Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 150536
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

Predominant VFR expected through much of the night and
into the day Friday outside areas that experience BR/FG. Light
surface winds under clear skies will allow BR/FG development
after 15/10Z, potentially yielding IFR visibilities at KADF/KPBF.
Other terminals except KLLQ and KHRO could see MVFR visibilities
as well. A return to VFR with scattered cumulus at or above 5-7
kft after 15/14Z with south to southwesterly winds increasing to
between 5 and 10 kts.

DTC

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Under high pressure, predominant VFR expected through much of the
night and into the day Friday outside areas that experience BR/FG.
Light surface winds under clear skies will allow BR/FG development
after 15/10Z, potentially yielding IFR vsbys at KADF/KPBF. Other
terminals except KLLQ and KHRO could see MVFR vsby as well. A return
to VFR with clear skies expected after 15/14Z with south to
southwesterly winds increasing to between 5 and 10 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED Issued by NWS Memphis TN)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night
For this time of year, it`s a relatively boring short term
portion of the forecast. Well, I guess not if you prefer above
average temperatures and little in the way of cloud cover or rain
chances. Anyway, in more technical terms, upper ridging will set
up and will be centered over the western Gulf of Mexico initially,
which should suppress any convection. At the surface, moisture
will continue to increase, as the flow remains southerly.

Well, that`s about as verbose as I can get today. Until next
time...

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
The long term portion of the forecast will be characterized by
warm temperatures that are at or slightly above normal and mostly
dry conditions with only slight rain chances seen at times.
Hurricane Jose will be seen off the Atlantic Coast, slowly
progressing northward.

Locally and to the south of the state, ridging aloft will be in
place for much of the period while fairly progressive flow will be
seen from the Pacific Northwest toward the Upper Plains. In this
region, a deepening trough will bring very active weather to the
northwest quarter of the CONUS.

At the surface, high pressure will be in place east of the state
providing a constant southerly flow. Could see some windy conditions
through the period, especially across the west, as the pressure
gradient increases at times. This will be due to the influence of an
area of low pressure and surface front that will be
situated just northwest of the state late this weekend
through the early part of next week. Near the very end of the
period, by mid to late next week, as the upper flow shifts to being
more zonal a cold front may attempt to make its way through the
state, bringing increased rain chances along with it.

FIRE WEATHER...
No significant fire weather issues are expected in the next seven
days. Moisture will increase through the weekend, and this will
allow minimum humidities to stay largely above 50 percent. Winds
should remain below critical thresholds.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99



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