Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 221744 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR BASES OF
FEW040-050 THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SKC
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS AFTER
15Z TOMORROW.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CDFNT WAS LOCATED OVR SERN AR EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH JUST A FEW
LINGER SHOWERS NOTED ALONG IT. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS
FILTERING INTO THE FA BEHIND THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 40S TO UPR 50S BEHIND THE FNT...WITH LOWER AND MID 60S NOTED
AHEAD OF IT.

THE CDFNT WL CONT TO WORK SEWD OUT OF AR THIS MRNG. SFC HIGH PRES WL
CONT TO TAKE HOLD ACRS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WL BE NOTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON SAT. HIGHS TODAY WL BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO ARND 80. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SAT AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD AND AN UPR RDG CONTS TO BLD
INTO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NOT REALLY ALOT OF CHANGES TO MAKE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD THIS
MORNING.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND THROUGH SEVERAL
IMPULSES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND THESE WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ENOUGH AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
SLOWLY INCH INTO ARKANSAS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN AS WELL...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION.

WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64



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