Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261803
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS VERY NEARLY PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT...HIT AND MISS PRECIP IS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AR...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN AR
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RA AND/OR SN MIX
AT KHRO AND KBPK. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR VISBYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE.
CURRENTLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTH OF ARKADELPHIA AND
STRETCHING TO PINE BLUFF. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS DROP
OFF QUICKLY WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AND LOWERED POPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL SURROUND PRECIPITATION. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING.

AS PRECIPITATION EXITS...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND WILL BE GUSTY. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FROM LITTLE ROCK EASTWARD.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MUCH OF THE STRONG TO SVR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS
EARLY THU MORNING...WITH MAINLY SOME SCATTERED AND OCCASIONAL
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ONGOING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HRS. HOWEVER...SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA COULD
STILL SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MAYBE SVR STORM THIS MORNING...WITH
DAMAGING HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREATS. MUCH OF THE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALSO ENDED...WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WED
EVENING. THE ONGOING RAINFALL THIS MORNING IS GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE...WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND THEN DECREASING FROM NW TO SE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY NRLY
WINDS WILL BE SEEN...AND HAVE ALREADY POSTED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO LESSEN FROM NW TO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM OR SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SE OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED. SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP COULD ALSO BE SEEN ACROSS NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED...THOUGH COULD SEE PRECIP MIXING WITH SOME
SLEET AND OR SNOW BY AROUND SUNRISE FRI. ANOTHER SUCH SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...WITH SIMILAR WX EXPECTED. THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH SAT.

WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR SUN AS SRLY FLOW RETURNS.
HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE LATE ON
SUN...WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAINFALL RETURNING FOR A LARGER PORTION
OF THE STATE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION MONDAY...AND MAY STALL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THAT WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT/A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  52  35  49 /  20  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         39  65  41  68 /  10   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       35  51  35  56 /  20  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  61  40  64 /  10   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  57  39  59 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     38  60  40  63 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      38  61  39  65 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  36  52  35  50 /  20  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        36  52  34  49 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     37  57  39  60 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  58  39  62 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         37  55  36  53 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      38  55  37  56 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...224








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