Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 260958
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD GIVEN
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNDER
THE HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...
AND MAINLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...AND FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HIGH WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD
THE ROCKIES. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DATA IS NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THAT TAKES US
TO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
MAY REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FROPA. HAVE BEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THU AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL DECREASE FOR THU NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. IN
FACT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT 50S DEWPTS COULD BE SEEN BY
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE FROM THE 70S TO EVEN
LOW 80S DEWPTS SEEN RECENTLY. HAVE NOT DROPPED DEWPTS THAT FAR
YET...BUT HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD GIVEN MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUALLY SHOWING THIS SCENARIO THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT POPS
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  77  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR        100  77 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       94  74  94  78 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    98  78  99  79 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  98  79  99  78 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  78  99  79 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      97  76  98  76 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  75  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        94  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     98  78  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  77  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         96  76  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      96  77  98  78 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-
MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CONWAY-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62


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