Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy fog and IFR ceilings will periodically impact a few sites
through mid morning. Additionally light showers and isolated
thunderstorms will spread into NE OK this morning with dissipation
likely by late morning. Thereafter VFR to high MVFR ceilings are
expected into tonight. Storm chances increase across NE OK and far
NW AR late evening into the early morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
August continues to remain a forecast challenge, at least through
early next week, as several more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms appear likely. In the short term, several
thunderstorm complexes are traversing the OK/TX Panhandles with
another complex moving across central KS early this morning. Hi-
resolution, short-term guidance suggests these storms will weaken
as they travel eastward into a less favorable environment. The
weakened storms will approach the western edge to the CWA over the
next several hours, but are expected to continue to weaken this
morning and attention then turns towards this afternoon and
evening.

A stationary front currently resides from Pawnee County northeastward
to Ottawa County, and then along southern Missouri. Could
possibly see a bit of development along this boundary by early
afternoon as it begins to move northward as a warm front. Another
vigorous wave dropping into the Northern Plains will force a cold
front south across the Plains late today and this evening.
Thunderstorms look to develop along portions of this front by
evening, and will drop south through the evening and overnight
period. Early on, organized severe weather is likely over portions
of KS/OK/MO with hail and wind the primary threat. As the evening
progresses, the threat will change over to heavy rain. However,
given differences in model output, it is still difficult to nail
down too many specifics.

Showers and thunderstorms could hang around into Saturday morning,
but overall, Saturday looks to be much quieter. Scattered storms
return Sunday, with limited storm chances continuing into the
upcoming work week. Upper air pattern will become more zonal this
weekend allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 90s.
Recent heavy rain events and efficient evapotranspiration, in
addition to strong warm air advection, will have heat indices
climbing into the 100 to 105 range this weekend for much of
eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Overall pattern will
remain relatively active with another front approaching the region
Tues/Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  93  75 /  30  40  10  10
FSM   92  74  94  75 /  20  30  20  10
MLC   91  74  95  74 /  20  30  20  10
BVO   91  71  93  71 /  40  40  10  10
FYV   87  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  10
BYV   89  71  90  70 /  20  40  20  10
MKO   90  73  92  73 /  20  30  20  10
MIO   88  71  92  71 /  30  40  10  10
F10   91  73  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
HHW   91  74  96  74 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07


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