Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271528
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       82  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        81  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         84  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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