379
FXUS64 KTSA 080214
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
914 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

   - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week
     with higher chances through Tuesday and again next weekend.

   - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms
     will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and
     gusty winds.

   - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-105F range toward
     the latter half of next week, with a weak cold front
     possible by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A compact mid level low located over central/eastern Oklahoma was
slowly moving eastward as of mid evening. At the same time, a deep
moisture plume from the Texas Gulf coast, resided across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The combination of these features
along with continued elevated instability were allowing for
scattered showers and convection to remain ongoing across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. With the movement of
the compact low and marginal flow aloft, slower storm motions were
creating areas of heavy rainfall and a localized flood potential.

Overnight tonight, the mid level compact low and its associated
wind shift is expected to continue its eastward path into
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by 12z Tuesday. With the
disturbance holding over the region tonight, will continue shower
and thunderstorm chances mainly along and east of the associated
wind shift south/east of Interstate 44 through northwest Arkansas.
There could be an uptick in coverage toward sunrise Tuesday
morning and will carry slightly higher PoPs for that time period.
A locally heavy rain threat will remain overnight with the deep
moisture plume across the eastern half of the CWA. Also with the
moisture in place , temperatures tonight look to remain in the
70s for most locations.

For the evening update, have adjusted PoPs based on the mentioned
above and the movement of the compact low. Also, have tweaked
hourly temp/dewpoint trends for tonight to account for latest obs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The upper level high over the Desert Southwest will shift
slightly to the northwest and strengthen over the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, the tail end of an upper level trough will clip the
area Tuesday as its parent low passes well to the north. With
modest instability, deep moisture, and slightly improved wind
shear, a few lines of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but a
couple of storms may produce marginally severe wind. Areas of very
heavy rainfall may occur, but at this time significant flooding
is not expected. Storm activity may continue into Wednesday,
especially for SE Oklahoma and NW Arkansas, before diminishing.
Highs the next two days will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with
lows in the lower 70s.

Shortwave ridging builds in Thursday with a mostly dry day outside
of a few very isolated diurnal showers. Temperatures will warm into
the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices of 95-105F. Friday
will also be quite warm, but ensemble guidance is in good agreement
that showers and storms will increase by late in the day, with
several rounds of showers and storms through the weekend.
Temperatures will drop back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with
ensemble guidance keeping any extreme summer heat away from the area
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Near persistent pattern through the forecast period. Ongoing
showers and storms gradually wane by late evening with VFR
conditions prevailing. Brief light fog could develop given the
rainfall footprint but confidence is low. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms develop again on Tuesday with potential flight
level impacts primarily during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  92  72  92 /  80  30  30  10
FSM   75  91  74  93 /  60  60  30  30
MLC   74  90  71  91 /  40  50  30  20
BVO   70  91  69  91 /  60  40  30  10
FYV   70  88  69  88 /  50  60  30  30
BYV   69  89  69  88 /  40  60  30  30
MKO   73  89  72  91 /  60  40  30  20
MIO   71  88  70  90 /  40  40  30  20
F10   72  89  71  92 /  60  40  30  20
HHW   73  90  72  92 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07