Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 151119
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Light precipitation has shifted east this morning as secondary
surge of drier air pushes into SE OK/NW AR. Temperatures will be
near or slightly above normal today/tonight as surface ridge moves
through. Slow warm-up expected Thursday and Friday ahead of upper
low approaching from the southwest. Gusty, warm/dry winds will
create a limited fire danger threat both afternoons as 1 hour
fuels/grasses quickly dry out. A few isolated showers will be
possible across SE OK/NW AR Friday night into Saturday as upper
low lifts into Arkansas. Any precipitation that develops will be
light at best.

Unseasonably warm conditions expected on Sunday as upper ridge quickly
builds over the southern plains. Rain chances will begin to increase
Sunday night into Monday as highly amplified upper trough shifts
eastward over Mexico. With the southern track of system, thunderstorm
coverage should remain fairly limited given the lack of overall
instability. Main upper low moves east across south Texas into
Louisiana Monday into Tuesday with low precipitation chances
continuing, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas. Heavier rain threat will likely remain south of area
with the stronger forcing/instability. The mild weather will
persist through the early to middle part of next week as upper low
continues a slow eastward progression and as a weak ridge aloft
builds into the region from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  35  68  43 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   56  32  66  37 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   56  31  65  45 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   57  26  69  37 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   52  26  63  36 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   51  32  63  43 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   55  32  66  40 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   54  31  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
F10   55  32  67  43 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   58  33  64  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10



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