Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191058 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017


Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.
There will be some patchy fog early Thursday, with patchy areas of
MVFR and very isolated IFR may be seen. After sunrise Thursday, any
fog will dissipate quickly. Winds will start light and variable or
light southeast, then become south to southeast at 5 to 12 mph with
some higher gusts in the afternoon. (59)


.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are low in the short term,
with a dry forecast and warming trend. Fire weather concerns
continue with continued overall dry weather for several weeks and
low amounts of rain. The AR Forestry Commission has a moderate to
high wildfire danger over AR with several county burn bans. A
chance of convection will be in the forecast over the weekend to
early next week with a possible weather system affecting the
region. The threat of any strong to severe storms may develop over
the weekend as the storm system moves through the region.

Currently, surface high pressure is centered to the east of AR and
remains the main feature over the region. Aloft the upper high
pressure ridge was over the southern Plains. This will keep the
short term forecast dry with warming afternoon temperatures. Skies
were mostly clear with some high clouds streaming in over AR from
the west. Patchy fog was also seen in spots. Morning temperatures
were from the upper 40s to upper 50s. A dry atmosphere was also
over AR, with dew point temperatures in the 40s. The 00z KLZK
sounding had a precip water value of less than half an inch. Light
and variable to light southeast winds were seen over the area.


.SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

The forecast will stay dry in the short term with overall high
pressure the main influence over the region. Relative humidity
values will gradually increase through Friday, with a south wind
flow, and south wind flow into AR, and dew point temperatures
will reach the 50s by Friday. Aloft, the upper high pressure ridge
will gradually move east into the weekend, and allow upper short
wave energy to move into AR. Isolated convection may develop over
far western AR Friday afternoon to Friday night ahead of the main
system over the weekend. Precip water values reach over 1 inch
Friday night to Saturday ahead of the main system. Temperatures
will stay warm Friday and be above normal values. Wildfire
concerns will continue.


.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

An upper ridge will be in place over the SERN CONUS at the start of
the long term period...with a large scale upper trough traversing
the Rockies Sat morning. This puts AR in SW flow aloft...and SRLY
SFC flow will be increasing throughout the day Sat. Moisture
levels will increase as a result...with dewpts rising from the 50s
back into the 60s by Sat evening. This will be ahead of an
approaching cold front that will drop SE towards AR Sat night. As
the front approaches...the upper level trough looks to strengthen
as it moves ESE over the Plains towards AR...with widespread
SHRA/TSRA developing along and ahead of the cold front to the NW
of AR Sat afternoon. This activity will then drop SE into AR late
Sat night into early Sun morning...with the best potential for
SHRA/TSRA across the NWRN third of the CWA by sunrise Sun.

The convective activity to the west/NW of the state Sat afternoon
looks to be fairly strong...with some strong to SVR thunderstorms
expected in the slight and enhanced outlook areas to the west of AR.
As the cold front moves closer and upper trough deepens further into
an upper closed low...the potential for seeing strong to SVR storms
overnight in WRN and NWRN AR has increased. While still a bit early
to get details on overall SVR threats...early indications are that
damaging winds will be the primary hazards possible as the
convective activity looks to form into a convective line or complex
as it moves E/SE towards AR. Some large hail may also be possible.
The threat for tornadoes...while not great...will be possible given
some decent 0-1 km SRH. However...the overnight inversion may be
strong enough to keep the threat more isolated.

The cold front will then move into the state on Sun...with more of
the CWA seeing showers and thunderstorms. This may bring some good
widespread rainfall for the many areas that have been in rainfall
deficit over the past several weeks. The amount of rainfall expected
from late Sun and beyond remains uncertain as the med range model
guidance continues to disagree in timing of the upper low exiting
the region. The ECMWF and GFS has actually swapped their respective
solutions...with GFS now the more progressive solution with the
ECMWF the slower solution. However...they both have a similar
scenario with an upper closed low forming verses only the GFS
showing a closed low this time yesterday. As a result...keep some
lingering POPs into Mon for many areas...with precip ending by Tue.

By Tue and for the rest of the forecast...will see dry conditions
and cool temps as a new upper trough/closed low dive SE across the
Plains and over the region. This looks to be a much deeper upper low
and fairly strong cold front where temps may eventually become the
coolest so far this season. As for additional precip
potential...there looks to be no time for any moisture return before
this new storm system and cold front move into the region to see any
decent shot for precip. As a result...expect the forecast to remain
dry from Tue through Thu.


Batesville AR     79  52  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         80  53  82  61 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       80  52  79  58 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    80  53  79  61 /   0   0   0  20
Little Rock   AR  80  53  81  60 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     80  54  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      80  52  78  61 /   0   0  10  20
Mountain Home AR  81  51  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        80  52  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     81  52  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   80  51  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         80  50  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      81  53  80  59 /   0   0   0  10

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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