Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 120137 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 PM CST FRI APR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AR HAS PUSHED WELL SE...WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MO...THEN PUSHING SE. CLOUDS HUNG AROUND OVER
WEST CENTRAL ALL DAY DUE OT INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT MIXING
WINDS OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER CLOUDS NOW FILTERING
IN OVER THE AREA. WILL UP OVERNIGHT CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE SOUTH
WIND HAS BROUGHT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS UP...WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE 50S STATEWIDE. SOME POSSIBLE FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WOULD
BE QUITE LIMITED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING WITH A SOUTH
WIND 3 TO 7 MPH. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.86
INCHES...UP FROM 0.45 INCHES ON THURSDAY. DRY ON SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED WINDS. WINDS MAY REACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. (59)

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10KTS IN
PLACE. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT TO AOA 4KTS BEFORE INCREASING
SATURDAY BY 14-15Z. SOUTH WINDS OF 12-17KS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS
WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AS
WELL...WITH SOME MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AS
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE SOUTH WINDS FROM 14-15Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE 00Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY.

SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
APPEARS THAT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY AS
SEVERAL UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW AND INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE FRONT ITSELF MAY ACTUALLY NOT MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
LEVELING OFF EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...AND FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWEST HALF.

IF THINGS CLEAR OUT QUICK ENOUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE A FREEZE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS ALWAYS...THIS COULD CHANGE...SO KEEP
MONITORING THE LATEST FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...WITH FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
THERE COULD BE A FREEZE AT SOME LOCALES IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND IS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY...A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN
ENERGY/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO GO WELL TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THIS...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  76  60  72 /  10  10  10  50
CAMDEN AR         57  77  63  78 /  10  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       56  74  57  69 /  10  10  10  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  78  64  75 /  10  10  10  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  79  62  76 /  10  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     58  81  64  79 /  10  10  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      57  74  64  73 /  10  10  10  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  78  58  73 /  10  10  10  60
NEWPORT AR        60  76  62  75 /  10  10  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     58  77  63  78 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  78  59  75 /  10  10  10  60
SEARCY AR         58  77  59  70 /  10  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      60  77  63  75 /  10  10  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226








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