Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 050448
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low clouds have spread into Northwest Arkansas late this evening.
The low clouds/patchy fog will likely continue over aforementioned
area through the overnight hours with MVFR conditions likely.
Ceiling heights will start to increase/scatter out by mid
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
Rapid update 11u-3.9u satellite shows sc cloud
backing into northwest Arkansas after sunset.
Trend will continue overnight. Increased cloud
northwest AR and east central and northeast OK
overnight and raised min temps a couple or few
degrees for that same area.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
Another nice autumn day out there this afternoon as ridging
prevails aloft and at the surface. Clouds will be on the increase
over the next 24 hours...from the west at higher levels...and
from the east at the lower levels. Overnight lows should be milder
tonight as a result. A warming trend ensues starting tomorrow and
continuing thru the middle of the week as the surface ridge
weakens and shifts east. Cloud cover may temper that warm up some on
Monday however...as the previous shift noted. Clouds should not be
as big an issue Tues and Wed...allowing highs to climb into the
We should stay dry with ridging aloft thru midweek. Chances for
rain/storms increase Thursday...with the best chances Thursday
night into Friday with a cold front. The front is in association
with a fast moving shortwave trough in the northern stream of the
westerlies over the central CONUS. The data today is more
aggressive in digging this energy down into the mid-Mississippi
and Tennessee valleys...which would suggest that the front will
get a good push through our area by the weekend. The main
uncertainty lies with the southern stream closed low. The ECMWF
continues to suggest that it will not be a big player in our
weather here...keeping the system cut off and retrograding back
toward the Baja. The GFS eventually opens the system up and ejects
it across TX...which would bring some rain to our southern areas.
Given the uncertainty...I elected to stay below consensus pops
Fri night and Saturday. The latter part of next weekend into early
next week looks dry for now.