Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 311954
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...FREEZE WARNING POSTED FOR TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cold air was spreading across the Ozarks Region this afternoon as
north breezes were gusting up to 30 mph at times.

This airmass originated from northern Canada, and will create a
hard freeze tonight into Saturday morning. Temperatures will fall
into the low to mid 20s, under clear skies and light winds.

Despite the return of southerly winds and sunshine on Saturday,
temperatures will struggle to warm out of the 40s in most
locations. Readings in the 50s are possible near Joplin and
Neosho.

No rain possible through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)

Showers and thunderstorms return to the Ozarks Region by Monday.
Models are in good agreement with the gradual approach of a
positively tilted long wave trough. This feature will force a
large band of convection from Texas up into the Great Lakes.

Widespread rainfall amounts will range from one to two inches
Monday through Tuesday night.

Models have sped up the passage of this wave, suggesting rain will
end northwest to southeast Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Beyond Tuesday night, the ECMWF and GFS diverge in handling an
upper level cutoff wave over Texas. The GFS progresses it across
the deep south, leaving the Ozarks Region dry. The ECMWF pulls it
north and creates a pattern for rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A large amplitude ridge was over the high Plains and allowing for
a Canadian air mass to plunge into the area today/tonight. Stratus
was just about through the entire CWA and should be by the onset
of the 18z TAFS. VFR conditions are expected through the period as
this cold and dry air from Canada settles into the area tonight.
The cold air advection and gusty winds will persist through the
daylight hours, but should drop off by or shortly after sunset
with very light wind expected after midnight tonight.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg






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