAT TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE OUT NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THAT TIME (GFS IS WET
FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE PCPN MAINLY TO OUR WEST)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN SUGGESTS LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR NOW. HIGHS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 60S
TO LOWER 790S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S OR UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

A REINFORCING FRONT IN SD WILL PUSH ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT AND BRING AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS WHICH WERE DECREASING
AT INITIAL ISSUANCE. STRATOCUMULUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT INTO NERN NEBR LATER THIS EVENING AND COULD BRING
CIGS TO KOFK...BUT INITIALLY THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FL030.
HOWEVER...EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS KOFK AND KOMA AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLNK.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CIGS AT KOMA AND KOFK COULD LINGER AT
LEAST INTO MID AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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