Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212322
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE IN
THE SOUTH. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERSISTENT MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN GOMEX AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGION WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN IN PLACE EARLIER THIS WEEK AS WELL AS MOTHERS
DAY WEEKEND...WHICH AS WE KNOW PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF FLASH
FLOODING AND SUBSEQUENT RIVER FLOODING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLY HIGH PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHIFTING
EAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST VALUES ARE
BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...AND ARE ESSENTIALLY NEAR THE SEASONAL MAX
OBSERVED VALUES. SIMILAR PLUMES PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINS EARLY THIS
WEEK AND LAST WEEK...SO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THAT MOISTURE PLUME THAT THEY
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND THAT FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE AN ISSUE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...PLUS THE ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN RIVERS IN THE STATE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS AND POTENTIAL PITFALLS WITH THIS FORECAST AND
APPROACH...ONE OF WHICH BEING IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN THEN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL HAVE BEEN ISSUED WELL IN ADVANCE FOR THE
WRONG PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THIS BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FELT IT
PERTINENT TO GO AHEAD WITH THE WATCH BEFORE PEOPLE LEAVE TOWN. THOSE
INDIVIDUALS WHO WILL SEEK OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...SUCH AS CAMPING OR
OTHER THINGS ON OR AROUND RIVERS AND CREEKS...SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CONDITIONS MAY
RAPIDLY CHANGE AND BECOME LIFE THREATENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE
IS SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM...AND HAVE EXTENDED
RAIN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...ANY RAINFALL WILL ONLY ENHANCE
FLOODING CONCERNS...WITH SATURATED SOILS ALREADY.

MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  69  55  75 /   0  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         55  72  60  82 /  10  10  10  50
HARRISON AR       47  66  52  74 /   0  40  20  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    53  69  59  79 /  10  20  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  71  59  79 /   0  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     54  72  60  80 /  10  10  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      52  68  57  78 /  10  30  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  68  53  74 /   0  20  20  40
NEWPORT AR        49  70  57  76 /   0  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     53  71  59  80 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  70  56  78 /   0  30  20  50
SEARCY AR         49  71  56  77 /   0  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      52  71  59  79 /   0  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR BOONE-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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