Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 232018
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
218 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns for a couple of days continue to highlight
the forecast for the next seven days. Surface high pressure has
pushed south and east of the forecast area today, with warmer
temperatures returning quickly in response. Dew point temperatures
have not recovered quite as rapidly, and the degree of tomorrow`s
fire weather concerns will hinge on how much moisture return
occurs overnight and into early tomorrow. Southerly winds will
gust to 25 mph, especially along and north of I-44, and
temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. Conditions
will be near Red Flag criteria.

A weak, dry cold front will pass through the region Friday night
and into Saturday. Temperatures behind the front will continue to
be several degrees above normal both Saturday and Sunday. The more
significant fire weather day, especially from a spread
standpoint, remains Monday, as winds are likely to gust to 35 mph
and well above normal afternoon temperatures result in minimum
humidities from 35 to 40 percent.

A strong storm system toward the middle of next week remains our
only hope for any precipitation. Medium range models are still
struggling with the timing of the system, and as such, will go
with rather broad brushed POPs. Expect POPs to increase some once
the timing is better nailed down.

Cooler air will follow this system with temperatures nearer to
normal to close out next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  72  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  71  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   41  73  46  68 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  73  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   38  67  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   40  67  45  63 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  71  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   43  68  43  63 /   0   0   0   0
F10   43  73  47  65 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  71  45  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22


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