Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 192339
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Current VFR conditions will deteriorate late Tonight into Thursday
as showers and thunderstorms spread into the area in association with
a cold front.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 428 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A windy, warm and humid day across the region with warm air
advection ramping up ahead of a cold front moving across western
Kansas. Lower cloud cover will hang around all day with moist low-
level air streaming northward. This will set the stage for line of
severe convection to develop along the front as it approaches
central/northeast KS late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather
will remain well north of the CWA where greatest upper level support
resides. This convection will merge into a line and progress
southeast with time. Hi-res models have this line approaching the
CWA early tomorrow morning. No severe weather is expected with this
line as it will weaken considerably as it nears the area.

Attention then turns towards towards Thursday and Friday as front
settles near the I-40 corridor. Models have wobbled this front a bit
back and forth over the last several days, but generally it looks
like it will move a tad bit north Thursday afternoon/evening and
settle just south of I-44. A vigorous PacNorthwest wave will drop
south through the central Rockies then eject out onto the Southern
Plains by Friday. With 30- 40 kt 850mb jet overriding the
stationary front, and abundant low- and mid-level moisture
transport, showers and thunderstorms will develop and heavy rain
concerns will increase. Heaviest rainfall amounts look to occur
Friday afternoon with rain tapering off overnight Friday. By the
end of the event, a good area of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas will likely see 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, however,
wouldn`t be surprised if several locations see some higher amounts.
Given recent rainfall over this same area less than a week ago,
soils have not had a chance to dry out and flooding is a concern
-- both flash and river flooding. Soils will saturate quickly and
most of the rainfall will run off. Rivers and streams will also
rise increasing chances for river flooding. Thus, a Flood Watch
has been issued and is in effect from late Thursday night through
Friday night.

Friday is additionally complicated with chances for strong to severe
storms as the cold front sweeps in from the west. Given the ongoing
convection, the potential for severe storms is further complicated.
However, with 1500-1800 J/kg progged for eastern Oklahoma late
Friday afternoon, could at least see some strong storms.

A few showers along the Kansas/Oklahoma border Saturday morning as
they wrap around the backside of the low. These should gradually end
by late Saturday morning as the upper low moves into eastern
Missouri. Temperatures on Saturday will be rather cool, but a
gradual warming trend will start Sunday and continue through
midweek. Precip chances look to hold off through early next week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for
     OKZ054>070.

AR...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10



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