Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 111200
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
600 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Windy Today...

An intense vorticity maximum over ND as of 07z will translate
through the mid-MO Valley today and into the mid-MS/lower-OH
Valleys by this evening. On it`s immediate heels, mid to upper-
level jet streaks and a related secondary vorticity lobe will
move from the western Dakotas into the central Plains. In the low
levels, the former upper-air disturbance mentioned above will be
linked to a cold front which will push through the area this
morning with strong northwest winds and falling temperatures
expected by afternoon. Late morning/early afternoon highs ranging
from around 40 north to upper 40s south can be expected before the
cold advection begins to overwhelm diurnal heating. Clouds will
be on the increase as the stronger forcing for ascent overspreads
the region with some light rain or sprinkles possible from late
this morning into afternoon.

Tonight, a surface high will build south through the High Plains
with winds rapidly diminishing. Lingering cloudiness should limit
the potential for strong radiational cooling with lows in the
upper teens to mid 20s.

Tuesday, pronounced low-level warm advection could be offset to
some extent by cloudiness arising from that forcing mechanism with
highs ranging from the mid to upper 40s west to upper 30s to lower
40s east.

Wednesday, another short-wave trough is forecast to track
southeast through the region along with an associated cold front.
Outside of some increase in mid-level clouds, model soundings
indicate that the environment will remain relatively dry and the
potential for measurable precipitation appears low. Winds will
become strong again from the northwest behind the front with highs
ranging from the mid 40s north to mid 50s south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Latest medium-range guidance indicates that another short-wave
trough will track south through the mid-MO Valley on Thursday in
tandem with a surface cold front. Similar to previous systems,
moisture will remain limited, so precipitation potential currently
appears low. Temperatures will be cooler than previous days with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s forecast.

By Friday into the weekend, the persistent ridge over western
North America will temporarily dampen and retrograde west as a
strong polar jet develops onto the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coasts. The ridge-breakdown-process will be initiated by
a short-wave trough which is forecast to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest on Friday prior to subsequently translating
into the Great Plains Saturday and/or Sunday. The models handle
this system differently (namely if and how it phases with a
higher-latitude disturbance), leading to uncertainty in timing
and impacts on our weather. For now, we will maintain a
predominantly dry forecast with continued above-normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

LLWS will continue through 13 or 14Z with 40 to 50 kt winds in the
1000-2000 ft layer. After 14Z sfc winds will increase and become
strong with gusts 35-40 kts through the afternoon. There is a
fairly good chance for bkn cigs in the 2000-3000 ft range to
build over OFK and OMA (with smaller chance at LNK) after 18Z with
chance for scattered showers at all sites through the afternoon as
well.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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