Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 262307
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD
AT ALL AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST HEAT INDICES WERE REACHING CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RUN THEIR
COURSE. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DAYTIME HEATING BEING LIFTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH THESE PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A STRONG WIND GUST.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AND SET
UP OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ONE POSITIVE IS THAT EACH DAY DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE KEEPING HEAT INDICES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES...POSSIBLY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY... WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL HOLD OFF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TONIGHT WILL RE-EVALUATE WITH LATEST DATA TO
DETERMINE IF/WHERE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DOMINATING RIDGE OVER
THE REGION INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK WHILE A WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CWA. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAT. WITH THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD RETREAT BACK WESTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
COULD RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...10


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