Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 281120 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
520 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016
Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...
Widespread SHRA/TSRA will become likely across most of the
state...with impacts expected at all terminals. While VFR
conditions may be seen initially...expect conditions to
deteriorate as this convective activity moves over the state. IFR
to potentially LIFR conditions could be seen with the stronger
TSRA...as well as some low CIGS right behind the convection.
However...this activity should rapidly move east by late this
afternoon...with VFR conditions possible this evening and through
the rest of this TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 350 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
Scattered to widespread SHRA and a few rumbles of thunder have moved
NE over the SERN half of the CWA early this morning...while areas
across the west and NWRN portion of the state have seen dry
conditions. A complex of SHRA/TSRA has developed across NRN TX and
was lifting NE into ERN OK. This activity will continue to lift NE
into the WRN and NWRN sections of the CWA by just before
sunrise...with widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. Most of this activity
should remain below SVR levels...with maybe some strong winds
possible with these storms. The primary SVR WX threat will exist
further SE over the far SERN counties later in the day.
Most of the CWA will see fairly impressive dynamics moving
overhead...with some strong to SVR storms possible. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat with the strongest storms. Now...areas
across the SRN/SERN portion of AR in close proximity to the nose of
the higher moisture axis...will also be the region where the low
level SRH values are forecast to be highest. Most data suggests that
storms will have significant difficulty becoming SFC based in
AR...and thus limit any tornado threat. However...if any storm were
to become SFC based in this region of overlap between the higher
moisture and high 0-1 km SRH (forecast values of several hundred
m2/s2)...an increased tornado threat will be seen. For now
though...this scenario looks unlikely due to potential for ongoing
SHRA activity expected...which will prevent much destabilization for
SFC based parcels. Even so...given the also high 0-3 km SRH (over
500 m2/s2) in SERN AR...some rotating updrafts could be seen...with
an enhanced wind/hail threat resulting.
Another hazard possible on today will be some locally heavy rainfall.
However...given how fast the upper shortwave axis is expected to
move east...the flash flood threat should remain isolated. Even
so...overall rainfall amounts will be 1 to 2 inches...with locally
Gradient winds will remain fairly breezy...so will continue the Lake
Wind Adv as is...with just extending the WRN CWA portion a few more
All precip activity is expected to move east of the state by late
this afternoon into the evening hrs today. Dry conditions will be
seen through much of Tue...but additional SHRA and some TSRA could
be seen over the SERN counties late Tue into Tue night. Best chances
for seeing precip will be SE of the state however.
LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
Following a storm system/cold front on Monday/Tuesday, a large area
of high pressure will build over the region from the Plains. This
will provide dry but cool conditions for a few days. In fact,
at/below average temperatures are in the forecast.
As the period progresses, data continues to show a new storm system
forming over the southwest United States. As the system digs to the
south/east, low pressure should form close to the Texas Gulf Coast
on Saturday. The system is expected to track toward the Tennessee
Valley through Sunday night.
Given the scenario, there will be a lot of clouds this weekend. Have
chances for rain over the southern half of Arkansas Saturday, and
over southern/eastern sections of the state on Sunday. If there is
any precipitation in the northwest, it appears spotty/light at this
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Baxter-Boone-