Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 252359
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

TONIGHT

A SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS POINT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AFTERNOON
PWATS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES...WITH
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING VALUES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING WAS ALSO IN EXCESS OF 11000 FT THIS MORNING AND STORMS
ENTERING THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE BEGINNING TO TRAIN ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
APPEARED TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE EXTENT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...IN FAR
SE NEBRASKA WHERE LOCALLY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NE FROM 7PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER AND INTO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT OUT OF THE EAST BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHEAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WE SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING...THUS THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING
THUNDERSHOWERS HERE OR THERE...BUT THOSE END THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA COULD BRING
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TO PARTS OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS BY SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE. MODELS DO HINT AT A VERY
WEAK AND SUBTLE WAVE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUT OF SYNC ON
THE TIMING. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THAT
TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

A COUPLE OF AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FOCUS ON FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING/S FORECAST. THERE IS A FRONT IN KANSAS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED SOUTH OF KLNK. H85 WARM
AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE BORDER THIS EVENING SHOULD ENHANCE TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THE SECOND AREA IS
WITH H7 WARM AIR ADVECTION/SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
FORCING SHOULD ASSIST IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EASTWARD. THE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER NEAR THE
BORDER THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WITH THE SHORTWAVE WITH
MENTION SHOWERS...BUT LEAVE TSRA OUT DUE TO THEIR UNCERTAINTY LACK
OF FORECAST INSTABILITY. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE
RAP IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW
MENTIONED MVFR VSBYS WITH THE RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LATEST RAP13 IS SUGGESTING PRECIP
EFFICIENCY WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTH...PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND K INDICES OVER 40. THE BRUNT
OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO EXTEND ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT SHOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE HRRR/RAP13 ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE LOWER TIER COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5
INCHES ARE PROBABLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2
INCHES THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OPTED TO REMOVE THE NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH FROM LANCASTER COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH
OTOE...FREMONT AND PAGE COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES HAVE MISSED THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
SETTING UP SOUTH OF THESE COUNTIES TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NEZ078-088>093.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
HYDROLOGY...KG/DEE


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