Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161725
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1125 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.AVIATION...
High pressure continues over the area with clear skies. Southwest
winds will continue and could be gusty this afternoon in the
north. VFR conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 517 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017
)

DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions through the period...with light winds
this morning. Winds will increase by this afternoon from the
SW...with some gusts approaching 20 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 224 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

A clear sky and dry conditions are ongoing across the state early
this Thu morning as SFC high pressure is moving over the state.
Light winds were noted...allowing temps to drop down into the 20s
and 30s. The SFC high will shift east for this Thu afternoon...with
SRLY flow returning. This SRLY flow will allow temps to warm about 5
to 10 deg above Wed highs...with primarily 60s expected for
afternoon highs. Moisture levels will attempt to increase...but the
increase will be gradual today...with dewpts only increasing from
the 20s and 30s this morning...to the 30s to low 40s by this
evening. The wild fire threat will be elevated...but due to the
recent rainfall...the overall wildfire should remain limited at this
time.

Moisture levels will increase more significantly for Fri as an upper
level closed low lifts NE into the region...with increasing SW flow
aloft. While the forecast will remain dry through the daytime hrs on
Fri...rain chances do return to the forecast for Fri night as the
upper closed low moves over AR. Have only mentioned slight chance to
low end chance POPs at this time as coverage of precip should not be
too widespread. The chances for rainfall will then continue into the
early part of the long term period.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Overall forecast philosophy remains constant regarding features to
affect the forecast area during this period. Two closed upper level
low pressure centers will be affecting the mid south during this
period.  The second of which appears to be the stronger of the two.
However, forecast trajectories continue to indicate that the better
low level moisture transport will affect areas will south of the
forecast area.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51



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