Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250307 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ARE OUT STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATEST MODEL INFO DOES NOT CHANGE ON GOING FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP LINE FROM LIGHT SNOW AND LESS THAN AN INCH OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AR...TO A 1 TO 4 INCH AREA CENTRAL AR...TO A 4 TO 6 INCH BAND OVER
SOUTHERN AR. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLEET START TO SLEET
SNOW...THEN MAINLY SNOW LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...IF MORE SLEET
FALLS...SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD COME DOWN A BIT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO MOVE ALONG THE AR AND LA
STATELINE WITH THE MAX LIFT MID TO LATE MORNING AND INTO EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE SEEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...SO EVEN VERY LIGHT SNOW TO FLURRIES
WILL BE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...UNTIL THE ENTIRE INFLUENCE
OF THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A
FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

.AVIATION...

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF
ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT WINTER STORM TO ARKANSAS
IS OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING SLEET AND SNOW TO SOUTH
ARKANSAS BY MORNING WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL START TO
LOWER DOWN IN THE EARLY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED MVFR BY MORNING
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...THEN IFR IN SOME PLACES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CLOUDS DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS HELPED IN MELTING THE
LAST SNOW EVENT...BUT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN HAS SNOW ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING OUR NEXT
WINTER WEATHER EVENT. LUCKILY THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW. THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS A TROWAL DEVELOPING AND
BRINGING A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER FEATURES...MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE A DRASTIC
GRADIENT BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW AND NO SNOW AT ALL. BASED ON MODEL
PERFORMANCE FROM PREVIOUS EVENTS THIS WINTER...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE NAM MODEL...SO HAVE TRENDED SNOWFALL A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY SNOW BAND...CURRENTLY THINKING THAT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
HEAVY SNOWFALL REACHING ALL THE WAY TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS...AND WILL
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.

A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPR FLOW PATTERN ACRS THE MID SOUTH WL BE DOMINATED BY THE SRN
STREAM THRU MUCH OF THE PD...WITH A PREDOMINANT FLOW FM THE SW. SFC
HIGH PRES WL BE SHIFTING E OF AR AT THE START OF THE PD ON SAT...
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO MODIFY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIP CHCS WL AGAIN BE IN THE INCRS STARTING LATE SAT
NGT...BUT MORE SO HEADING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. A FNTL
BNDRY IS FCST TO DROP SWD INTO AR LATE SUN/SUN NGT. THE FNT WL BCM
QUASI-STATIONARY MON AND MOST OF TUE AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPR FLOW PATTERN. AS THIS OCCURS...SEVERAL IMPULSES WL TRACK ALONG
THE STALLED FNT...PRODUCING GOOD CHCS OF PRECIP OVR THE FA.

CURRENT DATA RMNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TEMPS...KEEPING MOST
AREAS WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. ISOLD TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE OVR
PARTS OF SRN AR. COLDER AIR WL START TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE AREA
LATER MON NGT INTO TUE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR PARTS OF N AR BEFORE
TAPERING OFF BY THE END OF THE PD AS THE FNT PUSHES S OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     24  35  26  35 /   0  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         29  33  26  42 /  20  90  10  20
HARRISON AR       22  36  24  28 /   0  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    27  33  26  39 /  20  70  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  27  34  26  38 /  10  60  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     29  32  25  39 /  20 100  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      25  34  26  38 /  20  70  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  22  36  25  31 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        24  35  25  35 /   0  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     28  32  25  38 /  20  90  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   25  36  27  38 /  10  40  20  20
SEARCY AR         25  34  25  37 /   0  40  20  20
STUTTGART AR      27  33  25  37 /  10  70  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
FAULKNER-GARLAND-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51







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