Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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277
FXUS64 KTSA 091653
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1053 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty NW winds will
subside this evening, with a shift to a southerly direction by mid
to late morning tomorrow as a surface ridge axis passes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Gusty northwest winds developing once again across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Very low dew points across the
region will lead to low relative humidities once again this
afternoon, despite temperatures still running at near to just
below normal levels. Red flag conditions becoming increasingly
likely across west central Arkansas, and will be possible in far
northwest Arkansas. Main update to the going forecast has been to
upgrade the existing Fire Weather Watch for this afternoon to a
Red Flag Warning. In addition, tweaks to the sky cover to account
for the mid cloud deck over far western parts of the forecast area
that should slide southeastward during the day. Updated products
already out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
West to northwest sfc winds will gust between 20-25 kts from mid
morning through late afternoon. Winds will relax around 00z.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF
period at all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Updated to include coding for Fire Weather Watch for west central
Arkansas for this afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today though to a lesser
extent than yesterday with continued low dewpoints in place. The
result will be another day of wildfire potential despite the
slightly below normal high temps. The gradient will lessen by
late afternoon which will aid any ongoing fire suppression
efforts.

Winds quickly turn southwesterly tomorrow w/ strong warm advection
throughout the day beneath sunny skies. The result will be a sharp
warm up ahead of the next cold front which passes through the area
Wednesday night. The temperature swings will continue with
Thursday cooling down before another quick warm up on Friday. This
is only to be followed by a stronger cold front Friday night
leading to noticeably cooler temps on Saturday. The frequent
frontal passages and dry northwesterly flow will keep the area dry
into next weekend.

A strong wave will move into the plains on Sunday and will support
a chance of precip...however given the variability amongst
guidance along with the expected meager moisture return...overall
precip chances currently appear low. Data continue to support a
robust warming trend during the first half of next week...which
may lead to continued fire weather issues.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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