


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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655 FXUS64 KTSA 112325 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Isolated showers and storms possible northwest of Interstate 44 this afternoon. Heat index values from the upper 90s to near 105 expected this afternoon. - Thunderstorm chances increase after midnight across NE OK, with potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding. - Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms persist this weekend with continued potential for locally heavy rainfall. - An active weather regime continues into next week with daily thunderstorm chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A shortwave trough is sliding across Nebraska and Kansas today, with a surface low centered near St Joseph, MO. A weak cool front trails back to the southwest and will make a run at us today, but likely come up short. Isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop on that front by this afternoon across south-central KS/north-central and NW OK and some of this activity could impact portions of NE OK into early evening, mainly to the north and west of Tulsa. An isolated/marginal severe wind threat and locally heavy rain threat exists. A reinforcing frontal push will force the synoptic boundary down to around the KS border by Saturday morning, where it will stall. Ahead of the boundary, moisture pooling will increase PWATs to approach 2" and the majority of ensemble and CAM data suggests that storms will develop across NE OK after midnight in this area. Weak westerly deep layer flow suggests storms will be slow- moving and could train as well. The 12Z HREF indicates potential for isolated 4" amounts. After coordination with surrounding offices, we`ve elected to issue a Flood Watch for much of NE OK from midnight to 18Z Saturday. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Some southward shift in the convective band into Saturday morning is possible while coverage trends lower, at least briefly. Per latest CAMs, and uptick in storm coverage is expected into the afternoon possibly due to an approaching convective vort max/MCV emanating from convection off the High Plains. There could also be renewed development near the synoptic front in the vicinity of the KS border. Used CONShort for PoP forecast guidance Saturday afternoon and evening which reflected this better. With high PWAT air now in place over the region, pockets of locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flooding are possible, as well as an isolated wet downburst. If/when locations of the heavy rainfall become more evident, the Flood Watch can be extended/expanded to cover the threat. High rain/storm chances continue into Sunday and Monday before they tail off a bit into next week. Models differ on the timing of the next front later on next week, but have trended less aggressive with its southward push. Nevertheless, some increase in rain/storm chances will occur in the vicinity of the front before ensemble guidance suggests mid-level ridging will take hold by next weekend. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Generally, VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any thunderstorms that impact TAF sites. A frontal boundary will bring increasing chances for scattered storms beginning later this evening and overnight continuing at times through the day tomorrow. Differences still exist in pinning down the most likely timing and placement of storms, so have covered periods with prob30 and some tempo groups for most likely timeframe. Outside of storms mid and high level cloud cover will be prevalent, with gusty winds this evening becoming calmer overnight and through the rest of the period tomorrow. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 74 87 72 85 / 40 70 50 60 FSM 77 91 74 88 / 10 30 30 60 MLC 75 88 71 86 / 10 50 50 70 BVO 71 87 69 85 / 50 60 40 50 FYV 72 87 69 85 / 20 50 40 70 BYV 72 88 69 85 / 20 50 30 70 MKO 74 86 70 84 / 20 60 50 70 MIO 72 86 69 82 / 60 70 40 60 F10 73 86 70 83 / 20 60 50 70 HHW 74 90 72 89 / 10 30 40 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday afternoon for OKZ054>064. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...04