Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 141209
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
709 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Early-morning water vapor imagery and 00z upper-air data
indicate a shortwave trough moving through the upper Great Lakes
with upstream ridging from the Interior West to the lee of the
Canadian Rockies. In the low levels, mesoanalysis depicted a
synoptic front from the southern High Plains to OH Valley with a
surface high situated over northern MN. Residual low-level
moisture to the north of the boundary, coupled with light winds
and clear skies will lead to an areal increase in patchy fog
through sunrise, mainly across the southern half of the forecast
area.

The mid-level ridge axis will continue to amplify into central
Canada through Saturday, while in the low levels the
aforementioned surface high builds southeast into the OH Valley.
On Saturday night into Sunday, a potent shortwave trough will
amplify over the Great Lakes, supporting the southward advance of
a weak cool front into the area which will subsequently
dissipate. The foregoing large-scale pattern will render
precipitation chances negligible through the weekend with
gradually warming daytime temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

A more substantial shortwave trough will track across the western
half of Canada early next week, encouraging the equatorward push
of cool front which is forecast to stall near or just north of the
forecast area on Tuesday. In addition to the proximity of the
surface front, model guidance hints at a weak midlevel impulse
pivoting from the central High Plains into the mid MO Valley
during that time period, supporting increasing chances for
thunderstorms.

In the wake of the Canadian impulse mentioned above, midlevel
heights will gradually build over the northern High Plains during
the latter half of the upcoming week. And while specific details
vary amongst 00z medium-range guidance, it appears that the
synoptic front --albeit weakly defined-- will remain in the
vicinity. As a result, off-and-on chances of thunderstorms will
continue with above-normal daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

VFR ceilings and visibilities are forecast through the period.
Some IFR conditions with Visibilities 1/4 mile are forecast at
KLNK and should improve between 13 and 14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Smith



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