Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 190053
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SOME SLIGHT TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPS WERE MADE TONIGHT. SEE DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW CLOUD BLANKET WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR EVEN
SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ENOUGH TO REALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...THUS
CURRENT DEWPOINTS MAY BE THE BOTTOM LIMIT ON TEMPS TONIGHT IN MOST
AREAS. USING INPUT FROM THE LATEST HRRR...OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
TWEAKED UPWARD JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH THE LARGEST CHANGE
OVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE LATEST DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE 00Z
DATA...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LIFR TO IFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE SOME FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY LIFTING BACK
TO MVFR WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. HIGHEST QPF SIGNALS REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING THEME OF KEEPING HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. A LITTLE FASTER
OF THE SYSTEM PER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A QUICKER END TO
PRECIP ON FRIDAY EVENING...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MENTION OF
MIXED PRECIP WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS. NEXT QUICK MOVING TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY..AND WILL
OFFER AT BEST LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
A STRONGER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POISED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE XMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  44  34  50 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   40  46  36  49 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   39  46  37  51 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   35  42  32  49 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   38  43  34  46 /  10  20  20  10
BYV   37  41  34  45 /  10  20  20  10
MKO   39  44  35  50 /  10  20  10  10
MIO   37  42  32  48 /  10  10  10   0
F10   39  44  36  51 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   43  48  39  52 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30




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