Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 160953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
351 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE WELL
THIS MORNING. MAIN FEATURES ARE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND THE NEXT UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT LATER IN THE PERIOD THAT ONE MODEL SOLUTION CAN NOT REALLY
BE FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER, THAT BEING SAID...WILL USE A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

YESTERDAYS WEATHER MAKER IS NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
PULLING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LIFTS OUT BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH.

FLAT RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS
TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MID DECEMBER
NORMALS. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA
WEDNESDAY. UPPER IMPULSES WILL LIFT OUT OF THIS TROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT MAINLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME WET FLAKES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS BY SATURDAY MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
OVERRUNNING EVENT. TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN BUT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW SEEMS LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR MORNING LOWS.

SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH FASTER THAN PRECIOUS RUNS
WERE SHOWING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE REFLECTING THIS. HIGH AMOUNTS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES COULD FALL WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...AS
WEAK UPPER RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT SHOWING A WARMING
TREND. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  29  44  33 /   0   0  10  60
CAMDEN AR         53  33  51  39 /   0   0  10  60
HARRISON AR       43  27  44  33 /   0   0  10  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  31  47  37 /   0   0  10  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  51  32  47  37 /   0   0  10  60
MONTICELLO AR     53  34  50  39 /   0   0  10  50
MOUNT IDA AR      49  29  47  36 /   0   0  10  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  27  43  32 /   0   0  10  60
NEWPORT AR        49  29  44  34 /   0   0  10  50
PINE BLUFF AR     52  33  48  37 /   0   0  10  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  29  46  35 /   0   0  10  60
SEARCY AR         50  30  45  35 /   0   0  10  60
STUTTGART AR      51  32  46  37 /   0   0  10  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58





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