Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 202244
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light northerly
winds will shift to easterly and finally southerly tomorrow
afternoon at the NE OK terminals, with the other terminals
maintaining a northerly component through the period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016/
An upper level shortwave continued to push east southeast through
the Central Plains and into the Southern Plains this afternoon.
The Center of the vort max was positioned over Southeast
Kansas...Southwest Missouri...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. In response...scattered cloud cover remained common over
much of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon with
breezy northerly winds. Any light rain showers associated with the
wave had remained in Missouri and should continue to do so before
dissipating this evening.
Overnight tonight...the wave exits off to the east southeast with
surface high pressure filtering into the CWA. Cold air advection
underneath the surface high will aid in mostly clear skies tonight
with light northerly winds. These conditions will allow for
maximum radiational cooling with low temps in the upper 30s far
Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas to the low/mid 40s
elsewhere possible by Friday morning. Within the cold spots of
low lying areas/valley areas...perhaps the potential for some
patchy very light frost may be possible with the light winds. For
now though will let the evening shifts re-evaluate for this
potential before inserting a mention into the grids.
Surface high pressure and upper level northwesterly flow remain
over the region for Friday with high temperatures again in the
60s/low 70s possible. Conditions then begin to change over the
weekend as surface high exits and an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over the Central CONUS. Thus...southerly winds
return to the CWA with a warming trend with possible highs back
in the 80s continuing into the early part of next week. By the
middle part of next week latest model solutions are indicating the
ridge flatting out and a shortwave moving into the Plains within a
more zonal type flow. This wave could push a surface boundary to
just north of the CWA with possible chances for showers and
thunderstorms at the end of this forecast package for the CWA.
For now will add slight chance pops for Tuesday night/Wednesday.