Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181742
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1242 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP MENTION
OUT OF MOST TAF SITES FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. FROM
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...MLC LOOKS TO HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AND WILL
ADD VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FEW TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE COMMON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES POSSIBLE
NEAR THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD TRY TO SCATTER OUT...INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN HAZARD. THUS...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING FOR
TODAY AND ADD MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY AND TEMP GRIDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  98  76  98 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   73  97  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   74  95  74  96 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   71  99  71  99 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   72  93  71  92 /  30  30  10  10
BYV   73  93  74  94 /  30  30  10  10
MKO   72  96  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   72  96  73  97 /  30  30  10  10
F10   72  96  75  96 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   72  97  73  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...20





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