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000
FXUS64 KTSA 311101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST... CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN
EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING PAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS
GONE AS WELL BEFORE PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TURSDAY. RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX.

A RAPID AND LONGER LASTING WARMUP WILL ENSUE BY NEXT FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THAT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
CLIMBING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06