Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161136 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
THE STRATOCU DECK IS SHOWING SOME BREAKS...BUT CIGS AROUND 2K FEET
WILL REMAIN OVER KHRO AND KBPK. THE MVFR CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
VFR...BUT WILL REMAIN THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. ACROSS THE CENTRAL SITES...THERE WILL BE SOME LOWERING OF
THE CLOUD DECK...BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND
GUSTING TO AT TIMES AROUND 20 KNOTS...BUT WILL DECREASE WITH
SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE WELL
THIS MORNING. MAIN FEATURES ARE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD THAT ONE MODEL SOLUTION CAN NOT REALLY
BE FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER, THAT BEING SAID...WILL USE A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

YESTERDAYS WEATHER MAKER IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LIFTS OUT BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH.

FLAT RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS
TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MID DECEMBER
NORMALS. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA
WEDNESDAY. UPPER IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT MAINLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME WET FLAKES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS BY SATURDAY MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
OVERRUNNING EVENT. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN BUT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SEEMS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR MORNING LOWS.

SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN PRECIOUS RUNS
WERE SHOWING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REFLECTING THIS. HIGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES COULD FALL WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT SHOWING A WARMING
TREND. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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