Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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018
FXUS63 KOAX 011118
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
518 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

No active weather progged heading into this weekend.

Good agreement amongst the medium range models a Pac NW shortwave
trof moving into the Central Plains will induce the next round of
pcpn Saturday night. Pcpn initiation is progged to occur generally
over wrn KS Saturday aftn then expand newd toward the CWA.
However..expansion of activity though will be curbed as it
approaches the I-80 corridor where condensation deficit become
increasing unfavorable to allow for saturation to occur. Thus will
gear POPs to reflect this. As for pcpn type...wet bulb temps suggest
RA/SN mix during the evening hours...then SN aft midnight
with no significant accumulations expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

ECM/GFS/CMC solutions in one degree or another advertise the
potential for a potent winter storm system affecting the Central
Plains next Tues/Wed/Thurs. Because of model consistency the last
couple runs indicating the possibly of this event...confidence at
this point is somewhat higher. However...there it is still too
much uncertainty with respect to timing/SN amounts/placement to
try and pin down details.

As for temps...the bottom falls out heading into next week as both
the ECMMOS/MEX/EKDMOS all prog lows in the single digits come
Thursday morning at KOMA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

As of 11z, surface observations indicated the western edge of MVFR
ceilings stretched from KONL to KLNK to KFNB. This cloud edge has
oscillated longitudinally overnight, but a concerted eastward
advance is anticipated today into this evening. Expect prevailing
VFR conditions at KLNK by about 18z, and closer to 00z at KOMA and
KOFK. Winds will be lighter than previous days; at around 10 kt
from the northwest.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead



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