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000
FXUS63 KSGF 210451
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A broad area of warm air and moisture advection was ongoing across
the region through the day today. That has resulted in scattered
showers or sprinkles developing across the area this afternoon and
should linger into this evening. The showers will diminish as we
head into the overnight hours.

The upper level pattern continues to become southwesterly which
will continue to allow for increase shortwave activity through the
overnight and during the day on Saturday. A strong 850mb jet will
impact the region through the overnight hours aiding in brining
additional moisture and energy into the region as we head through
the day Saturday. This will make for another warm and very windy
day. Wind gusts are expected to reach 30-35mph in many locations
during the day and evening hours.

The increasing moisture will again aid in the potential
development of scattered showers across the region during the day
Saturday in the warm sector. The showers would be very light as
afternoon temperatures climb into the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

There has been very little changes in the models for the cold
front and expected severe weather potential from last nights
model run to today. The combination of the cold front, producing
ample lift, strong shear from the aforementioned low level
(850mb) jet, dew points in the vicinity of 60 degrees and
instability expected to be 900-1800 j/kg in advance of the front
will be ample to produce a strong to severe storms concern.

The storms are expected to develop into squall line fairly
quickly as the front moves across the plains and towards the
Ozarks. The primary mode of severe weather will be damaging
straight line winds in excess of 60 mph as the line moves east.
Isolated large hail to quarters will be possible with the
strongest updrafts that occur along the line.

With the amount and orientation of the shear expected with the
system, will need to watch any segments of the squall line the
attempt to bow to the northeast. This could signal the potential
for a QLCS tornado to occur.

Will also be watching for the potential of 1-2 inches of rainfall
for most of the region as a result of the moisture advection over
the preceding 48 hours. With the exception of areas north and
west of I-44 most locations will be able to handle this amount of
rainfall.

Locations along and west of US Highway 65 continue to have the
overall best chances of seeing severe weather late Saturday night
with storms generally weakening east of Springfield. This matches
well with the latest Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook.

As we head into next week the upper level pattern looks to develop
a cutoff upper low which will bring a period of cooler than
normal temperatures to the region for the middle of next week. It
will also bring fairly quiet weather to the region. The chances
for precipitation will be very low through the week with the next
potential rainfall coming late in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Gusty south to southeasterly
winds will continue to occur at the TAF sites tonight, and be
strongest Saturday morning/afternoon. There will also be low level
wind shear overnight tonight into Saturday morning. These gusty
winds will occur as a storm system approaches from the west.

There will be some lift across the area later tonight into
Saturday morning which could result in an isolated shower and
maybe a rumble of thunder, but coverage and chances for a TAF site
will be low.

A cold front will being to push into the area from the west
Saturday evening. Showers and storms are expected to develop along
the front. The front will likely push into the KJLN area between 3
and 6Z push east to the KSGF/KBBG sites very late in the TAF
period if not just beyond. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible
within any storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Wise