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000
FXUS64 KTSA 300518
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS GREEN COUNTRY AND THE OZARKS. A FLAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ALOFT. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS TOPPING THE RIDGE...THUS SCT TO
BKN CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAK ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW OVER ERN CO/WRN KS AND BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING SOUTH WINDS AND MILDER
TEMPS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVER IN WESTERN AR CLOSER TO
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. STILL NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE RETURN
WITH THOSE SOUTH WINDS...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED
ALONG THE GULF COAST...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY ON SATURDAY...AS
LOW LVL WARM AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
WILL GET BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE IN SOME
SPOTS.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RING IN DECEMBER BUT WE WILL
PAY THE PRICE LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME A LIGHT SOUTH WIND
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT...AND BRING
EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SURGING NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL. WARMING TREND WILL RE-COMMENCE DURING
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MUCH
HIGHER DEW POINTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SURGE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA BY
MID WEEK WITH INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE BIG CHANGES START TO TAKE
PLACE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
THAT WILL BE A RUDE REMINDER THAT IS IS...IN FACT...DECEMBER.
FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. THE BOTTOM
LINE HERE IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IN ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FEATURES A SW FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE COLD
AIRMASS WITH ONE OR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER WEATHER. A LOT
OF DETAILS YET TO BE WORKED OUT OF COURSE REGARDING PRECIP TYPE
AND AMOUNTS...NOT TO MENTION TIMING. STAY TUNED!

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10