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000
FXUS64 KLZK 240057
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
757 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Weak convection across southern Arkansas has dissipated. Expected
scattered areas of fog late tonight...especially in
climatologically favored areas.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 611 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

AVIATION...
Isolated weak convective cells across southern sections of the
forecast area will end by 0030z. Expect MVFR conditions due to fog
in locally favored areas between 10 and 14Z.

55

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
today through Monday, and a temperature forecast.

Did see patchy morning fog in parts of AR Friday, and will be in
the forecast to Saturday morning. It did dissipate quickly after
sunrise. Have seen afternoon CU form along moisture field influx
and even isolated showers with a little thunder possible. This
convection is expected to dissipate after sunset. The upper high
pressure is centered over AR, while moisture levels have become
up with a light south flow. The surface high pressure is moving
east. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to lower 90s, while dew
point temperatures in the lower 70s to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday Night

The short-term forecast will have light convection through sunset
today, and again on Saturday while mainly heating of the day to
provide lift. Also patchy fog is again expected around Saturday
sunrise, but should dissipate after sunrise. Some additional
lift will also begin to show in far western AR as the next system
approaches. Highs on Saturday will remain warm with the upper 80s
to lower 90s, while some mid 90s in southern AR. Saturday night,
some low convection chances will be seen in far western AR as the
surface and upper system continues to approach AR. On Sunday, the
upper low pressure trough approaches the eastern Plains, while the
cold front edges east. Convection chances will gradually move east
and cover much of AR Sunday night to Monday, as the upper energy
lifts northeast, and the cold front sags into AR. At this time,
the threat of severe storms appears low and isolated, as models
move the main lift area northeast of AR, while model instability
has LI values only to -1, while Cape values in the 500-around
1500. So the threat at this time remains low and isolated.
Temperatures will remain warm Sunday, while cooling behind the
cold front.

LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

High pressure will be over the southeast U.S. to begin the long
term period with an upper trough over the northern Plains. The
upper low moves into the Great Lakes Monday and to the eastern
Great Lakes Tuesday. High pressure will be over the mid South
Wednesday through Friday.

A cold front will be just east of Arkansas to begin the period. Euro
is coming into better agreement now with the faster speed of the GFS
cold front. The front may stall shortly near the Mississippi River
Tuesday...but will move well east of the area Wednesday. Good
chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday night into
Monday...then a slight chance on Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday
will be dry with high pressure over the area. Cool air will follow
the front. The coolest temperatures will be Monday and Tuesday
before a slow warm up through the end of the week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99