Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 121136
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
536 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A back door cold front is expected to move through Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas today...with winds becoming
northerly. A few low clouds could possibly reach into far
Northeast Oklahoma this morning...otherwise few to broken high
clouds should remain common through the majority of the TAF
period. VFR conditions should persist through the period for all
TAF locations.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
lee of the Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest AR early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest AR. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western AR. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest AR.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  20  44  34 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   58  27  45  30 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   58  27  48  36 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   50  19  42  30 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   51  18  41  25 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   49  16  36  23 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   53  24  44  33 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   47  15  38  28 /   0   0   0  10
F10   54  24  45  36 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   64  31  50  35 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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