Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 190906
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  78  96  77 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       95  71  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  97  75  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  71  96  69 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        95  75  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  74  97  72 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         95  73  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...44










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