Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 110952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
352 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Friday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Arctic air over the Northern Plains has made it to the
Nebraska/South Dakota border early this morning and will continue
to surge south today. Gusty northwest winds behind the front
should allow wind chills to drop into the negative single digits
in our north to the single digits in our south. A weak upper level wave
will drift east along the NE/SD border late today where a narrow
area of enhanced lift will reside. Deep cold air in addition to
this area of lift should be favorable for snowfall production
from late this afternoon into Thursday morning in our north. Due
to limited moisture, generally less than an inch of total
accumulation is expected with the highest amounts near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border.

Arctic high pressure settles over the region Thursday into Friday
providing below normal temperatures for this time of year. A
quick moving shortwave will move east across South Dakota on
Friday providing a brief period of enhanced lift for portions of
northeast Nebraska and west central Iowa. We currently have
around an inch of total snow accumulation for Friday in our north
and northeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Main focus for the long term will be centered around the closed
upper low moving northeast out of the southwestern U.S/northern
Mexico. There still remains uncertainty in the track of the large
scale features which in turn makes a lower confidence level in the
finer scale details. This being said, what we do know is that a
large swath of QPF is slated to move into our CWA late Sunday into
Monday with the heavier swath likely situated along our southern
counties. We also know that a warm wedge aloft is anticipated
which would produce areas of freezing rain where surface
temperatures drop below freezing. Through much of the event,
surface temperatures will be borderline around freezing making
the precipitation type forecast quite difficult. The latest models
runs indicate the greatest chances for freezing rain would be
generally along and south of I-80, but this will likely change
many more times before the event, which is still 5 days away.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

VFR conditions will prevail thru the fcst pd.




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