Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 310551
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA AND
WEAKENING AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST TERMINALS AND EVEN THEN FOR JUST A FEW MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER FOR CONVECTION TRENDS. CURRENTLY
OVERALL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER IN SPOT SEEN
OVER AR. MAIN AREA IS IN THE SE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST MOISTURE
INFLUX AND UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME LIFT IS
OVER EASTERN AR...WHILE OTHER LIFT FROM NW AR TO MO. THIS IS WHERE
THE MOST OF THE LIGHT CONVECTION HAS BEE SEEN. SHORT RANGE TRENDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT LIGHT CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN AR...WITH EVEN LIGHTER CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. UPDATE WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND THIS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS LOWERING ALSO. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE ADDED TO FORECAST DUE TO MOISTURE LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AND END FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST...AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG SHOULD FORM OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHILE SOME LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT DETERIORATE AS READILY.

ON SUNDAY...AFTER SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 8 TO 14 MPH ON SUNDAY. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER RIDGES
ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH FROM
THE GULF AND FEED THE RAIN AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AN INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND BE NEAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE NORTH THEN WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY...
BUT WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT
COULD LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  92  73  92 /  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN AR         73  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       71  91  73  90 /  10  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  92  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  93  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      72  92  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  92  73  90 /  10  20  30  30
NEWPORT AR        72  91  73  93 /  10  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     73  92  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  92  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         72  92  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      73  92  74  94 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





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