Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF LOW
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION...DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE COMMON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE FAR WRN CONUS TODAY REMAINS
CUTOFF...AND HAS RESULTED IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN SLOW MOVING AS IT TRAVERSES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AND EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...WARM EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON MAXES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. INITIAL
FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...WILL
LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND
AS A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  86  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   55  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   58  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   60  85  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   59  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20




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