Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 231017
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
417 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The shallow cold airmass across the area continues to be very slow
to erode from east to west, and this will continue to be the case
through Saturday morning. Another area of rain and isolated
thunderstorms is spreading back north into far southeast Oklahoma
at this time, and this trend will continue, with widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms expected area wide by later
this afternoon into this evening.

Rain coverage will diminish some from the west later this evening
and overnight, but with the approach of the main upper level
system Saturday morning, widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms will once again develop during the morning hours
before ending during the afternoon as a Pacific cold front sweeps
across the area. Some strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible Saturday, with hail being the main threat as the storms
will mostly remain elevated. Far southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas may be close enough to the true warm sector for
storms to be rooted closer to the boundary layer, and if so, a
greater severe weather risk may develop in this area. We believe
the GFS is way overdone with the deepening surface cyclone given
the shallow cold airmass remaining stubborn, and the much weaker
solutions from most other models are preferred. As a result, wind
speeds will remain more modest Saturday afternoon. The shift to a
more westerly component will finally scour out the shallow cold
air however.

With the shallow cold airmass finally gone, temperatures will warm
nicely Sunday through much of next week. Another storm system will
bring shower and thunderstorm chances around midweek, but overall
warmer and quieter weather will prevail next week compared to what
we have seen the past few days.

Went on the colder side of guidance for high temperatures today
and Saturday with the shallow cold air remaining stubborn.
Guidance lows look reasonable the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  42  55  27 /  90  80  80   0
FSM   52  51  63  34 / 100  90  90  10
MLC   46  46  61  31 / 100  90  90   0
BVO   44  39  53  24 /  80  80  60  10
FYV   51  49  60  28 / 100  90  80  10
BYV   51  48  60  32 /  90  90  80  10
MKO   46  45  59  30 / 100  90  90   0
MIO   47  43  55  27 /  80  90  60  10
F10   44  44  59  30 / 100  90  90   0
HHW   52  51  65  35 / 100  80 100  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ049-053-075-076.

AR...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ARZ020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

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