Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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749
FXUS64 KTSA 231124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/LIFR cigs to prevail through the period at all sites, along with
MVFR/IFR vsbys in fog and RA/TSRA that will increase in areal
coverage through the morning and afternoon. Brief improvement to
MVFR cigs are possible outside of rain and thunder areas.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The shallow cold airmass across the area continues to be very slow
to erode from east to west, and this will continue to be the case
through Saturday morning. Another area of rain and isolated
thunderstorms is spreading back north into far southeast Oklahoma
at this time, and this trend will continue, with widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms expected area wide by later
this afternoon into this evening.

Rain coverage will diminish some from the west later this evening
and overnight, but with the approach of the main upper level
system Saturday morning, widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will once again develop during the morning hours
before ending during the afternoon as a Pacific cold front sweeps
across the area. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible Saturday, with hail being the main threat as the storms
will mostly remain elevated. Far southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas may be close enough to the true warm sector for
storms to be rooted closer to the boundary layer, and if so, a
greater severe weather risk may develop in this area. We believe
the GFS is way overdone with the deepening surface cyclone given
the shallow cold airmass remaining stubborn, and the much weaker
solutions from most other models are preferred. As a result, wind
speeds will remain more modest Saturday afternoon. The shift to a
more westerly component will finally scour out the shallow cold
air however.

With the shallow cold airmass finally gone, temperatures will warm
nicely Sunday through much of next week. Another storm system will
bring shower and thunderstorm chances around midweek, but overall
warmer and quieter weather will prevail next week compared to what
we have seen the past few days.

Went on the colder side of guidance for high temperatures today
and Saturday with the shallow cold air remaining stubborn.
Guidance lows look reasonable the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-075-076.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ020-029.

&&

$$


AVIATION.....23



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