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000
FXUS64 KTSA 261131
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
531 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
STUBBORN MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED WARMUP BEGINS TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK MUCH TOO COOL TODAY (MAINLY IN ERN
OK)...AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG MIXING. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR 70F FOR PARTS
OF ERN OK...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL. COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE
EXTENDS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BE LESS GIVEN
THE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS. EVEN SO...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MID 70S LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK.

DESPITE THE 3 DAY STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER...RECORD HIGHS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CLOSE TODAY AT TUL/MLC.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE JANUARY...

         JAN 26      JAN 27      JAN 28
TUL.....71 (1911)...74 (1914)...82 (1909)
MLC.....72 (1994)...76 (1975)...77 (1970)
FYV.....74 (1952)...72 (1975)...72 (2002)
FSM.....80 (1952)...78 (1914)...79 (1970)

AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AIR TO KNOCK THURSDAYS
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN A GOOD 15-20F DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

CONFIDENCE HASN`T INCREASED CONCERNING THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING
THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE COLD AIR
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS
(WHICH GETS SUPPORT FROM THE GEM/DGEX)...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW. THE FORECAST DETAILS WILL NO
DOUBT CHANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE-TUNED...SO STAY AWARE OF
THE LATEST UPDATES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10