National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 152010
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER SET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
INITIALLY...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE CONCERN
WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTERACTING WITH A FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN MAKING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE CONCERN.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ON SUNDAY WILL TEMPERATURES FALLING OR
REMAINING STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER BIG
STORY ON SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CALMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MOVE THOUGH THE AREA DRY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  45  27  59 / 100  70  10   0
FSM   52  54  28  57 / 100  70  20   0
MLC   45  47  26  59 /  90  60  10   0
BVO   40  41  22  60 / 100  60  10   0
FYV   44  44  21  56 / 100  80  20   0
BYV   43  45  21  54 / 100  90  20   0
MKO   44  49  26  57 / 100  70  10   0
MIO   38  42  22  57 / 100  80  10   0
F10   44  45  27  59 /  90  60  10   0
HHW   50  53  29  58 /  90  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
