Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 072101
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
301 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surge of colder air continues to overspread the area...with
stronger northeasterly flow and steady/slowing falling temps noted
across NE OK/NW AR. The more significant bands of wintry precip
have stayed across parts of SE KS/SW MO this afternoon...although
have seen several reports of ongoing flurries/light snow. Still
not out of the question to see a dusting through this
evening...but relative dry low-levels and the lack of significant
moisture in the dendritic growth zone will keep amounts light.

Cold surface high pressure builds south tomorrow into tomorrow
night...with the very chilly conditions continuing. Highs Thursday
will struggle back into the 30s...and expect temps to bottom out
Friday morning. Expect teens areawide by Friday morning...and a
few single digit lows may occur near the KS border. A moderating
trend will commence Friday and (especially) Saturday as the
surface high exits east and southerly low-level flow returns.

The very broad cyclonic upper flow will remain across much of the
country through the weekend and into next week. This basic
synoptic pattern is favorable for periodic surges of colder
air...although the latest extended models are struggling with the
timing. Have leaned some toward the faster GFS with the next cold
front by Sunday (which is about 12-24 hours faster than the
ECMWF). There should be sufficient moisture return for areas of
light rain ahead of the system...with a light wintry mix possible
Sunday night for NE OK and NW AR...although accumulations (if any)
appear minimal at this time.

Another...potentially stronger...surge of cold air appears likely
by mid-week. Will go with a blended approach for now...combining
the faster ECMWF (Tuesday fropa) and slower GFS (Wednesday fropa).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  33  13  37 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   27  38  18  40 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   24  35  15  40 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   16  31  10  34 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   19  32  11  36 /  30   0   0   0
BYV   19  31  15  35 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   21  35  14  38 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   17  31  12  33 /  30   0   0   0
F10   22  35  14  37 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   28  38  20  42 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.