Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 192341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection along cold front across southern KS will
spread south this evening into northeast OK and eventuall
northwest AR/southeast OK later tonight. Expect mainly MVFR
conditions...with improving cigs by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Moist and weakly capped airmass remains over the forecast area
this afternoon, and we are beginning to see an increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage across southeast OK, and near
I-35 in north central OK near gradient of deeper moisture. Cold
front stretching from north central KS into northwest OK will be
driven south tonight by potent upper wave moving across the
Dakotas and should arrive in northeast OK in 03z-06z range. Front
will ultimately result in widespread coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across parts of northeast OK late this evening,
spreading south and east overnight. A few strong to severe storms
possible early on, but overall intensity likely to decrease
through the night. High precipitable water values will lead to
some threat of locally heavy rainfall.

Front will linger across southeast OK and parts of western AR
early Saturday, with threat of heavy rainfall lingering at least
early in the day. Cooler and drier air will begin to spread south
during the day behind the front, which will eventually push south
of the Red River by evening. Temperatures will be well below
normal behind the front with lows Sunday morning almost fall-like.
Warmer temps Sunday afternoon will be offset by much lower dew
points.

Upper pattern will transition to more of a southwest flow aloft
as the cold front stalls over north TX this weekend before lifting
back north Sunday night and Monday. Low level moisture return
should result in chances of showers and thunderstorms spreading
back north during this time. The unsettled pattern will continue
much of next week, with possible upticks in precip chances Monday
night/ Tuesday, and again Wednesday night/Thursday with the
arrival of another cold front. Temperatures will be held below
normal in this regime, and threat of locally heavy rainfall will
continue as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  84  61  87 /  80  30  10   0
FSM   74  84  67  87 /  70  70  10   0
MLC   73  84  64  87 /  70  70  10   0
BVO   70  82  55  85 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   71  80  57  82 /  70  60  10   0
BYV   70  80  58  82 /  60  60  10   0
MKO   72  83  60  87 /  80  60  10   0
MIO   70  81  58  84 /  80  30   0   0
F10   71  84  63  87 /  80  50  10   0
HHW   73  82  67  88 /  60  80  40  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18



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