Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 192341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
541 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR conditions will prevail at KBVO until a warm front moves north
of there by around 05Z. Otherwise, VFR to occasional MVFR ceilings
will prevail this evening, with MVFR ceilings prevailing after
06Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at just
about any time, with the timing at any one site very difficult to
pinpoint. Showers and storms will become more widespread Tuesday
as a strong cold front moves south across the area, with
widespread rain continuing well behind the front. Gusty south
winds will shift to the north following the passage of the front
Tuesday. LLWS will be mentioned at KFSM overnight tonight into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently located near a OKC/BVO line is expected to
stall by late afternoon/early evening and begin moving back north as
a warm front. A narrow corridor of modest surface based instability
has developed along/just ahead of boundary across northeast Oklahoma
with CAPE values running around 1000 J/KG. Any storms that develop
near front this afternoon/evening could be marginally severe with
wind/hail, including a limited tornado threat given the strong low
level wind fields present.

More widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms are expected by
Tuesday morning as the cold front pushes back south into northeast
Oklahoma. Precipitable water values remain off the chart high for this
time of year with some areas already approaching 1.5 inches. Locally
heavy rainfall is expected as the front slowly progress through the
area during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread 2 to
4 inch rainfall totals expected with locally higher amounts possible.
Will therefore go ahead and issue a flash flood watch for portions
of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, generally south of
I-44, starting Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday
night. The heavier rainfall should begin to shift southeast of the
area Wednesday morning. Still a chance precipitation could
transition to freezing rain Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning however it appears at this time that accumulations should
remain relatively low. If temperatures drop below freezing quick
enough across far northwest Arkansas that area could have a little
better chance for some ice accumulations.

Very active weather pattern will continue for much of the week with
multiple chances for heavy rainfall. Another upper trough will dig
into the southern Rockies on Thursday with a strong upper jet
streak lifting northeast into the Central plains. Areas of rain
with embedded thunderstorms will spread into eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Frontal
boundary stalls over the region Friday into Saturday with a continue
chance for heavy rainfall as showers/thunderstorms train over the
same areas. The ground will likely already be saturated and therefore
a significant threat for flash flooding/river flooding appears
likely.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     OKZ049-053-058-062-063-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05


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