Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 192109
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
409 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HERE WE GO AGAIN. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST..AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA..AS WELL AS MORE
STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER..FORE-TELL
A DARK AND STORMY  (AND WET) NIGHT...FOR EASTERN
OK AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  FLOOD WATCH
POSTED THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

PRECIPITABLE  WATER VALUES IN 1.75-2.00  BALLPARK
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ULTRA EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
EXPECT ONE INCH RAIN AMOUNTS TO BE WIDESPREAD...
LOCAL AREAS TWO TO FOUR FROM LARGER REPEAT STORMS.

FORECAST DERIVED FROM LONG AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
WHICH DIFFER ON HEAVIEST PRECIP PLACEMENT.  SHORT
RANGE FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE LONGER RANGE
FAVOR NORTHERN AREAS.

BULK OF THE PRECIP EXITS STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY AM.

NOT MUCH BREAK FROM RAIN WITH LOW POPS THURSDAY.
HIGHER POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER
RIPPLE ARRIVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOWER LEVEL FLOW. HOLIDAY WEEKEND NOT A
WASH-OUT...BUT FAR FROM DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  64  74  52 /  60 100  30  20
FSM   78  66  79  60 /  10  90  90  40
MLC   77  67  77  58 /  60 100  40  40
BVO   71  57  68  47 /  60 100  30  10
FYV   74  62  71  52 /  10  90  80  20
BYV   73  58  68  49 /  10  80  80  20
MKO   74  64  75  53 /  60 100  40  20
MIO   72  60  67  49 /  10 100  60  20
F10   74  65  75  53 /  60 100  40  20
HHW   79  68  78  61 /  40  80  70  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....21





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.