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000
FXUS64 KTSA 082332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ERN OK TAF SITES AFTER 15-17Z...WITH MVFR CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS
THE NW AR SITES FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER ECHOES LIKELY CORRESPONDING TO SLEET
BASED ON SFC OBS AND A FEW PUBLIC REPORTS. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SERIOUS TRAVEL ISSUES AS SFC TEMPS MOSTLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK...THOUGH HEAVIER BURSTS COULD RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUM ON ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN AS UPPER AIR SUPPORT
WANES WITH MID LEVEL SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS WE SPEAK. MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN OK THROUGH NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WITH WSW-ENE ORIENTED WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR SE OKLAHOMA. WILL BASE FIRST PERIOD
POPS MAINLY ON RADAR TRENDS AS MODEL QPF ARE STRUGGLING WITH
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...SHOULD SEE A
QUICK END TO PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND A
SLOWER TAPERING OFF IN THE FAR SOUTH. CLEARING SKIES OVER NE
OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS ALONG KS BORDER.

AS CURRENT SYSTEM SHEARS APART...SOME OF THE REMNANT ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTHWEST INTO POSITION OF UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO....WHICH WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO HOLD CLOUDS IN
PLACE TO THE SOUTH LONGER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE A MUCH
MILDER DAY...THOUGH TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

SIGNIFICANT WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A MODERATE SW COMPONENT
TO LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING TO SEND TEMPS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL VEERING OF WINDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH TODAY`S RAINFALL WILL
HELP A LITTLE...FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OK...WITH ENOUGH INCREASE IN RH
BY TUESDAY TO OFFSET THIS SOME. FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD PROVIDING MAINLY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
COOL DOWN BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN THE
DRY PATTERN...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23