Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191725
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES. INCREASING LOW LVL WARM ADV TNGT WILL LOWER
CIGS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHRA...POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLD
TSRA...ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR AFT 03Z THRU ROUGHLY 15Z MONDAY
MORNING. NW AR SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MON MORNING.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO REACH INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RISES ALREADY SEEN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER IS SLIDING EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH TIME...AND THUS SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED. THE LATEST
HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GET GOING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG AT KFYV
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO ADDED AT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AS WEAK IMPULSE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN ZONE OF MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL AS WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  78 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   52  75  55  76 /  10  20  10  10
MLC   53  76  56  79 /  10  20  10  10
BVO   52  79  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
FYV   48  74  47  73 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   50  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20
MKO   51  77  55  77 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   52  74  53  74 /  30  20  20  20
F10   53  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   53  77  56  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...30





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