Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 060249
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016
Southern stream trough currently skirting just to the south of
Oklahoma in Texas...beginning take a more northeasterly track into
northern Louisiana and Arkansas before moving off to the east in
the general flow. Light to moderate rain has been ongoing this
evening across portions of southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. This activity will continue to northeastward, gradually
diminishing by early Tuesday morning. The area may see some patchy
fog develop after midnight, but widespread dense fog is not
expected. Surface cold front associated with northern stream
trough has currently moved into northwest Kansas and will move
into the local area by mid to late morning. Have made minor
updates to pop grids to account for timing and coverage trends...
otherwise, the overall forecast still on track.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 501 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/
The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Complex aviation forecast tonight. Periods of low cigs and
possibly low vsbys as well can be expected tonight at the TAF
sites. An upper storm system lifting northeast over the region
will bring rain mainly to KFSM tonight. A cold front will push
into the region from northwest to southeast on Tuesday in the wake
of the exiting system, finally bringing a return to VFR conditions
to all sites by afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/
Upper low currently across south central Texas will continue
lifting northeast and weaken as it moves through southern Arkansas
overnight. Rain chances associated with this feature will mostly
be confined to southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas tonight.
Attention turns to the arctic airmass that will impact the region
by midweek. Initial push of cooler air will move into the area
overnight...with the main surge to enter northeast Oklahoma
Wednesday afternoon. Moisture profiles suggest limited chances for
any accumulating precip associated with the broad upper trough
that will pass Wednesday and Wednesday night. Have cut down on qpf
and snow totals from previous forecast...and will have the best
chance for snow across far northeast OK and northwest AR. Once
this airmass settles over the plains...very cold temperatures that
have not been seen in quite sometime can be expected
Thursday...and especially Friday morning where widespread
overnight low temperatures in the teens are expected. Airmass
loses its grip over the plains for the start of the weekend...and
a quick warm-up will ensue. Precip chances will increase some for
the last half of the weekend across southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas as moisture increases ahead of the next system.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 37 46 33 38 / 10 0 10 20
FSM 41 51 36 44 / 80 0 10 20
MLC 40 50 36 44 / 40 0 10 10
BVO 34 46 27 37 / 10 0 10 30
FYV 39 46 28 36 / 40 0 10 20
BYV 38 46 29 36 / 50 0 10 30
MKO 38 46 33 40 / 30 0 10 20
MIO 35 44 28 37 / 10 0 10 30
F10 38 47 34 40 / 20 0 10 10
HHW 42 53 40 47 / 70 10 10 10