Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211143
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.AVIATION...21/12Z TAF CYCLE

Areas of fog will cont to reduce vsbys at IFR/LIFR lvls for a few
more hrs this mrng...esp over NRN and WRN AR. Expect improving
conds toward mid mrng...with VFR conds prevailing. (64/44)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

No significant changes to be had with the short term forecast. High
pressure aloft will begin to build over the state today and Thursday
as the upper pattern amplifies in response to a deep trough coming
onshore out west. Meanwhile at the surface a weak return flow
pattern will keep warm and humid air streaming into Arkansas from
the south. The presence of the upper high will limit rain chances
and cloud cover so expect dry conditions across the board with
only some thin high clouds at times. High temperatures will remain
well above seasonal norms, with temperatures in the upper 80s to
mid 90s this afternoon and Thursday. Overnight temperatures will
also be above normal with readings in the low 60s to around 70
expected.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Summerlike weather conds look to be the rule acrs the FA heading
into the weekend as a high pres rdg aloft persists ovr the region.
Meanwhile...a deep upr trof rmns fcst to shift sloly EWD into the
Rockies ovr the weekend. This wl result in abv normal temps with the
primary rain chcs staying mainly west of the state.

Based on current model trends...and the fact that the aforementioned
upr trof is still off the coast of the PAC NW...have opted to follow
closer to the ECMWF solution.

Contd to mention chc POPS starting on SUN acrs WRN AR as the upr
storm sys gradually works EWD. Did not go any higher than CHC POPS
for Mon and Tue as there wl likely be some chgs in timing/strength
of the upr sys once it moves ashore.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


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