Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 171451 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
950 AM CDT AUG 17 2016

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Rainfall today will be focused over
central and southern areas of AR, while quite low over northern AR.
The upper pattern continues to have a broad upper low pressure
trough over the eastern plains, the Bermuda High over the southeast
U.S, and consequently upper level energy has been lifting over AR
and developing the rain, showers and a few thunderstorms.
Instability remains low and only over southeast AR is an isolated
thunderstorm is expected. Rain amounts will be lower today with the
highest amounts over southeast AR. Area rivers and waterways remain
elevated and statements and warnings have been issued.  Late morning
update will lower chance of rain just a bit over the region. Highs
will remain below normal values, and mostly be in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 627 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016
.AVIATION...

MVFR or lower conditions will remain possible through this TAF
period as SHRA and some isolated TSRA will continue off and on.
Some patchy dense fog will continue for the next couple hrs at the
NRN terminals...and will again be possible for Thu morning. When
precip coverage decreases this afternoon...some improvements in
flight conditions could be seen. However...these improvements will
not be long lasting.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The wet conditions look to persist through the short term
period...with no significant changes expected in the overall weather
pattern. Early morning regional radar imagery continues to show some
light to moderate areas of rainfall over the SERN half of the
CWA...with dry conditions across the NWRN half. This activity was
continuing along the remnants of a washed out frontal boundary...and
aided by some upper level energy/shear axis that is draped across
AR. While the frontal boundary will become even less evident through
today...the upper level disturbances look to continue to move over
portions of the state. As a result...keep fairly high POPs across
central and SERN sections of the state...or the SERN two-thirds of
the CWA. Expecting mainly rainfall...though cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder. Rainfall amounts in this region should remain
less than 1 inch...and rainfall rates are not expected to be very
high. Even so...there may be some localized pockets of heavier
rain...which may result in some isolated flash flooding concerns.

The areas of best precip chances will shift slightly NW for
Thu...and coverage may become a bit more scattered and diurnally
driven in nature. Rainfall amounts will also range from a half to
three-quarters of an inch for Thu into Thu night...and any flash
flooding and heavy rain threats will be isolated.

Temps through the period will continue below normal for highs...with
highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 60s and 70s...and
mostly cloudy conditions will remain the norm.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

The unsettled wx pattern wl prevail into much of the upcoming
weekend. SWLY flow aloft wl bring several more upr impulses acrs the
region. These systems wl interact with the abundant moisture to keep
good rain chcs in the fcst.

By late in the weekend...a strong NRN stream upr trof is fcst to
shift EWD thru the NRN/CNTRL Plains States and eventually into Great
Lakes region early next week. This wl allow the new CDFNT to drop
SEWD thru much of AR by late Mon...with a much needed respite fm the
wet wx pattern. However...clouds wl begin to incrs by Tue as the
assocd sfc high shifts EWD and S/SELY winds return to the region.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...62



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