Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A shortwave embedded in a vigorous nw upper level flow pattern
helped produce an area of showers/isolated thunderstorms late
yesterday and overnight. By 2 am, some rain was still lingering
over far southern MO. Small areas of nw-se oriented banded precip
from forcing in the persistent upper level baroclinic/frontal
zone has produced some localized higher amounts of rain where
brief cell training has occurred. No hydro warnings out, but some
12 and 24 hr radar derived/estimated rainfall amounts indicate
well over an inch of rain.

The ongoing showers will exit the region over the next few hours.
We will monitor near term fog potential, especially over the
northern cwfa in central MO where clouds should be less persistent.
Some stations are already getting some fog in the MO River valley.

Sfc high pressure centered over IA will shift southeast with our
winds gradually veering to the southeast and south later today
and tonight. It should be a pretty nice day with afternoon high
temperatures a few degrees below normal for the date. South winds
will pick up tonight with milder temperatures, especially over the
western cwfa with low pressure over the High Plains ahead of an
approaching shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Wed-Thu: A continued warming trend is expected Wednesday with
breezy/gusty south winds with sfc troughing/front off to our west
and northwest. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
Midwest southwest into nw MO and northeast KS by late Tue night
into Wed morning with additional development or intensification
Wed afternoon/evening. The farther south and southwest you go,
more capping and dryer air limits tstm chances into our forecast
area, but will still carry some small tstm chances in our
northwest and northern cwfa.

Thu night-Fri-Fri Night: We should see better chances for
thunderstorms as a shortwave/jet streak moves ese into the lower
MO River Valley with a sfc front approaching and then moving into
our cwfa by 12z/7am Fri. The front will move southeast through
most of our area during the day Fri, stalling near or just south
of the MO/AR border Friday night. Will monitor for a severe storm
threat during this time. Vertical shear will support organized
storms, and thermodynamic profiles show mlcape values of 3000 j/kg
ahead of the front on Fri.

Sat-Sunday-Mon: It looks active as we approach the 4th of July

A persistent dip in the upper level westerlies with a left over
sfc front stalled over or just to our south will lead to the
potential for active wx/periodic thunderstorm chances during this
time. As you might guess, global model are having a tough time
resolving smaller mesoscale features and there are fairly
significant differences in guidance by day 7/Mon, mainly due to
the timing of the next approaching shortwave and associated sfc
front. Blended model guidance has the highest rain chances
Sunday/Sunday night, but confidence in more precise timing really
drops off by Sunday/Mon. With a lot of outdoor events and
activities coming up during this time, everyone will need to keep
a close watch on forecast trends.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at
the TAF sites this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Surface
high pressure is currently over the region and will slide off to
the east on Wednesday. The pressure gradient will tighten across
the area on the back side of the high, resulting in gusty winds
at the TAF sites on Wednesday.




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