Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170947
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 AM MDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Main short term meteorological challenges continue to include
pops/qpf as well as temperatures.  CWFA currently experiencing
variable cloudiness in combination with basically above seasonal
mid-August early morning temperatures.

Latest PV analysis, real-time data, computer simulations and
forecast model soundings suggest that upper ridging becomes
centered over Alabama by 12Z Thursday while upper trough stretches
from Idaho into central California by 12Z Thursday.

The combination of adequate atmospheric moisture and upper level
energy will allow primarily isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm activity, once again favoring the
western 2/3rds of the forecast district.

Similar to yesterday, some of the stronger storms will be capable
of producing periods of locally heavy rainfall/localized flash
flooding potential, gusty winds, hazardous lightning and small
hail at times, which WFO Pueblo will again monitor closely and
issues highlights as needed.

Generally low grade gradient winds and near to above seasonal
average maximum and minimum temperatures should again be noted over
the majority of the forecast district during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2016

On Thu a slow moving upr disturbance wl be ovr the area.  Showers
and tstms wl develop ovr the mtns for the afternoon hours and then
spread ovr the ern plains in the evening. High temps on Thu are
forecast to be around average.

Then in the early morning hours of Fri, a cold front wl move
southward thru the ern CO plains.  This wl result in slightly cooler
temps for Fri.  Fri afternoon most of the pcpn is expected to be
focused ovr the hyr trrn, the srn border area and the Palmer Dvd. In
the evening some storms wl also move ovr the sern plains.  Fri
night/early Sat, a new upr trof wl be dropping south from MT and WY,
into CO and the central plains states.  This wl bring another
northerly surge and is expected to bring a good chance for pcpn to
ern CO Fri night and into Sat.  Temps on Sat are expected to be much
cooler ovr the sern plains and should be 10-15 degrees below
average.   Temps ovr the hyr peaks wl be on the cool side and some
light snow accumulations are possible.

Cool weather wl continue on Sun with generally isold to sct pcpn
chances ovr the mtns and isold chances ovr the lower elevations.
Weak westerly flow aloft is expected on Mon along with drier
conditions.  There wl probably be some isold showers/tstms ovr and
nr the mtns Mon afternoon and evening, and high temps wl be several
degrees warmer. On Tue a weak upr trof is forecast to move acrs NM.
Some isold to sct pcpn is expected ovr and nr the hyr trrn, and
temps should be around average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Basically VFR conditions are expected at the KALS...KCOS and KPUB
taf sites during the next 24 hours...although isolated primarily
afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
briefly generating MVFR/IFR conditions at times due to the potential
of moderate to possibly heavy rain/lower cigs/visibilities at times
at the terminals.
&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77



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