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874
FXUS64 KTSA 162316
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Line of strong to severe storms extends this evening from just
south of Kansas City southwest into northwest Oklahoma along a
cold front. These storms will make slow eastward progress,
eventually affecting the NE Oklahoma terminals by early to mid
evening, and the NW Arkansas terminals after midnight. MVFR
conditions are likely near storms, with gusty winds, and a wind
shift to northwest behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern is potential for both severe weather and
heavy rainfall/flooding this evening and overnight, primarily
across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop perhaps as early as late
afternoon ahead of a cold front that will pass through the region
overnight tonight. A very unstable airmass has developed across
portions of northeast Oklahoma, basically northwest of I-44, where
current mesoanalysis is showing 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Slightly lesser amounts exist across the rest of the forecast
area. Deep layer shear has also increased across northeast
Oklahoma, with values more than sufficient to support supercells
and strong line segments in conjunction with the present
instability. The best chance of severe weather will be across
parts of northeast Oklahoma and maybe far northwest Arkansas
during the evening hours, with storm intensity likely to diminish
upon moving into southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas,
farther from the upper level support. With such high instability,
large hail will be a threat, in addition to damaging wind
potential. Low level shear will be sufficient for a tornado or
two, including within linear structures, although this should not
be the main threat.

The heavy rain and flash flooding potential will also be highest
across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Precipitable
water values continue to increase across this area, with most of
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas seeing at least 2 inch
values. Given the expected storm motions, some cell training could
occur as well. Soils also remain very wet. A Flash Flood Watch has
already been issued for areas north of I-40 from 7 pm tonight
until 7 am tomorrow morning.

Thunderstorm potential will diminish overnight and into tomorrow
from north to south as the front pushes through. Conditions should
be dry by tomorrow evening, although this should be short lived.
Thunderstorm chances will increase once again from the west early
Friday morning and into the day Friday as a fairly fast moving
upper level wave passes through the region.

Things may dry out some this weekend, as only low thunderstorm
chances will exist and temperatures will climb to near normal
values due to upper ridging aloft. This will persist into early
next week. Northwest flow is expected to return by the middle of
next week, with another front and increased thunderstorm chances
by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  92  70  89 /  80  10  20  30
FSM   76  90  72  90 /  70  40  10  40
MLC   76  91  73  90 /  70  30  20  30
BVO   68  90  65  89 /  80  10  20  30
FYV   72  86  64  85 /  70  30  10  40
BYV   72  87  64  89 /  70  30  10  30
MKO   72  90  70  88 /  70  20  20  40
MIO   69  87  65  88 /  80  10  10  30
F10   72  90  71  90 /  70  10  20  30
HHW   77  91  74  91 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI