Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 272122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Two distinct upper level features within a larger scale western
U.S. trough apparent on water vapor imagery. First, a closed low
currently lifting across the central/northern plains, the tail end
of which has aided in development of band of light rain and even a
few embedded storms moving across eastern OK and into western AR.
Second, a compact system located near KLVS this afternoon which
is expected to rotate through base of trough into southern plains
later tonight. Moist air in the lower levels continues to surge
north in response to the upper pattern.

Initial band of rain should mostly shift east of the area by
evening but the higher res short term models have been consistent
in the idea of developing elevated storms across northern
OK/southern KS later this evening in addition to more widespread
activity within warm conveyor ahead of southern short wave. This
adds up to relatively high POPs for tonight, with heaviest
rainfall amounts likely across far southeast OK and into western
AR late tonight through Monday morning. Severe weather potential
will exist through tonight given the very strong deep layer shear
in any location where instability can be maximized, however it
does appear most updrafts will stay rooted well above the surface.

Pacific front will sweep through Monday with rapid clearing from
the west and downslope flow in the lower levels allowing several
degrees of warming in most areas. Wind speeds likely to
overachieve given the deep mixing anticipated and forecast sides
with stronger raw model output, in the 15-25 mph range. Will need
to watch dew points during the day as they could mix lower than
forecast, making fire weather a greater concern for Monday.

Modest cold advection will continue for a couple of days with
temperatures trending closer to normal for the middle part of the
week. Final piece of shortwave energy lifting northeast across
Texas Tue/Wed likely to remain a little too far south for any
precip into our area.

Still many more questions than answers regarding potential weekend
system as models struggle with evolution of next upper low moving
ashore...GFS/ECMWF have essentially flip-flopped from yesterday.
Low-end chance of rain will be maintained mainly across southern
areas for the weekend, with thermal profile suggesting very little
if any winter weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  66  41  62 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   55  69  42  68 /  80  70   0  10
MLC   58  69  42  65 /  70  40   0  10
BVO   55  65  35  61 /  60  10   0   0
FYV   53  64  40  62 /  70  60   0  10
BYV   51  64  44  63 /  60  60  10  10
MKO   56  67  40  64 /  70  30   0   0
MIO   56  65  39  61 /  60  30   0   0
F10   57  67  41  63 /  60  20   0   0
HHW   59  70  44  68 /  90  70   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....14



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