Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 262347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Convection is beginning to die down with conditions beginning to
improve as the line of showers and thunderstorms progresses east
out of Arkansas. Overnight IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities
will settle in across most terminals. Some gusty winds will be
possible as well overnight. Widespread VFR conditions will return
by mid morning.



SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday
Biggest issue in the short term will be dealing with convection
ahead of the cold front tonight, as well as remaining severe
chances, and heavy rainfall possibilities.

As of now, cold front is basically from near Harrison to between
Mena and Poteau. Convection out ahead of the front has been severe
in places, shifting from northern/western Arkansas this morning to
southern Arkansas this afternoon. The south will be where the
highest severe chances will be, as low pressure pushes northeast
into Arkansas, and interacts with an instability axis over
southern into southeastern Arkansas. Additional rainfall could be
heavy at times, which could lead to localized flash flooding

Convection will push eastward through the evening, as the front
moves on across the state. Front will shift eastward, stalling out
briefly to the south of Arkansas. By Friday, the front will move
back to the north, then stall out in the vicinity of western and
northwest Arkansas. This will lead to issues into the weekend.
More on that in the long term discussion...

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
After a drying out period during the end of the short term period,
the long term is shaping up to be a very wet period, with perhaps
some severe storms sprinkled in for good measure.

First, the pattern.  Broad troughing over the Rockies will yield
southwesterly flow over the Mid and Lower Mississippi River Valley
areas Friday night into Saturday. The trough will deepen Saturday as
it transitions to a closed upper low, before ejecting northeast
across the southern and central plains late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Meanwhile at the surface, a stalled frontal boundary
will be positioned across northern Arkansas. This will act as a
focus for showers and thunderstorms, and resulting heavy rains,
Friday evening through early Sunday. Eventually, as the upper low
ejects into the Saturday night, this front will shift east and exit
the state. Until it does so however, copious amounts of Gulf
moisture will stream northward into Arkansas to feed the convection
that develops, which will result in heavy rains. Forecast PWAT
values in some guidance are nearing or above all-time highs. Whether
this is realized is irrelevant, as the pattern supports PWAT plumes
that will be well above normal.

Now, onto the nitty gritty. There are two hazards for this upcoming
weekend. First, forecast rainfall amounts from Friday afternoon
through Sunday are quite impressive. Some guidance indicates double
digit rainfall totals could occur in portions of west central
Arkansas during this period. While it`s hard to say whether that
will be realized or not, what we are confident in saying is that
widespread rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches appear to be a
very good bet. This axis of heavy rain will likely be centered from
around Johnson/Logan counties up through Sharp county, with the
heaviest amounts predicted to be from perhaps Stone or Searcy county
back to the west. This will generate some flash flooding and river
flooding. The scope of the flooding will depend largely on exactly
where that axis of heavy rain sets up and how wide it is, and
obviously the end amounts. However it would probably be wise to pay
attention to the forecasts over the next day or two as clarity in
the details will offer a better idea of what to expect.

The second hazard will be the severe storms aspect. Forecast
soundings through this period, look sufficient for supercell
thunderstorms. While several waves of convection are expected, the
most likely periods for severe storms looks to be Friday evening and
Friday night, and then again late Saturday night as the upper trough
moves through the plains. Instability and shear all appear
sufficient to produce at least some severe weather, with damaging
winds and hail being the primary threats. Tornadoes will also be a
possibility, but the nocturnal timing of storms makes this a
difficult call. As with the flooding aspect, time will bring clarity
to the details of this setup so individuals are encouraged to
continue to monitor future forecasts.

By midday Sunday the upper trough will be overhead, while the cold
front and associated convection will be east of the state. A much
needed dry spell is expected to round out the long term period.

As conditions will be rather wet into next week, no significant
fire weather issues are anticipated.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-



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