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000
FXUS64 KTSA 311748
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE PRECIP SHIELD IN THE WARM CONVEYOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THROUGH MIDDAY. ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...PICKING UP
PACE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST. THUS...PRECIP
WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TONIGHT. THE WARM LOW LEVELS WILL INSURE THAT THIS
PRECIP EVENT WILL BE JUST A WET ONE...THOUGH SOME SLEET WAS
OBSERVED WITH THE LIGHT INITIAL ACTIVITY DUE TO WET-BULBING IN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. WILL MAKE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
AFTERNOON POPS BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...WHICH
LINE UP VERY WELL WITH THE OBSERVATIONS SO FAR. FOR DETAILS
REGARDING THE AVIATION FORECAST...SEE THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW...

LACY

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART DURING THE DAY
TODAY...THEN EXPECT GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT THE TAF
SITES...ERN OK SITES SOONER...NW AR SITES LATER IN THE FCST PD.
WHEN THE HEAVIER RAINS SPREAD OVER TONIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS WILL
LIKELY DROP DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AT SOME SITES BY EARLY
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF
THE FCST...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS LIGHT RAINFALL MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST... CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING RAIN FROM REACHING THE
GROUND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF ANY RAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SLOWLY SATURATES. THE MAIN RAIN
EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE LAGGING BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING PAST MIDDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR ANY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS
GONE AS WELL BEFORE PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG MAKING FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...A QUICK BUT BRIEF WARMUP WILL TAKE
PLACE TURSDAY. RAPIDLY WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 60 DEGREES IN MANY PLACES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX.

A RAPID AND LONGER LASTING WARMUP WILL ENSUE BY NEXT FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THAT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
CLIMBING BACK TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  42  46  17 /  70 100  30   0
FSM   54  43  49  22 /  20 100  60  10
MLC   52  45  49  20 /  40 100  40  10
BVO   46  40  44  14 /  80 100  30  10
FYV   51  41  46  17 /  30 100  50  10
BYV   50  40  46  17 /  20 100  60  10
MKO   51  43  48  18 /  40 100  40  10
MIO   49  40  45  15 /  50 100  50  10
F10   50  43  47  18 /  50 100  30  10
HHW   55  45  53  23 /  20 100  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30