Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 140922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
322 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017


Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain each day,
any heavy rain later in the period which may lead to some flooding,
and a temperature forecast. Dense fog is present this morning over
much of AR, and a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9am CST.

On the surface map, the cold front has pushed to northern LA with
a northeast wind flow into AR. The surface high pressure was to
the north, and the colder air has saturated the atmosphere and
low ceilings and dense fog had formed over much of AR. Temperatures
were in the 30s north to central, while the 40s over the south. An
area of light rain was over northwest to northern AR, and was
moving northeast. Aloft, the upper ridging pattern over the
eastern plains has set up a southwest flow, and shortwave energy
was moving over northern parts of AR and to the north.


.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

The low clouds and fog will hold for much of the morning with
light winds and a very moist atmosphere over AR. Most of the rain
today will be focused over northwest and northern AR. and have
kept highest chance over that area. Rain amounts will generally be
less than one inch, as models show lower amounts of shortwave
energy over the region. Temperatures will be warmer today with
the 40s over northern AR, while the 50s central to 60s south.
Saturday night, fog and low clouds will again be seen, with lows
in the 40s most locations, with overall a slight to low chance of
rain. Sunday again will start cloudy with fog, with the low chance
of rain, while mainly focused over northwestern AR. The upper
ridge is forecast to build a bit more into the eastern Plains, and
highs warming to the 50s to 60s. To the west, the developing upper
and surface system will begin spreading better chances of rain
with some thunder Sunday night and into the coming week. Rain
amounts will also come up with better lift. Temperatures will
remain above normal until the cold front on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

A potent upper level shortwave trough will be lifting NE across the
central CONUS at the start of the long term period...with a trailing
cold front moving east into AR Mon into Mon night. Ahead of this
front...a surge of Gulf moisture will be result of deep
SRLY SFC flow. Temps will warm well above normal for Mon as the
front moves into AR...and as a result...scattered to widespread
SHRA/TSRA are forecast. Some strong to SVR storms may be possible
along and ahead of this cold front Mon afternoon...with the best
potential for seeing strong storms across the SRN half of the state.

The cold front will slow Mon night into Tue as the front becomes
nearly parallel to the flow aloft. This front will then regain the
SEWD momentum by late Tue as another upper shortwave surges east
across the plains north of AR. This will push most of the potential
for SHRA/TSRA east of the state for Wed into Thu. While the threat
for widespread heavy rainfall has decreased think rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches remain possible...with locally higher
amounts. The axis of heaviest rainfall still remains uncertain...and
will depend on when/where the cold front slows Mon night into Tue.

Have introduced small chances for rainfall on Thu as some med range
model guidance is suggesting yet another upper wave lifting over the
state. However...considerable uncertainty exists this far out...
especially regarding timing...strength and timing. As a result...
have only mentioned some slight chance to low end chance POPs
Thu...with dry conditions expected to wrap up the forecast for


Batesville AR     47  42  52  48 /  60  40  30  30
Camden AR         67  50  70  57 /  20  20  20  30
Harrison AR       44  40  53  49 /  70  60  40  60
Hot Springs AR    58  49  62  54 /  30  20  20  40
Little Rock   AR  54  48  60  52 /  30  20  20  30
Monticello AR     68  51  69  55 /  20  20  10  10
Mount Ida AR      57  49  63  54 /  30  20  20  50
Mountain Home AR  43  39  51  47 /  80  60  40  50
Newport AR        47  43  50  48 /  60  40  20  30
Pine Bluff AR     59  48  64  53 /  30  20  10  20
Russellville AR   51  47  58  52 /  50  30  20  50
Searcy AR         50  44  56  50 /  30  30  20  30
Stuttgart AR      54  48  59  52 /  30  20  20  20

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Arkansas-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-



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