Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231748
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
LATE THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE ENDING. CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR AREAS WILL BECOME
VFR THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY...IMPROVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD BE MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW
AT TIMES IN THOSE AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

STILL HAVE SOME ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WITH RAIN SHOWING UP AT PINE BLUFF...MONTICELLO...AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE AREAS. THIS SHOULD PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY BUT WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS MENA AND RUSSELLVILLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP. ALREADY HAVE SOME LIGHT
RETURNS DEVELOPING ON RADAR IN THOSE AREAS SO THINK FORECAST IS IN
DECENT SHAPE IN THAT REGARD. TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
FREEZING BUT DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. FURTHERMORE MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO THE FREEZING LEVEL
AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS LOWERING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREAS LIKE ARKADELPHIA...PINE BLUFF...AND STUTTGART.
IT MAY END UP BEING LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING...CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT OR SO...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW MIXING
DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS SO HAVE JUST BROAD-BRUSHED THE FORECAST
IN THAT RESPECT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE SEEN BUT IN
GENERAL ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED WHERE SNOW FALLS.

PRECIP WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...USHERING IN DRY CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT
THE SHORT TERM. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL BE SEEN HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. BY
SUNDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND
MOSTLY LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IS
EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  30  53  36 /  30  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         43  31  56  35 /  50  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       43  29  52  36 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  30  55  36 /  40  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  30  55  36 /  50  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     41  32  55  36 /  60  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  29  55  35 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  30  53  36 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        40  29  53  36 /  40  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     41  31  54  35 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  29  55  34 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  29  52  34 /  50  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      42  30  53  35 /  60  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




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