Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 162050
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO POINTS FURTHER EAST. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS ATOP THE RETREATING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MORNING CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NE
OK / WESTERN AR AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTERACT
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANY REMAINING MORNING
CLOUDINESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELL TO
SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE INITIAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING W/ A CONTINUED RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER SUNSET HOWEVER THE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE AS THE
WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM DECAYING ODILE...THOUGH THE EXTENDED MODEL DATA
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE FOR A CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN HOW THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS HANDLED. THE LATEST DATA HAVE WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH ALLOWS THE TROPICAL INFLUENCE TO LINGER NEAR THE REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO A POINT OF FOCUS IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  92  69  86 /  10  10  20  30
FSM   67  89  69  85 /  20  20  30  40
MLC   68  89  70  86 /  10  10  10  30
BVO   65  92  67  85 /  10  10  30  30
FYV   64  85  65  81 /  10  40  50  40
BYV   63  84  63  78 /  20  60  50  40
MKO   67  89  69  84 /  10  10  20  30
MIO   65  88  66  83 /  20  60  50  40
F10   69  90  69  85 /  10  10  20  30
HHW   69  89  71  86 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




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