Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 020248
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
948 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of light rain in a narrow band continues to spread
into parts of eastern OK this evening, likely in the vicinity of
850mb frontal zone that stretches just south of I-44. This area
will see the highest rain chances through early tonight with only
light amounts expected. Aside from that the forecast for tonight
looks reasonable with a limited threat of thunder later tonight
across far southeast OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.

Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.

The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.

Lacy

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  65  45  72 /  60  10   0  10
FSM   52  69  47  71 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   50  66  44  71 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   46  65  40  72 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   47  63  39  67 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   48  63  42  67 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   48  65  44  71 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   47  63  41  70 /  40  20  10   0
F10   48  65  44  71 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   54  70  46  72 /  30  30   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14



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