596
FXUS64 KTSA 062344
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week
     with higher chances for the first half of the week.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range
     toward the latter half of next week, with a cold front
     possible by the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Moist southerly low level flow continues today. It`ll be warm and
humid with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and dew points mostly
in the low to mid 70s. A weak frontal boundary is stalled just
north of the forecast area. This, along with a little forcing from
a transient and weak upper level trough will likely kick off a
few showers and thunderstorms across far northeast OK and northwest
Arkansas through this evening. A few showers or storms may also
form this afternoon due to diurnal heating through the rest of
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A pattern of diffuse troughing will continue through the first half
of the week, with periodic weak impulses increasing storm activity
from time to time. CAM guidance seems to be increasing in
confidence that one such feature will increase storm activity
across far eastern OK and northwest AR on Monday. Another round of
showers and storms may spread through the area with a follow on
feature Tuesday and Wednesday. Most areas will probably see a half
inch of rain or less, but given very high moisture content, a few
locations could see (potentially) much heavier rain, even if
briefly. A few of the storms may become marginally severe in terms
of wind, but overall non severe storms will be the norm.

Shortwave ridging returns for a day or two Thursday to Friday, so
storm activity will diminish with temperatures climbing into the mid
90s. Given recent rains, dew points will likely surge into the mid
to upper 70s, so afternoon heat indices will approach Heat Advisory
criteria (105 F). The increased heat won`t last long, with
another cold front approaching towards the weekend. Ensemble
guidance shows decent confidence in another wet period next
weekend, though details are unknown at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will remain common across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening as isolated
to widely scattered showers/storms drop south and southeast out
of Kansas and Missouri. Will carry a Tempo group for KBVO and
Prob30 groups at KXNA/KROG/KFYV for timing. Brief MVFR
conditions, gusty winds, dangerous lightning and brief heavy rain
are capable within the stronger convection this evening. Late
evening through Monday morning, scattered mid/high clouds are
forecast for the CWA. There may be a brief period of reduced
visibility around sunrise, though conditions should quickly
improve after sunrise. During the day Monday, scattered to broken
mid and high clouds are again forecast over the CWA. Additional
storm chances develop Monday afternoon and have added another
Prob30 group to northwest Arkansas TAF sites. Winds through the
period start out southerly, become variable overnight, and then
return to south/southwest Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  90  73  90 /  20  20  20  40
FSM   74  93  73  91 /  10  40  10  60
MLC   72  90  73  90 /  10  20  10  50
BVO   71  90  71  89 /  30  20  20  40
FYV   71  90  70  87 /  20  40  20  60
BYV   71  90  70  87 /  30  40  20  60
MKO   73  90  72  88 /  10  20  10  50
MIO   72  89  71  88 /  30  40  20  50
F10   72  89  71  88 /  10  20  10  50
HHW   73  91  72  89 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20