Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 091729
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Broad west/northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region with a
strong shortwave trough dropping southeast across the Canadian/North
Dakota border this morning. At the surface, high pressure continues
to move east across the Mississippi valley region while low
pressure drifts east across the northern Plains ahead of the
Canadian shortwave. Ahead of the trough, a surface cold front was
moving southeast across the western Dakotas and this feature is
forecast to move into northeastern Nebraska by late this
afternoon. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
our west in a warm air advection regime but do continue to
dissipate as they approach drier air. Latest runs of the CAM`s
show this elevated warm air advection pcpn continuing to slowly
move east through the CWA through much of the day but may see only
an increase in clouds with little in the way of measurable
rainfall. Looks like a better chance of thunderstorms will
approach the northwestern CWA by 2-4pm along the surface front. A
few strong storms cannot be ruled out across northeast Nebraska
this afternoon given forecast instability but storms should weaken
as we lose heating later in the day.

High pressure will build in behind this system and linger around
through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Warm advection redevelops over western Nebraska again Friday night
in advance of another upper wave over the Northern Plains. Rain
chances increase across the area by late Friday night and a few
hit and miss showers are possible into Sunday across our western
counties as these features linger over the region and slowly
spread east. High pressure then builds over the upper Mississippi
Valley keeping the area dry for the most part Sunday with another
hint of pcpn early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Showers are moving near the KLNK/KOMA sites and should clear in
the next 1-2 hours. Additional showers/isolated storms should
develop again this afternoon and could affect KOFK. For now, have
included VCSH wording, but this can be refined if showers/storms
approach. Showers also could move close to KOMA or even KLNK later
this evening. South to southwest winds around 10-15kt this
afternoon will relax this evening and tonight to under 10kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mayes



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