Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 161737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Updated for 18z Aviation.


Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon
Wednesday, with only isolated showers expected across Arkansas...
having little to no impact on flight rules.

Ceilings will gradually decrease through the overnight as an upper
level trough approaches Arkansas, with widespread MVFR and IFR
conditions possible by morning. A line of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move through the state, reaching
central and southern Arkansas by the late morning/early afternoon
hours Wednesday, which will likely degrade flight conditions to
IFR/brief-LIFR. However, such conditions will be brief and
transient for most terminals.


Prev Discussion.../ Issued 311 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle remain the chance of rain
each day, and consequently a temperature forecast. The overall
threat of strong to severe storms will remain quite low and
isolated. Heavy rain with a risk of flash flooding will be
possible with any strong storms and any area that has repeated

Currently a weakening area of convection was moving northeast over
northern AR, and will continue to move northeast this morning and
weaken. Some heavy rain was noted earlier over parts of northwest
AR. This is associated with an upper weather system moving through
the region. The weak frontal boundary has pushed well north of AR
and is now over MO. A south wind will be seen over AR today. Early
morning temperatures were in the low to mid 70s, while dew point
temperatures were just a few degrees less. Some patchy fog areas
were also seen. Aloft, the upper ridge was off to the east of AR,
while southwest flow was now into AR, especially western AR. This
flow will allow warmer temperatures, and much of any convection
mainly over western to northern parts of AR.

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

Today convection chances will be focused over northwest to
northern AR, while much lower chances central and southern areas.
Forecast has these trends. Short range models do indicate some
upper short wave energy to move over western AR today, a bit more
tonight, then a frontal system and additional upper energy is
forecast to move into northwest AR later tonight to Thursday.
Convection chances are up Thursday morning, while as the upper
support weakens over AR, overall convection chances lower through
the day. Thursday night, a lower chance of convection is forecast,
with the highest in the north, the lowest in the south. The threat
of strong to severe storms will be low and isolated, while a bit
higher late tonight and early Thursday as the front sags through
AR. Also, some patchy fog, dense in spots, will be possible across
AR with the in place moist low levels. Temperatures will be much
closer to normal values with the overall drop in rain chances.
Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s, while lows mainly in the 70s.
Heat index values will rise a bit to the upper 90s to 100 to near
105 degrees, but are not expected to reach advisory levels.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Frontal boundary will remain stalled near the region at the
beginning of the long term periods, as upper flow will be quasi-
zonal in nature. Several systems will move through and interact
with the boundary or remnant convection from it, and this will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the period
(largely diurnally-driven). Upper ridge will contract and expand
at-will, though it should be centered south or southwest of here.
So, though temperatures will warm, readings will be close to
average. With southerly surface flow developing early next week,
dewpoints will increase, and as a result, afternoon heat index
values will approach the 100-105 degree range over the central and


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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