Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 201118 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
618 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
Some SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the NRN terminals as an
outflow boundary and cold front approach those sites. Further
south...the potential for SHRA/TSRA will be more spotty. Chances
for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the forecast...becoming more numerous
on Fri beyond this TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Quiet conditions are ongoing across the state this morning. Regional
radar imagery shows a cluster of SHRA/TSRA over SE KS...which was
moving generally east into SW MO. Extending SW from this cluster is
a fairly pronounced outflow dropping SE into NE OK. This
outflow...and a cold front further north...will move SE into the
state this morning into the afternoon hrs. This will become the
focus for SHRA/TSRA to develop through this afternoon.
This front will slow as it approaches the CWA...likely stalling this
evening across NRN AR. This region of the state will see the best
potential for SHRA/TSRA through tonight. Lesser chances for precip
will be seen further south...with more isolated activity expected.
The threat for seeing SVR WX will be limited as well...though an
isolated strong to severe storm may be seen. Some locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible.
The stalled front will get a new push S/SW on Fri...with more
numerous SHRA/TSRA becoming possible further south for the NRN
half/two thirds of the CWA. Some strong to SVR storms may also be
seen...with the best potential for seeing SVR WX across the WRN
sections of the state. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats with the strongest storms. Further NE...the threat
for SVR WX will be limited to some large hail given the convection
being elevated in nature north of the front...and with the SVR WX
threat more limited overall the further E/NE.
The potential for heavy rainfall will be increasing by later on
Fri...with forecat QPF values approaching 3 inches from now through
Fri night across the NRN/NWRN counties. Will hold off on any Flood
Watch headlines at this time given these current forecast QPF
values...and with 6 hr FFG above 3 inches for this portion of the
state. Even so...some isolated flash flooding may be seen.
Temps on Fri will also range significantly across the CWA with the
cold front dropping further south. Temps north of the front will
remain in the 50s to low 60s due to NRLY flow and rainfall/cloud
cover. South of the front...expect highs in the 70s and 80s.
By the end of short term period...the front will begin pushing SE
through the state...with best POPs along this front. This front will
then push SE of the state by later on Sat in the long term period.
LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
Sfc low pressure is fcst to be centered ovr AR early Sat. Ongoing
convection wl be noted along and ahead of an assocd CDFNT, mainly
over the SE half of the state. The storm system wl cont working EWD
and is expected to be E of the state by Sat aftn. Rain chcs wl
quickly diminish behind the system as drier air moves in on breezy
Models are still showing some wrap around moisture dropping SWD into
AR late Sat and Sat ngt, behind the departing upper lvl low. Opted
to leave a small chc of lingering rain in for the NERN part of the
FA early Sat night, as the upper lvl support lifts out of the area.
High pressure wl settle into the Mid-South for the remainder of the
weekend and into early next week. Cooler and drier conds wl be noted
Sun and Mon, with moderating temps thereafter as the high shifts EWD
and south winds return. A new CDFNT wl approach the FA fm the NW on
Wed, with a slight chc of SHRA/TSRA for the NW part of the area.