Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 270441
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA
TAF SITES AROUND 15-18Z AND THE KMLC/KFSM TAF SITES AFTER
22Z. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATES SLOWLY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN MOST AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD AND HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE LEFT AS IS...THOUGH SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY
FALL SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH. NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA
TAF SITES AROUND 15-18Z AND THE KMLC/KFSM TAF SITES AFTER
22Z. MAY SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL SEE ONE MORE HOT DAY SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES. THE COOL WEATHER WILL THEN HANG AROUND FOR
AN EXTENDED STAY. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL KEEP THE HEAT HEADLINES
AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SUNDAY DUE TO AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CANCEL THE HEADLINES. TO THE SOUTH OF
TULSA...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE 105 WILL
STILL BE LIKELY.

AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE SOUTH DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...EVEN THIS FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BUT PRECIPITATION BY THAT TIME IS MORE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AND LIKELY BEYOND.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  96  70  89 /   0  30  20   0
FSM   74  98  73  89 /   0  40  30  10
MLC   76  97  72  89 /   0  10  30  10
BVO   74  94  66  88 /   0  20  10   0
FYV   73  93  65  85 /   0  40  20   0
BYV   74  93  65  84 /  10  40  10   0
MKO   75  96  70  88 /   0  40  30  10
MIO   75  93  66  86 /  10  20  10   0
F10   75  97  71  88 /   0  30  30  10
HHW   75  97  74  89 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ059-
     OKZ060.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18





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