Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 131125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017


Areas of rain and scattered thunder across far ern OK and nw AR this
morning resulting in IFR cigs and at times LIFR vsbys at the AR
TAF sites. Rain should begin to taper off when at that time vsbys
should improve to VFR. IFR/MVFR cigs to prevail for most of the
remaining TAF period...with a period of VFR cigs from late
afternoon through late evening. Coverage of additional development
after this morning is expected to remain too limited for TAF


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/


Bands of elevated convection are continuing across the region this
morning, to the north of a stalled front over northern TX. One of
the heavier bands is dropping locally heavy rainfall along the
Canadian and lower Arkansas river valleys and is shifting slowly
east toward the FSM area. Will contemplate an expansion to the
flash flood watch to cover areas along the more intense band of
elevated convection. This activity should shift east by midday
with low rain chances in the afternoon. After a break during the
evening hours, some more elevated activity is possible after
midnight. A convective complex that is forecast to initiate over
the high Plains this afternoon and shift southeast overnight is
expected to remain west of our area.

The boundary over northern TX will retreat north Monday into
Tuesday, with continued scattered thunder chances. Another
boundary will make a push into the region Wednesday and Thursday,
with another MCS possible Thursday night into Friday. It appears
that this stretch of unsettled weather will persist thru this
upcoming work week. High temperatures will climb to the low 90s in
some spots, and with high humidity it will start to feel a little
more like summer than we have of late.

Rising mid level heights may bring an end to this unseasonable
stretch of weather by next weekend.



OK...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053-072-

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ019-020-029.



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