Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 191140
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

STILL EXPECT SOME PTCHY BR EARLY THIS MRNG...BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR CAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD.
CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS SWRN MO/NERN OK HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN IN THE
LAST FEW HRS. THE ASSOCD OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD SET OFF A FEW STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN THE FCST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDCG SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF SRN AR LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KADF AND KLLQ. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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