National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 031106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
506 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

LIGHT SNOW COULD PERSIST THROUGH 13Z AT XNA...WITH MVFR
VSBYS...BUT OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VFR CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY...BECOMING VERY LIGHT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT AND COMPACT PV MAX IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD...ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF AN ENE TO WSW ORIENTED 700MB TROUGH AXIS. A BAND OF
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS BACK INTO NORTHEAST OK IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PV MAX...BUT THIS IS
QUICKLY WANING AS THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS THRU IN ITS WAKE.
WITH THE SNOW ENDING BY MORNING...THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT IN
TACT AS CRITERIA IS BEING MET AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE SUN WILL
SHINE TODAY AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE
ARCTIC RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...HIGHS WILL STAY WELL BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WEAKENS AND RETREATS QUICKLY EASTWARD
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT WILL MORE OR LESS
CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A BRIEF PAUSE MIDWEEK. A
LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER NOAM
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A COUPLE UPPER WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS IN
SUGGESTING THAT THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A LOW
QPF EVENT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT THERMAL PROFILES THRU THE LOWEST 5-6KFT DO NOT LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP GIVEN LACK OF COLD AIR. WET BULB
TEMPS IN MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE ZERO THRU THE
ENTIRE LAYER. I HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY...THEN
JUST RAIN AFTERWARD...WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
CONCOMITANT FRONT...THUS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW. HAVE
ELECTED TO KEEP JUST PLAIN RAIN IN THE GRIDS. AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF
COOL DOWN SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TO START THE
NEXT WORK WEEK WITH NICE WEATHER.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
