Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251651
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1051 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a chilly night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures plummeted into the 20s under cloudy
skies and northwest breezes. High pressure at the surface was
shifting into the southern Plains.

This high track will allow cold air advection to continue through
today, limiting afternoon temperatures in the 40s. No
precipitation is expected today or tonight. Southerly winds will
return late tonight, with temperatures falling into the 20s again
by midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Several models are signaling some light precipitation late Sunday
morning across east central Kansas and west central Missouri. This
is in response to an approaching upper level disturbance. The 00z
ECMWF does not suggest any QPF, throwing some uncertainty into
Sunday`s precip forecast.

With the lower trop very dry Sunday morning, we think that if
precip does occur, it will hold off until midday. This would
cause precipitation to be rain as opposed to snow. Therefore we
have all rain chances going and leave the snow out at this time.

Much warmer air then moves into the region by Monday and Tuesday,
with highs in the 70s Tuesday afternoon. No preciptiation is
expected either day.

Although by Tuesday night, a front will approach from the north,
triggering showers and thunderstorms across southern Missouri.

A shot of Canadian air will following Tuesday night`s storms for
Wednesday and Thursday. This will drop overnight lows back into
the upper 20s and 30s late in the week.

There doesn`t appear to be any chances for Arctic air within the
next week or even beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Sfc high
pressure over the Plains will become centered over northern AR by
early evening then shift off to the east. NW winds will diminish
this afternoon becoming light variable this evening before south
winds develop after 04z. VFR ceilings will lower late in the taf
period as a disturbance approaches.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA



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