Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 012352
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers possible across northeast Oklahoma this evening in
association with passing upper wave. Brief MVFR conditions expected
Monday morning across NE OK/NW AR with lower cloud deck, however
ceiling heights are expected to rise back to VFR conditions by noon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
Showers lifting northeast across western OK will graze portions of
NE OK this afternoon. This activity should gradually dissipate
toward 00z as the isentropic lift forcing it weakens. Upper
shortwave trough over AZ/NM will slide northeast across our area
tonight. The 12z GFS/ECMWF and latest runs of the experimental
HRRR bring showers across NE OK tonight along the track of the
system. Farther to the south over west TX...increasing ~800 mb
frontogenetic lift in association with the upper wave will
produce one or more bands of rain and possibly a few lightning
strikes late tonight. This activity will spread northeast along
the frontal surface with the HRRR suggesting that it will clip
southeast OK going into Monday morning. Will carry higher chance
pops along the track of the upper wave up north...and down south
where it is most likely banded precip will occur...and only slight
chance pops in between.
Temperatures through Monday night...highs and lows...will run
roughly 10 degrees below average for this time of year. A warming
trend is expected by midweek...with highs returning to the 80s for
the latter part of the week.
The upper air pattern next week will be characterized by a deep
upper trough over the East and Gulf with a ridge over the Rockies.
Rich Gulf moisture will be scoured out by this pattern...with
tranquil weather expected. The upper features will slowly shift
east...with ridging over the Plains by the end of the week.
Eventually a deep upper trough over the West will eventually move
into the Plains early next week...and this will be our next chance
of storms. The moisture quality this system will have to work with
will not be as good as what we saw the last week of April however.
This may mitigate the overall severe potential.