Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141747
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1047 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Currently...quiet conditions exist across southern Colorado early
this morning. A few high clouds are moving across the area.
Westerly winds have kept temperatures warm along the lee slopes of
the Eastern Mountains with mid 40s, while areas across the far
Eastern Plains have dropped into the lower 30s.

Today and tonight...flat high pressure aloft will shift east into
the Central Plains, while a shortwave trough passes to the north.
Westerly flow should allow for another warm day across the region
with 70s expected for highs across the Plains.  Expect increasing
mid and high cloud cover as the upper disturbance passes to the
north.  Models in agreement with a cold front dropping south across
the Plains this evening.  This will bring a northerly wind shift and
cooler air to spread across the region by Wednesday morning.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main concern this forecast period will be the sensible weather on
Thursday and Friday as a quick but stout short wave moves over the
region. This system has the potential to bring some fire weather
concerns to the area Thursday and possibly Friday as winds and RH
values will be nearing critical values. In addition, snowfall
amounts will possibly reach hilite criteria from late Thursday into
early Friday over the central mountains. Overall, both the GFS and
EC are in rather good agreement with each other  with the above
scenario, so confidence is rather high that the above solution will
evolve.

Wednesday...

Dry weather is anticipated across the entire cwa. Temps will be
seasonable on the plains while it will be about 10F above normal
across the higher terrain.

Thursday and Friday...

Pacific weather system approaches the region. This will cause sfc
winds to increase across the area during the afternoon and humidity
values are expected to decrease. This will cause fire weather
conditions to approach critical values. Quite a bit of the plains
are now favorable for rapid fire growth, and fire weather hilites
may be needed on this day across parts of the district.

Precip will be on the increase across the contdvd by afternoon, and
locally heavy snow will be possible by evening, especially across
the central mountains. Several inches of snow will be possible
Thursday night across the central mountains with lesser amounts
expected across the sw mtns. The S mtns should remain dry Thursday
night.

Winds across the higher terrain will be rather strong Thursday and
Thursday night. Over the plains, it will be quite mild Thursday
night.

By Friday, a pacific front will cross the region and winds will
gradually go from west to northwest as the day progresses. Although
temps Friday will be cooler than Thursday, RH values will be less
and we may see continued fire weather concerns across the district,
especially during the first half of the day Friday. By later Friday,
cooler air should be advecting into the region.

Snow will continue across teh central mountains through the day
Friday, decreasing during the evening. It is possible that some
light precip will move onto the plains, especially N of US50 late
Friday afternoon and into the evening. Snow showers will be possible
across most of the higher terrain Friday.

Saturday into early next week...

Saturday will be cool across the region, and this day may be the
coolest day of the extended period. Expect highs mainly in the 50s
across the valleys and plains.

Temps will be on the rebound Sunday into early next week. We may see
another weather system affect the region by late Tuesday into
Wednesday. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Gusty winds expected at the terminals this afternoon as waves of
high cloudiness move across the area. Southwest winds around 15
kts will be possible at both KCOS and KPUB...with gusts to around
25 kts at KALS. A cold front will drop south of the Palmer
Divide...impacting KCOS around 23z...and KPUB around 01-02z. Winds
will shift out of the north at around 10-15 kts behind the front
before decreasing towards morning. Cigs will stay VFR through the
period.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



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