Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR TAF elements will prevail through the entire period at
all sites. Sfc wind gusts to increase from the SW after
15z-16 between 20-25 kts. Will include WS remark at KFSM
after 06z as a light nocturnal easterly drainage wind is expected.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 242 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Very high fire danger expected this afternoon across northeast
Oklahoma with conditions approaching red flag along and north of
I-44 corridor. Gusty southwest winds at 30-35 mph are expected
across aforementioned area with minimum relative humidity values
falling to around 30 percent. Given the already very dry conditions
and fuel loads, any fires that develop could quickly spread out
of control. Although red flag criteria is not currently forecast
to be met, this will continue to be closely monitored through the
day.

Next cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma Tuesday morning,
sweeping south into the ARKLATX region by early evening. Although
the fire danger is not expected to be as high compared to today,
gusty north winds and a dry airmass behind the front will again
create an elevated fire danger threat. Cooler weather expected
on Wednesday as surface ridge axis moves into the area with highs
only in the upper 40s NW AR to upper 50s far SE OK.

Upper high currently off the Baja coast will begin to shift east
into the desert southwest Thursday into Friday with unseasonably
warm/dry conditions. Another dry cold front will move through
Saturday with temperatures back to around normal by Sunday. Drought
conditions will continue to worsen with no real chance for precipitation
expected through at least the early to middle part of next week.
Therefore, fire weather will likely remain a significant concern
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23



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