Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 202239
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
439 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon a longwave trof axis remained over the Western
CONUS with a ridge of High pressure located over the Gulf Coast
States. Between these two features...southwesterly flow continues
to transport moisture across the Southern Plains and over the top
of a strong cold front positioned from West Texas through South
Central and Eastern Oklahoma to far Northwest Arkansas and
extended through Central and Eastern Missouri. This had allowed
for widespread rain showers with isolated to scattered embedded
thunder to develop along and ahead of the front. Behind the
front...a much colder shallow airmass was pushing into region. In
response...areas of light freezing rain and light sleet had
developed across parts of Central Oklahoma through Northeast
Oklahoma and into Southeast Kansas and Missouri. The freezing line
across the CWA was located from Bristow to the Tulsa metro to
near Vinita.

Through tonight...rain showers with isolated thunder will continue
to move east and northeast across Southeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas. Instability ahead of the front could create
a limited potential of a strong to marginally severe storm with
locally strong winds being the main threat. Organized severe
weather is not anticipated. Precipitable water values greater than
1 inch along with the abundant moisture will allow for rainfall
amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range with parts of Southeast Oklahoma
into Northwest Arkansas in the 2 to 4 inch range. Thus...will
continue the flash flood watch for these locations.

At the same time...the cold shallow air will continue to spread
southeast with the front through the CWA. Thus...areas of freezing
rain with some possible light sleet should continue to shift
eastward tonight. Have extended the winter weather advisory for
parts of Northeast Oklahoma until 03z with an additional advisory
for the rest of Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas
and also parts of Southeast Oklahoma 03-12z Wed. Ice
accumulations up toward a tenth of an inch with minor amounts of
sleet will be possible. Breezy northerly winds overnight combined
with the potential ice accumulations could create some patchy
areas of power outages.

The cold air mass remains in place Wednesday with additional
precip chances across Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
lifting back over Northeast Oklahoma as the overall synoptic
pattern remains in place with the cold front southeast of the CWA.
This will allow for areas of light freezing drizzle and or light
freezing rain to remain possible across mainly far Northwest
Arkansas Wednesday morning and then across far Northwest Arkansas
and Northeast Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon. An additional winter
weather advisory maybe needed for Wednesday. High temps Wednesday
look to only warm into the low/mid 30s to lower 40s from north to
south.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again across the CWA
Thursday through Saturday as a wave finally kicks out of the
Southwestern U.S. and across the Plains Saturday. A return of southerly
mid level winds will help to keep temperatures above freezing with
this next system and continue to transport moisture into the
region. Thus...periods of heavy rainfall again could be possible
Friday and Saturday. With this additional rainfall forecast on top
of ongoing precip...could create flash flooding and also river
flooding conditions to be possible. Precipitation looks to exit
the region region by Sunday with the CWA trying to dry out for the
start of the next work week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  34  32  47 /  40  20  60  60
FSM   40  42  39  52 / 100  60  50  60
MLC   32  37  34  49 /  90  60  50  60
BVO   23  34  29  43 /  10  20  70  60
FYV   32  37  35  52 / 100  40  40  50
BYV   33  35  34  51 / 100  40  40  40
MKO   31  36  35  50 /  80  40  40  60
MIO   25  35  32  49 /  60  20  50  50
F10   30  34  33  46 /  70  40  50  60
HHW   38  43  39  52 / 100  90  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-058-062-063-
     067>076.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for OKZ063-068>071-073.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     OKZ054>057-059>061-064>066.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for OKZ058-062-
     067.

AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20


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