Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 222329 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Patchy areas of fog will be possible after midnight, but not
widespread. Clouds will gradually increase on Monday from the west,
with late day isolated showers possible over NW AR. Winds will be E
to SE at 3 to 8 mph or light and variable this evening and
overnight. Winds on Monday will be E to SE at 5 to 15 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
Recent observations indicate clear conditions are prevailing across
the forecast area. Some increased cloud cover is expected
overnight...however any convective development will remain to the
west of the area.

Overall precipitation chances will slowly increase during
this period. Best chances for precipitation appear after
12z Tuesday...as several forecast signals are present for MCS
type activity...to move in from the west and northwest. Forecasts
will reflect temporal and spatial uncertainties with regard to
this type of event.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The period will start off with a weak ridge aloft over the
region...which will gradually shift east by mid week...with SW flow
aloft gradually increasing. As this happens...moisture levels will
continue to increase...and with some disturbances lifting NE over
the state in the SW flow aloft...rain chances will remain in the
forecast as this unsettled pattern continues. Keep rain chances in
the chance category for early in the period as there is no major
focus for precip...or timing of that precip for Tue night through
Thu...with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible.

By late Thu into Fri...the SW flow aloft will intensify further as
the upper trough to the west moves closer to the state. As a
result...expect increased rain chances with coverage of SHRA/TSRA
becoming more widespread. This will also be the time period that may
have better potential for some organized SVR WX given the upper
trough  moving closer. However...it`s a bit early to pinpoint the
exact SVR WX threat at this time.

Over the weekend...do keep some rain chances in the forecast...but
coverage may decrease as the flow aloft becomes weaker. As a
result...expect more pulse-type diurnally driven convection...with
the best potential for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  82  62  82 /  10  10  20  40
Camden AR         60  85  66  86 /  10  20  30  30
Harrison AR       55  79  61  80 /  10  20  30  40
Hot Springs AR    60  82  66  84 /  10  20  30  30
Little Rock   AR  60  83  65  85 /  10  20  20  30
Monticello AR     59  85  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
Mount Ida AR      59  81  65  82 /  10  20  30  30
Mountain Home AR  55  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  40
Newport AR        57  83  63  84 /   0  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     59  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
Russellville AR   58  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  40
Searcy AR         56  82  62  84 /  10  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      60  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...62


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.