Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251738
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Increasing mid/high level clouds are expected to spread across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this afternoon and tonight
as a frontal boundary approaches the CWA. This boundary is
forecast to move into Northeast Oklahoma after 06z and remain in
the area through the end of the TAF period. Scattered showers and
or thunderstorms will be possible along/near the front and will
continue VCSH/-RA for Northeast Oklahoma TAF sites tonight into
Tuesday. From ongoing observations...periods of MVFR ceilings may
be possible behind the front Tuesday morning. Greater potential
for this looks to be at BVO. Across Southeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas...scattered/broken mid and high clouds along
with southerly winds look to continue Tuesday south of the front.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1024 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A slow moving frontal boundary remained positioned from Southeast
New Mexico through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and into
Northeast Kansas mid morning today. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms were ongoing both ahead and behind this
boundary...lifting north northeast within the mean flow. Across
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...scattered high clouds to
mostly clear skies were common.

Through this afternoon...cloud cover is expected to increase
across the CWA as the frontal boundary continues to slowly make
its way eastward. With the slow movement of the front...most of
the showers and thunderstorms should remain west of the CWA during
the day today. The greater potential of this activity moving into
the region looks to be west of Highway 75 across Osage/Pawnee
counties late this afternoon and later. Have adjusted the timing
of mentionable pops starting at 21z for these locations.

There also remains an isolated potential of an isolated shower
and/or thunderstorm developing within the daytime heating across
the CWA. However...with limited coverage will keep much of the CWA
just below mentionable pops through the afternoon hours. Limited
instability and weak lapse rates should help to limit severe
potentials.

With the increasing cloud cover...afternoon temperatures look to
be a couple degrees cooler across much of the region though still
remaining on the warm and humid side of the front. Thus...for the
morning update...have added only minor tweaks to hourly
temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids. The rest of the forecast seems to be
handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  80  62 /  10  20  50  50
FSM   91  68  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
MLC   90  68  87  66 /  10   0  20  20
BVO   89  65  79  59 /  10  30  60  60
FYV   87  63  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   88  64  87  63 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   89  67  85  64 /  10  10  20  20
MIO   88  66  83  61 /  10  10  40  40
F10   88  68  83  63 /  10  10  40  30
HHW   90  68  89  69 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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