Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291704 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HRS.
BY WED MORNING...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE NWRN PART
OF THE STATE...WITH SOME RA POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE NRN
SITES. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS...ANY RA SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING...OR LATER. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
TODAY WILL BE A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S...FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. A DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND MOVE TOWARDS ARKANSAS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER INTO ARKANSAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL
WILL LAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...BUT NO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENT. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH AS AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WED AND THU WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL VALUES
THANKS TO RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S ON WEDNESDAY AND FIRMLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY LEAVING FRIDAY IN THE DRY. THE OPERATIVE WORD
THERE IS SHOULD THOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
COULD BE DEALING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING SO DO HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR PLACES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF PINE BLUFF.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIOD STARTS WITH THIS SUMMERS EVER PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE AND
EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SHOW
THIS PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS
FEW MORNINGS...WILL BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

SURFACE PATTERN WILL HAVE A WAVY BOUNDARY LYING ON THE GULF COAST
WHICH REALLY DOES NOT MOVE TOO MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREDOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN FOR THE
CWA BUT IT WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE WARMING SLOWLY AND GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE IS STILL RUNNING A BIT TO WARM AS
IT IS SLANTING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND WILL UNDERCUT ONCE AGAIN BY A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  63  80  63 /   0   0  40  40
CAMDEN AR         88  65  83  65 /   0   0  30  50
HARRISON AR       81  60  75  62 /   0  10  50  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  64  79  64 /   0  10  50  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  64  80  65 /   0  10  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     85  63  84  65 /   0   0  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      85  64  78  63 /   0  10  50  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  40  40
NEWPORT AR        81  62  80  64 /   0   0  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     84  63  81  64 /   0   0  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  64  78  64 /   0  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         83  63  81  64 /   0   0  40  50
STUTTGART AR      82  63  81  65 /   0   0  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





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