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000
FXUS64 KLZK 021752
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1152 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER SITUATION IS UNFOLDING ACROSS ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY THERE IS RAIN...SLEET...AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTH...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. FOG IS NOTED IN MOST LOCATIONS.

CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. LIFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. CENTRAL AND
SOUTH SECTIONS WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW WILL BECOME THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE TOWARD THE
END OF THE EVENT AROUND 06Z. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

AVIATION...

IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AR WHILE
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN AR.
A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH AR
TODAY...AND SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS. INITIAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE SEEN BUT
GRADUALLY BECOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS MORE COLD AIR FILTERS
INTO AR. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL AR THIS MORNING...THEN TO
SOUTHERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF IFR WILL ALSO BE SEEN ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...AND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND CHANGE RAIN OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. A TRANSITION TO WINTERY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVER SOUTHERN AR SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEEN LATER
TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF AR MONDAY MORNING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE TRACKING WELL AT THIS TIME...SO ONLY MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE OVERNIGHT. THE
MOST NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES TODAY...BRINGING
THE FREEZING LINE SOUTHWARD QUICKER BY AN HOUR OR TWO COMPARED TO
THE UPDATE ISSUED ON SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE.

THERE REMAINS...DESPITE THE EVENT BEING ON THE PROVERBIAL
DOORSTEP...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. CONVECTION WILL ADD AN
ENHANCED AREA OF QPF TO THE MIX TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-30/US-67
CORRIDOR...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TWO THINGS. THE FIRST IS
WHERE EXACTLY THAT BAND OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN
RELATION TO THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET. THE SECOND ITEM OF CONCERN IS HOW QUICKLY THE WINTRY PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET. THE 06Z MODEL RUNS
OVERNIGHT WERE MUCH LESS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE PRECIP TYPES FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH SHOWED
LESS THAN A 4 HR TRANSITION ONCE THE FZRA BEGAN. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT...IF THE QUICK TRANSITION IS NOT CORRECT...THERE COULD BE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ICING THAT OCCURS. IF TRANSITION IS ON THE
ORDER OF 6-8 HOURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATE IN AREAS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK BETWEEN DE WITT
AND BATESVILLE.

HOWEVER...FOR NOW...HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE UPDATE THAT WAS
ISSUED SATURDAY EVENING. FEEL THE COLD AIR WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP
ENOUGH FOR SLEET TO BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE ONCE WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS.
AS SUCH...FOR THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ICE ACCUMULATION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH PERHAPS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH IN THE EAST TOWARDS MELBOURNE AND EVENING SHADE.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. THE NEXT AREA WILL BE
SOUTH OF JASPER...CLINTON...AND BATESVILLE...AND EXTENDING SOUTH OF
I-40 TO PLACES LIKE DE WITT...PINE BLUFF...MALVERN...AND OVER TO
WALDRON. ICE AND SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY IN THIS REGION
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING IN THE EAST WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE WEST...TO A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
IN THE EAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. BOTH THESE OUTLINED REGIONS REMAIN IN
A WINTER STORM WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH...STUCK WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS
EVENING AND BEGIN TO ERODE PRECIP CHANCES. WITH THIS AREA BEING THE
LATEST FOR COLD AIR TO FIRMLY ESTABLISH A HOME...SHOULD ONLY SEE
ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS THERE. IN THE SOUTHEAST...ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS BUT HELD OFF ON CONVERTING THAT AREA TO A
WARNING YET AS FREEZING PRECIP WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO AREAS LIKE
CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. IF THE FORECAST IS
OFF BY LATE THIS MORNING...A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF WHETHER A WARNING
IS NEEDED IN THE SOUTHEAST CAN BE MADE. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE A FEW HUNDREDTHS...WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW/SLEET AS WELL. THIS IS JUST SHY OF WARNING CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS DRY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION...WHILE SOME WHAT
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS ACROSS THE U.S. MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED A SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN AR WILL BE PUSHED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE QUICKLY AND THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. DRY
FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS AS A SOUTH WIND FLOW SETS UP BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE
60S T0 UPPER 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL AGAIN SEE A CHANCE
OF RAIN...AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
AR. GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN EURO THIS FAR OUT AND SOME TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE MADE. TEMPS LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  12  25  12 / 100 100  20  10
CAMDEN AR         64  22  35  22 / 100 100  10  10
HARRISON AR       30   6  24  13 /  90 100  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  17  31  20 / 100  90  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  17  28  17 / 100 100  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  21  31  20 /  90 100  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      57  16  32  20 / 100  80  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33   9  26  12 /  90 100  20  10
NEWPORT AR        43  13  24  12 / 100 100  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     63  19  28  18 / 100 100  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  14  30  17 / 100  90  10  10
SEARCY AR         50  14  26  14 / 100 100  10  10
STUTTGART AR      60  16  25  15 / 100 100  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-CLEBURNE-
CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51