Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 220547 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS
IFR OR LOWER. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING...BUT DETERIORATE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SRN AR AT MID AFTN WHERE TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID AND UPR 50S. WINDS HAD ALREADY VEERED TO THE SE ACRS THE
NWRN PARTS OF THE STATE AS WELL. SCTD SHRA CONTD TO LIFT NWD ACRS
THE REGION DURG THE DAY...WITH AREAS OF FOG NOTED TO THE N OF THE
BNDRY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FNT WL CONT TO LIFT NWD THRU THE REST OF THE
FA TNGT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES SHIFTING TO THE NE ACRS THE PLAINS
STATES. TRICKY PART OF THE FCST TNGT WL BE TEMP TRENDS. MOST
LOCATIONS WL LIKELY SEE THE MERCURY HOLD STEADY EARLY TNGT UNTIL THE
BNDRY LIFTS N OF A GIVEN LOCATION. READINGS CLOUD FALL A FEW DEGREES
OVR NRN AR WHERE SOME DRIER LOW LVL AIR RMNS. CONTD WITH CHC POPS
TNGT...WITH AREAS OF FOG INCLUDED. WL CONT TO MONITOR VSBYS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADVY OVERNIGHT.

BEST RAIN CHCS ON SAT WL BE ACRS WRN AR AND POINTS WWD AS A NEW UPR
LVL STORM SYS BEGINS TO WORK EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. RAIN AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WL BCM MORE WIDESPREAD SAT NGT AND SUN AS THE UPR
LVL SYS MOVES INTO THE REGION. STILL APPEARS THAT THE CHCS OF ANY
SVR WX WL STAY TO THE S OF AR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST REGION. A
GENERAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVR THE FA...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ACRS SRN AR.

RAIN CHC WL THEN DIMINISH HEADING INTO SUN NGT AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW
HEADS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DRIER AND COOLER CONDS WL
RETURN FOR MON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. A NUMBER OF EXPLICIT
SOLUTIONS FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE U.S. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE
COLD AIR WILL AFFECT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  43  61  52 /  50  30  40 100
CAMDEN AR         60  52  70  58 /  60  30  40 100
HARRISON AR       44  41  58  50 /  40  30  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  50  64  56 /  60  40  50 100
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  48  66  54 /  60  30  40 100
MONTICELLO AR     62  52  68  57 /  50  30  30 100
MOUNT IDA AR      54  51  63  55 /  60  40  60 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  40  59  50 /  40  30  60  90
NEWPORT AR        46  44  63  52 /  50  30  30 100
PINE BLUFF AR     56  50  68  56 /  60  30  30 100
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  47  61  53 /  50  40  50  90
SEARCY AR         47  45  63  52 /  50  30  30 100
STUTTGART AR      51  48  66  54 /  60  30  30 100
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






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