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000
FXUS64 KTSA 150012
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
712 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Current observational and short term model trends support the
going forecast. Looking aloft, a potent PV max over northeast CO
was located in the basal portion of a progressive shortwave trough
moving across the Plains tonight. High pressure building east into
the Plains in the wake of the system is forcing a strong cold
front in our direction. At 7 PM, the cold front stretched from far
NW OK across southern KS just to the south of Wichita and then up
into west central MO. The front should enter northeast OK within
the next couple hours. Thus far, the bulk of the storm activity in
KS has been in the subtropical moist plume ahead of the front.
Over the past half hour more storms have begun to develop just
behind the front and this trend should continue as it drops down
into Oklahoma. The best shot for severe winds will be with the
initial storms to the north and west of Tulsa. Decreasing
instability and the elevated nature of the storms suggest that the
severe potential will wane with time as the front continues
south.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Southward surging cold front located near a KICT- KGUY line at
this time. Front will move through ern OK/nwrn AR tonight.
Aviation impacts will accompany frontal passage at all sites, as
several hours of lightning and MVFR ceilings are expected.
Additionally, nern OK sites may experience convective wind gusts
35-40 kts for a couple hours after frontal passage. Gradual
clearing trend from nw to se after 09z as front pushes into nern
TX and central AR. Gusty northerly wind all sites on Sunday as
high pressure builds into the Srn Plains.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A line of convection lifting northeast remained ongoing this
afternoon from Northwest Oklahoma through Eastern Kansas and into
Northern Missouri ahead of cold front located from Southwest
Kansas through Northeast Missouri slowly pushing east southeast.
Ahead of the front and line of convection...above seasonal
average temperatures along with gusty southerly winds were common
across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

The cold front is expected to continue to pick up speed through
the evening/overnight hours as an upper level shortwave pushes
into/across the Plains and a dome of high pressure over the Gulf
Coast States shifts eastward. In response...the cold front is
expected to enter Northeast Oklahoma around 00z this evening and
quickly move southeast reaching a line near Okfuskee county to
Benton county around 06z tonight and exiting the CWA by 12z
Sunday. The result will be...ongoing convection along with
additional thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary are
expected to move into the CWA this evening and then quickly
spread over the CWA tonight.

A small severe potential window looks to be possible this evening
mainly northwest of Interstate 44 during the 00z-04z timeframe before
convection begins to become more elevated with the speed of the
cold front undercutting the storms. Instability ahead of the
front along with shear values nearly parallel to the front will
allow for locally damaging winds to be the main threat...though a
small hail threat could be possible. As the front continues to
move through the CWA tonight...the severe potential is expected to
weaken with time and eastward movement overnight.

Behind the frontal boundary...showers with decreasing lightning
potential will be possible along with gusty northerly winds in the
30 to 40+ mph range. By early morning Sunday...majority of the
lightning potential looks to be exiting the CWA with rain showers
remaining possible over parts of Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas into the mid/late morning hours Sunday. During the day
Sunday...breezy northerly winds should continue as the upper level
shortwave trof axis departs off to the east Sunday afternoon. Also
Sunday...a much cooler airmass with temperatures around 20+
degrees cooler compared to today are forecast across the region.

The cool airmass is forecast to remain common into Monday as
surface high pressure resides over the Southern Plains. Center of
the high pressure shifts east of the CWA Tuesday allowing for a
return of southerly winds and a slow warming trend through the end
of the work week. By the end of the week...temperatures back in
the 70s/low 80s could be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  66  41  70 /  90  10   0   0
FSM   61  68  45  72 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   55  66  41  69 /  90  20   0   0
BVO   50  65  36  68 /  90  10   0   0
FYV   53  62  36  67 /  90  20   0   0
BYV   52  63  40  67 /  90  30   0   0
MKO   54  65  42  69 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   52  63  38  67 /  90  10   0   0
F10   54  65  43  68 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   59  69  45  72 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30