Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 210231 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
930 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.Discussion...

Clouds were breaking up over AR this evening and are expecting
partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight. Areas of fog are also
expected to form with surface moisture levels remaining up. Patchy
low clouds may also be seen, but not become widespread. Lows
tonightwill be in the 50s to 60s. Then overall dry and warmer for
the weekend. Late evening update will fine tune a few elements but
no major changes expected. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../Issued 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/
.Aviation...

VFR and areas of MVFR ceilings will continue this evening and into
the overnight. Low level moisture is present and as temps cool
tonight with thinning of clouds occurs, areas of dense fog and low
stratus clouds will be possible. MVFR and IFR conditions will be
seen late tonight and early Saturday morning near or at TAF sites.
Winds will be light from the NW to N to NE or become light and
variable. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 150 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Most areas are remaining dry early this Fri afternoon...with
generally a mostly cloudy sky as a result of the upper level trough
moving overhead. Some very spotty SHRA or even just some -RA was
ongoing across far NWRN sections of the state. Some breaks in the
clouds were also noted across SRN and SERN sections of the CWA this
afternoon...allowing for temps to warm into the 70s so far this
afternoon.

Expect the mainly dry conditions to persist through the rest of the
afternoon as the upper level trough moves east of the area. Probably
won`t see an area-wide improvement in cloudy conditions until later
tonight...and even then...will likely see many areas under a  partly
to mostly cloudy sky into Sat as well. A weak upper wave will drop
SE in the NW flow aloft Sat afternoon and evening...which may
trigger some SHRA to the north and west of the CWA. For now...think
dry conditions will prevail...and have kept only silent pops for
this activity to enter the LZK CWA.

A similar scenario will be seen for Sun...though with SFC high
pressure dropping south over ERN sections of the state...could see
more sunshine and continuing dry conditions. Rain chances do return
for the long term period as more persistent SRLY SFC flow will
develop over the region compared to the drier north and NERLY flow
expected over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

A southwesterly flow pattern is expected to develop early in this
period. Several disturbances in this fast flow will traverse across
the mid south during this period...and will promote several rounds
of precipitation.  At this time...explicit medium range numerical
model guidance does not advertise any pronounced signal for severe
weather or excessive rainfall potential during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  77  55  80 /  10  10  10  10
Camden AR         60  84  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
Harrison AR       51  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    57  81  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  59  80  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
Monticello AR     61  82  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      55  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  52  76  55  80 /  10  10  10  10
Newport AR        56  77  56  81 /  10  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     60  80  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
Russellville AR   56  80  59  81 /  10  10  10  10
Searcy AR         57  78  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      60  79  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...55



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