Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 011521
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1021 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR TODAY
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. DECAYING STORM COMPLEX OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WHILE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. LIGHT EASTERN WINDS WILL
PERSIST...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PREVALENT TODAY AND THIS WILL
MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY LATER THIS
WEEK AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT ACROSS NW OKLAHOMA
THROUGH CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WHILE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST...NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT SUCH A PATTERN COULD SET
UP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.

WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE AND
SOME SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TO BE PRESENT BY THAT
TIME. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...00Z GFS DOES SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE NW
FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST JUST BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  60  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   79  63  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   78  59  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   76  55  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   75  53  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   73  53  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   79  60  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   75  55  80  63 /  10  10  10  10
F10   77  61  81  66 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   79  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16




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