Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170118 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
815 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Plenty of cloud cover expected tonight
with current upper and lower moisture streaming in over AR. Light
drizzle in forecast, starting in the west as weak lift moves into AR
overnight and on Friday. Also, some patchy fog may be seen around
sunrise Friday. Clouds will hold lows up to the 40s in most locales.
Late evening update will only fine tune a few elements. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 635 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017
.Aviation...

Overall VFR conditions with some ceilings will start the forecast.
Patchy MVFR ceilings will also be seen, and after midnight, more
MVFR ceilings with patchy drizzle and fog may develop at or near all
Tafs. Winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph, becoming 5 to
10 mph overnight. Areas of MVFR ceilings will start Friday, with
patchy VFR ceilings. Patchy drizzle or light rain will be seen on
Friday. Winds southeast to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 252 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Somewhat unsettled conditions
are expected during this period.

A southwesterly low level jet will develop overnight. Weak
isentropic lift will promote areas of drizzle, with widely
scattered showers developing late tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will affect the forecast areas late
Friday afternoon and during the evening hours, as weak instability
develops ahead of a cold front, that will approach from the north.
Precipitation will move south of the forecast area early Saturday
morning.

Near normal temperatures will prevail during this period

55

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
As the saying goes, if you don`t like the weather in Arkansas, you
picked the wrong state to be in. Wait--that`s how it goes, right?

Anyway, active spring pattern will continue in the long term
periods. A warm front will move northward across the region Saturday
night or early Sunday, as upper ridging tries to build over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures should warm up into the 70s to
lower 80s by Monday, as warming occurs out ahead of an approaching
cold front. Pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds ahead of
the front as well. The boundary will move into the region Monday
afternoon or evening, and will likely stall near southern Arkansas,
as the upper flow flattens out a bit. Several impulses moving
through in the mean flow will interact with the stalled boundary,
keeping at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through Wednesday.

The stalled front will move back to the north as a warm front
Wednesday night/early Thursday ahead of another cold front. As with
the first boundary, increased pressure gradient will allow for gusty
winds over the area. However, unlike the first one, this front will
pack a bit more of a punch. This front will move through Thursday
night or Friday (depending on which model solution plays out), with
showers and thunderstorms expected. Given the setup and the fact
that the environment will be highly sheared, I wouldn`t be surprised
to see a few severe storms with this front. This far out, keep an
eye on it. Successive model runs may change the expected path,
timing, etc. It`s just something to watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     45  68  48  69 /  10  40  60   0
Camden AR         53  73  58  72 /  10  10  30  20
Harrison AR       48  68  43  67 /  20  40  50   0
Hot Springs AR    51  69  55  69 /  20  30  50  20
Little Rock   AR  48  70  54  68 /  10  20  50  20
Monticello AR     51  72  57  70 /  10  10  40  30
Mount Ida AR      53  69  54  69 /  20  30  50  20
Mountain Home AR  45  69  44  68 /  20  40  50   0
Newport AR        45  68  48  67 /  10  40  60   0
Pine Bluff AR     49  71  56  69 /  10  20  50  30
Russellville AR   49  69  52  70 /  20  30  60  10
Searcy AR         45  68  50  68 /  10  30  60  10
Stuttgart AR      47  70  54  68 /  10  20  50  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

57

$$



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