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000
FXUS64 KTSA 012107
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT FOG FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SLOWLY RISEN TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DECENT WARM
UP EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVER-
RUNNING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VERY STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING/LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION COULD
INITIALLY BE MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE...THEN SNOW...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIER ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE ACROSS SE OK/NW AR...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  WE SHOULD ALSO
SEE MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 NEXT SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  40  38  56 /  10  10  40  50
FSM   32  42  37  57 /  10  20  40  70
MLC   26  43  40  61 /  10  20  40  60
BVO   20  40  37  54 /  10  10  40  50
FYV   24  42  38  57 /  10  10  40  70
BYV   23  39  37  56 /  10  10  40  70
MKO   23  41  37  57 /  10  10  40  60
MIO   22  40  37  53 /  10  10  40  60
F10   23  40  38  59 /  10  10  40  50
HHW   34  45  40  61 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12