Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 240449
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDER IN KANSAS NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO STAY NORTH OF OKLAHOMA BORDER OVERNIGHT THUS ALL TAF SITES
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 21Z. AS COOL FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AFTER 21Z FOR TAF SITES KMLC KXNA KFYV KFSM. FRONT WILL
STALL OVER SE OK LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER WITH
VWP DATA SHOWING LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN BY SHORT
TERM DATA. HOURLY CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH
CONSISTENCY REGARDING OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND GIVEN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...ANY STRONGER STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A PASSING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
MAY ALSO SPARK HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND CURRENT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK FINE.
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES OVERHEAD...AND FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE A
QUICKER COOL DOWN THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  80  52  76 /  10  10  10  60
FSM   52  78  55  77 /  10  10  40  30
MLC   58  80  56  77 /  10  20  20  30
BVO   56  80  44  74 /  20  10  10  60
FYV   52  75  50  73 /  10  20  30  40
BYV   52  74  51  74 /  20  20  30  40
MKO   55  78  53  76 /  10  20  20  50
MIO   53  75  47  73 /  30  20  20  60
F10   57  80  54  77 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   53  79  59  78 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21





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