Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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877
FXUS64 KLZK 162120
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
320 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.Short Term...Tonight Through Sunday

CDFNT pushed thru the FA late last night and early this mrng,
bringing an abrupt end to our unseasonable warm temps just 24 hours
ago. Mid aftn readings were generally in the 40s and 50s over AR, at
least 20 to 30 degrees colder than Thu aftn. Some patchy light rain
was noted ovr the central part of the state, but most was not
reaching the ground.

The weekend wl cont to see an unsettled wx pattern as the
progressive upr pattern brings a series of impulses/rain acrs the
region. Rain chances wl quickly return tngt as the first system
apchs and interacts with the front to the S of AR. WAA/lift wl allow
for widespread rain to form. The rain wl cont well into Sat mrng,
before rain chances dcrs fm the NW later in the day. Sfc temps tngt
look to rmn abv freezing as persistent cloud cover wl hinder cooling
somewhat. Thus, have no mention of wintry precip in the fcst.

A brief respite in the wet weather wl occur Sat night and early Sun
as a weak rdg of high pressure blds into the FA. The high wl shift
quickly Ewd, with clouds and rain chances returning fm the S by Sun
aftn. Looks like the bulk of the rain wl be ovr Srn AR Sun aftn,
shifting Nwd thereafter.
&&

.Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday

The extended period will feature a ridge of high pressure over the
southeast United States, and troughing in the west. This will result
in a persistent southwest wind flow aloft over the middle of the
country, and lots of available moisture.

Moisture will tend to pool around any boundaries that make it into
the region. The main player in this forecast will be a cold front
that approaches from the north by Tuesday. Shallow cold air will be
found behind the front, and the front will be mostly parallel to the
upper flow. Given this, the front will be in no rush to push through
the region.

Realistically, the front will probably come to a halt, with areas of
heavy rain developing from eastern Texas into Arkansas and the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. As far as Arkansas, the heaviest
precipitation is favored from Little Rock toward the
Ozarks/Ouachitas of the north and west.

As far as rainfall, three to five inch amounts will be possible by
the end of period. There could be locally more than half a foot.
Flood/flash flood issues will depend on where the heaviest rain
falls. If the event is mainly over the north/west where it has been
dry for awhile, issues would not be as significant as farther
south/east where it has been very wet. This situation will be
monitored closely.

Temperatures will waver through the period. It will be a mild start,
with closer to seasonal readings later in the week as the front sags
through the area.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...46



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