Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210601
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...21/06Z TAF CYCLE

CDFNT WAS LOCATED JUST S OF AR EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW LVL STRATUS WL
CONT TO ADVECT SWD...WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS EXPECTED THRU THE
REST OF THE MRNG HRS. MODEL DATA INDC A WEAK WV WL MOVE EWD ALONG
THE LINGERING FNTL BNDRY LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN SOME LOW CHCS
OF RAIN ACRS SRN AR. INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE SRN TAF SITES LATER THIS
MRNG INTO THE AFTN. CONDS WL IMPROVE LATER IN THE PD AS DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DCRS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN CURRENT RIVER FLOODING
AND OVERALL SATURATED GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF AR. CHANCES OF RAIN
LOWER THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN RAIN
RETURNS BACK TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO...AND THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...WITH VERY LOW THUNDER RISK...OVER THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...UNTIL THE SYSTEM TOTALLY MOVES OUT
OF AR LATER THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A GRADUAL DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS
INTO AR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN AR...BUT
LOCATION WILL BE A BIT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
GOES. AT SOME POINT OVER SOUTHERN AR THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
PARALLEL AND BOUNDARY WILL STALL...MORE LIKELY NEAR THE AR AND LA
STATE LINE. THE UPPER PATTERN IS NEARLY ZONAL TO SOMEWHAT A SW
FLOW.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER...THIS EVENING...AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHEAST. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...TAKING
LOWS TO THE 50S. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT TO NORTHERN LA...AND MAINLY A DRY FORECAST OVER ALL OF AR...EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHERN AR WHERE THE BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE. UPPER
LIFT IS MARGINAL ON THURSDAY AND EXPECTING OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.
INTO FRIDAY...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH COOLER TEMPS. ON
FRIDAY...SOME UPPER LIFT IS SEEN IN MODEL RUNS GRADUALLY MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...AND HAVE A SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION COMING INTO
THE WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST HOW FAR EAST THIS WILL HOLD
TOGETHER...AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND APPROACH. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...WITH LIMITED LIFT...MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AR. SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY
NIGHT...A BIT MORE LIFT MOVES INTO WESTERN AR...AND POP CHANCES
COME UP A BIT MORE. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN
AR AND FLASH FLOOD WILL BE A CONCERN. RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE ISSUES.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SET UP AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A SIMILAR PATTERN
TO EARLY MAY. THIS BROUGHT HEAVY RAINFALL TO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. THIS
PATTERN COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING...BOTH RIVER AND
FLASH FLOODING.

GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WHEN THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
ALLOW FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT CHANCE
PPS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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