Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 110550 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE MO BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH NO SHOWERS YET...HAVE REMOVED VHSH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AND MOVED TO MID DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION...AND HELP BRING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE TAF
SITES. HAVE CONTINUED MVFR CIGS AT THE WESTERN SITES AROUND
SUNRISE. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FOR LATE IN THE
TAF.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT NEAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH
THE FRONT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH WARM WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER...STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE INTO THE DAY.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SURFACE-
BASED HEATING OCCURS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A FEATURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT.

AS ALWAYS THIS FAR OUT...THINGS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...SO
KEEP MONITORING THE LATEST FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...IF
SEVERE WEATHER CAME TO FRUITION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR AT THIS POINT THAT MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGES OVER THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS MONDAY WITH SHOWERS.
EXPECT A BREAK AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TUESDAY AND START TO
EXIT WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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