Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161118
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
618 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Temperatures and winds will be the main forecast concerns through
the short term. Will keep the previously issued frost advisory
going this morning.

Mid level flow should gradually transition from northwest to west
into mid week, with main energy tracking east along the border of
the US and Canada. Surface pressure gradient will tighten today
as high pressure moves east, and southerly winds will increase.
Increasing boundary layer temperatures and rising thickness values
suggest that NAM and GFS MOS are on track with highs today in the
local area ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s. A weak front is
expected to slide now into our northern zones late tonight but
then wash out, as southerly flow increases again by Tuesday
evening into Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday should reach the lower
and mid 70s. A front should make a little more progress southward
into the area Wednesday, but due to better mixing we expect highs
mostly in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures that started earlier
in the week should continue until Friday night. Highs should be
mostly lower and mid 70s Thursday, then mid to upper 70s Friday.

The 00Z GFS was the most aggressive of available models with pcpn
development Friday evening (current and previous run of the ECMWF
indicated dry weather). The GFS showed a low level jet increasing
to around 50 knots and precipitable water (PW) increase into the
1.00 to 1.25 inch range Friday night. Will increase some low end
POPs for parts of the forecast area.

Models are actually in very good agreement that a nearly full
latitude trough will progress east through the nations mid section
from Saturday through Saturday night. Several things point to
potentially heavy rain, including the GFS showing PW increasing
to around 1.50 (about 230 percent of normal) boundary layer CAPE
values of 800-1500 J/kg and fairly deep upward vertical motion.
Have some POPs into the likely category (60-70 percent) Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening. Model timing is also good that
the precipitation should end by daybreak Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with increasing
southwest surface winds throughout the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ044-045-
     051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern


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