Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 142343 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
545 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WILL START THE EVENING...BUT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO AR FROM THE WEST...MORE MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE SEEN...AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO AR.
CONVECTION WILL START IN THE NORTHWEST AND WEST...THEN IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREAD EASTWARD AND WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE MVFR CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS...WILL
LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN CLOUDS WILL BREAK QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO
15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME SW TO W TO NW AT 10 TO 20
MPH AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALSO A S TO SW LOW LEVEL
JET HAS SET UP AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN AT ALL TAF SITES SURFACE
TO 2000 FEET. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OUT IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
PROGRESSING EASTWARD DUE TO A PUSH FROM A RATHER TIGHTLY WOUND
UPPER LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLES REGION. THE LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHING TOWARD ARKANSAS.

SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT...AM NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...BUT BEHIND IT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN...ALONG
WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. APPEARS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE
MARGINAL...SO AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY WIND-RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN...WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT GET
OUT OF THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASING...AND GULF MOISTURE
MOVING UP INTO THE REGION OVER THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST...WITH A POSSIBLE
WINTRY MIX IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS POOR DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IN ALL
ASPECTS REALLY. PLACEMENT...PRECIPITATION...TEMPS AND THEIR EFFECT
ON PRECIPITATION TYPE...ALL OF THE REALLY IMPORTANT DETAILS ARE
NOTABLY DIFFERENT AMONGST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE GENERAL FEEL OF
THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH...THAT BEING WE WILL HAVE A
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT. IT WILL BEGIN WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THU WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAYBE SOME ISOLD THUNDER
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH OR SERN HALF OF THE STATE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH THU AS WELL AND WITH TEMPS NEAR/AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY MIX THERE.
THIS CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIP ARE MARGINAL THOUGH SO NO NOTABLE
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. NEXT UP IS A STRONG TROUGH EJECTING FROM SRN
CALI OR NRN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY FRI. IT IS HERE THAT MODELS REALLY
DIVERGE AND HAVE TRIED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE ROUTE...WITH BROAD BRUSHED
HIGH-END CHANCE POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. DETAILS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE IMPORTANT THOUGH BECAUSE IT COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN RAIN STATEWIDE...OR A COMBINATION OF RAIN IN SRN ARKANSAS
AND POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR SOME PORTION OF THE NORTH HALF
OF THE STATE. THERE IS NO USE IN TALKING SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT AS
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS RUN THE GAMUT OF POSSIBILITIES REALLY. BUT WITH
THAT SAID...HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE TYPICALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF...WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE COLDER MODEL...AND
ADVERTISE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE NRN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE THOUGH AND IT IS
LIKELY THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRI/SAT SYSTEM WILL COME ONSHORE OUT WEST AND
BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  64  38  48 /  80  60  10   0
CAMDEN AR         54  70  40  54 /  80  40  10   0
HARRISON AR       50  59  33  44 /  80  30  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  65  39  51 /  80  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  67  39  51 /  80  40  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  69  42  53 /  60  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      53  63  39  50 /  70  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  61  36  45 /  90  40  10   0
NEWPORT AR        52  64  40  49 /  70  60  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     52  68  41  53 /  70  50  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  64  37  49 /  80  30  10   0
SEARCY AR         46  65  37  50 /  70  50  10   0
STUTTGART AR      50  67  40  51 /  70  60  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...64











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