Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 262000
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AFTER EVENING CONVECTION EXITS THE FORECAST AREA MAIN WEATHER
FOCUS IN SHORT TERM IS TEMPERATURES AS PATTERN TURNS COOLER.

UPPER LOW OVER SRN CANADA WAS BEGINNING TO DROP SE OVER SRN
MANITOBA WITH STRONG UPPER JET SEGMENT AIDING IN ALLOWING SMALL
MCS TO DROP INTO NRN ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
COMPLEX WAS ATTEMPTING TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...TWO INDIVIDUAL
CELLS STILL WERE MAINTAINING SOME STRUCTURE/CORES ALOFT AS OF
1930Z...BUT SHOWED SOME LAST MINUTE SHRINKAGE AS OF 20Z.  QUESTION
BECOMES COVERAGE AT AND AFT 00Z. ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE LOW END CHC POPS SERN ZONES...VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS QPF...RAP/HRRR...HAD LITTLE OR NONE BY 01Z AND THEN OVER
FAR SERN COUNTIES. THUS...WOULD EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO BE OVER
WITH ACROSS OUR FA BY 03Z OR SOONER.

ALTHOUGH INITIALLY MOIST AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
UP SOME TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SERN ZONES...DID LOWER THEM A BIT
W/NW AS SOME UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DWPTS TRY TO SPREAD SE. AFTER
TONIGHT DRIER AIR SPREADING OVER THE FA WILL BRING COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS THROUGH SHORT TERM AND PROBABLY THROUGH EXTENDED WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S COMMON. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS
NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY WITH H85 TEMPS COOLING A LITTLE
MONDAY PROVIDING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS WITH TUESDAY SIMILAR.

LEFT SHORT TERM DRY AFTER THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A
LITTLE IN NW UPPER FLOW AND GFS/ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT QPF OVER ERN
ZONES MONDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEPT A SMALL CAP
AROUND 800-700 MB AND NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PERSIST IN THE EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FOR TIMING AND EVEN
LOCATION. ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR WRN ZONES MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
AT RISK SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSER TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND ERN SIDE UP UPPER RIDGE. ATTEMPTED TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY
IN MENTIONING MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT...KEPT THE NEW DAYS 6 AND 7...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY FOR
NOW. LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...AGAIN MOSTLY 80-85 FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NERN NEBRASKA OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN AS IT TRACKS SE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE NORFOLK AREA...BUT WILL BE WORKING INTO A
SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SE OF THERE...AND COULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OMAHA. FOR NOW INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IT AT
OMAHA...AND OF COURSE ALSO OFK...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF LINCOLN
FOR THE TIME BEING AS IT COULD REFOCUS MORE ENE OF THAT SITE.
OTHERWISE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL PRECEDE CONVECTION AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NNW ON SUNDAY...BUT A SEPARATE
GROUP WAS NOT INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND DUE TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE SHORTER TERM.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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