Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A GRID UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR POPS AND WX. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS ACROSS SRN MO...SE
KS...AND NW OK...AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS I
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES. ELSEWHERE I UPDATED POPS AND WX A BIT TO REFLECT
ONGOING TRENDS.

ALSO...AM CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING THE FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PULASKI CO. WILL HAVE
UPDATED INFO ON EVENING PACKAGE. 53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. SFC WIND WILL
BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANALYZED AT
11Z FROM MOUNTAIN HOME...TO MENA.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  32  62 /  20   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  60  31  67 /  20   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       28  55  30  61 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  59  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  58  34  64 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     36  57  34  66 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      32  59  32  63 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  55  31  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        32  55  33  62 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     34  57  34  65 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  59  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         30  56  32  62 /  20   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      32  56  35  63 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$





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