National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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FXUS64 KTSA 031543
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...

DENSE FOG SLOW TO LIFT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE NOTED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...AND CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO EXPECTATION THAT A
FURTHER EXTENSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED. ONCE
THE FOG/CLOUDINESS DECREASES...THE WARMUP WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ALSO. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT
SOON...MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES
FORTHCOMING TO CLEAN UP THE FOG/SKY WORDING ONCE IT LIFTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ALL SITES...WITH VISIBILITIES RUNNING AROUND A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT
AREAWIDE BETWEEN 15Z-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY CHOCTAW PUSHMATAHA
LEFLORE SEBASTIAN  FRANKLIN COUNTIES.  REST FROM 12Z
THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY TO SET THE STAGE
FOR AMPLE COLD AIR BELOW ABOUT 850 LEVEL.  MEANWHILE
WARM LAYER REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR  PROLONGED MIX
PRECIP EVENT. ALL MODEL TEMP PROFILES INDICATE LARGE
SUB-FREEZING  LOWER LAYER  WHICH COULD PRODUCE  MORE
SLEET  THAN THIS AREA HAS SEEN IN SOME TIME.  PRECIP
WILL COME MAINLY IN  TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS  WITH ABOUT
A 4 TO 8 HOUR  BREAK IN BETWEEN PRECIP OR JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS DURING THAT PERIOD.  THIS BREAK NECESSITATED
AN UNUSUALLY LONG WATCH PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE HIGH IN COLD AIR AND MIXED PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE ALSO  RATHER HIGH  THAT A MAJORITY WATCH
AREA WILL BE  CONVERTED TO A WARNING  AT SOME POINT.
CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH REGARDING TIMING / TRANSITION
FROM ONE PRECIP TYPE TO NEXT. THUS FORECAST SNOW ICE
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SHAKY.  AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 PRIMARILY SLEET-> SNOW WHERE FOUR PLUS
INCHES SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION LIKELY. FAR SOUTHEAST
OK INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. AND
EVERYTHING GOES BETWEEN I-44 AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.

UNSEASONABLY COLD  BEHIND THIS WINTER MESS WITH COLD
WEATHER LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ076.

AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ020-
     ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
