Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 242102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE...WHILE SMALL SCALE MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TRAILS WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF BOTH FEATURES. A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ACROSS AS THE FORCING PASSES...WITH THE DRYING TREND
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE SWATHS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
FURTHER WEST...RAINFALL RATES REMAIN STRONG BENEATH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. DESPITE THE LESSER PRECIP TOTALS...CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
WANES...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
STANDING WATER AND ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MONDAY.

A COMPACT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN TX DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE.
THIS EVENTUAL COMPLEX WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY PASSING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. THIS WILL FURTHER WORSEN THE
FLOOD CONDITIONS AND PORTIONS OF THE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONT
LIKELY MOVING INTO NE OK WHILE FORCING ALOFT REMAINS WEAK. THIS IS
LIKELY TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE ANY PRECIP THOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THOUGH DETAILS WILL HAVE TO AWAIT LATER
FORECASTS. BY LATE WEEK MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IN PROXIMITY. THIS
WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMTS SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  81  63  81 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   65  81  64  82 /  70  50  70  30
MLC   65  78  63  81 /  30  50  50  20
BVO   59  81  60  81 /  40  20  30  20
FYV   61  78  62  78 /  70  30  70  30
BYV   62  80  63  79 /  80  20  90  30
MKO   61  79  62  81 /  50  40  50  20
MIO   60  80  62  80 /  60  30  60  20
F10   62  79  62  80 /  30  40  50  20
HHW   66  78  64  82 /  40  80  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....07




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.