Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 292344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Cold front currently moving through SE OK/NW AR with NW winds
behind front across NE OK. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
will persist overnight becoming gusty across the entire area
by mid morning Wednesday as stronger mixing develops. VFR
conditions are expected through the forecast period with only
scattered mid/high clouds.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

Broad upper level trough remains over the central U.S. and will
slowly migrate east over the next couple of days with more or less
zonal flow over our region. Cold front currently passing through
northeast OK and shifting wind out of the northwest should lead to
a bit cooler temps tonight in most locations along with several
degree drop in high temps for Wednesday. There will be some
increase in fire danger for Wed afternoon despite cooler temps as
wind speeds pick up and very dry air remains in place. Otherwise
the weather should remain quiet through Friday.

Medium range models have converged on a solution for the next
upper low that dives south through the western U.S. and cuts off
over northern Mexico, eventually ejecting northeast into the
southern states by early next week. Warm advection regime likely
to bring a period of light precip, perhaps as early as late
afternoon Friday, but more likely Friday night and Saturday, with
thermal profiles suggesting all liquid. This pattern also implies
a lack of meaningful cold air throughout the event, and thus there
will be no mention of winter weather in this forecast. At this
point the highest rain chances appear to be Saturday and again
Monday, with a bit of break in between warm advection precip and
passage of upper low.

Next Tuesday for now appears mild and dry ahead of a much
stronger cold front which will likely bring the coldest temps we
have seen in some time by late next week.




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