Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 010937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY ACTIVE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE. HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STATIONARY...IF NOT WARM WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH
HAS MINIMIZED IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE NW. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AT 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE THE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH 15Z...WITH TEMPERATURES BEING A BIT SLOWER TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING.

WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. IF NORTHERN ARKANSAS DOES SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY EVENING...IT APPEARS FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP
TYPE WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE. ALL THAT SAID...DO NOT THINK
THE NORTH WILL SEE PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED ON THE DAY SHIFT.

MONDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE AS A WARM
FRONT AND LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF WARMING ACROSS THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE
ECMWF THE WETTEST SOLUTION. TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE THE NAM AND
GFS ON POST FRONTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS.

WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TO START DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES
OVER...DO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY SLEET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
STATE BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

TO ECHO THE COMMENTS OF THE DAY SHIFT YESTERDAY...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE ANYTHING BUT SPRING-LIKE. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS DRIER AIR
AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO THE STATE.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL LARGELY STAY IN THE 30S. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS GRADUALLY MODIFYING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...NO
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  31  40  37 /  50  20  20  50
CAMDEN AR         46  39  43  42 /  70  70  50  50
HARRISON AR       41  24  41  36 /  50  10  20  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  36  43  41 /  60  50  40  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  35  43  40 /  60  40  40  50
MONTICELLO AR     47  39  44  44 /  70  70  50  50
MOUNT IDA AR      44  35  43  40 /  60  40  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  42  26  40  35 /  50  10  10  40
NEWPORT AR        43  32  42  39 /  60  20  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     43  36  41  41 /  70  70  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  35  43  39 /  50  20  20  50
SEARCY AR         42  33  40  40 /  60  30  20  50
STUTTGART AR      42  35  41  41 /  70  50  40  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-PERRY-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.