Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 240837
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51





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