Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191143
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
643 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today, and become
more numerous this evening, with a squall line likely to move
across the area. VFR to occasionally MVFR ceilings will be common
outside of thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Remnant showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Additional
thunderstorms have developed over central Oklahoma and into
Osage and Pawnee counties as a 60 knot low level jet enhances
the the insentropic lift across the region. This activity is
expected to continue over the next several hours as it move off
to the northeast. This activity has the potential to be strong
to marginally severe as elevated instability remains somewhat
favorable. Large hail would be the primary concern.

More showers and thunderstorms will be likely Today and into Tonight
as a series of factors come together. Thunderstorms now developing over
southwestern Texas are expected to spread into south-central Oklahoma Late
this morning before decaying. The resultant outflow boundary could spawn
showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma by early afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the vicinity of
a cold front this afternoon across central Oklahoma and spread into
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. Some of the storms
could become severe later this afternoon into Tonight as adequate instability
and shear will be in place across the region. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main concern. However, tornadoes will be possible. Heavy rains
will also be a concern and with the ground already saturated from recent
rains it will not take much to cause flooding. Therefore, have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch further to the south and east. The showers and thunderstorms
are expected to exit the area Saturday morning as the cold front exits to the east.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms return Monday and continue into Tuesday
as a series of mid-level shortwaves affect the region as a northwesterly flow
aloft develops. The remainder of the forecast is dry as the northwesterly flow
aloft persists.



&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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