Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 170504
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1204 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Line of showers and storms has weakened considerably from a few
hours ago, with outflow boundary well ahead of rain. Just light
showers are expected across NE Oklahoma. MVFR conditions will be
possible mainly at the NW Arkansas terminals over the next 2-3
hours, where ceilings/visibility may drop within heavy rain
areas. Otherwise, patchy fog may be possible at KBVO or KRVS
toward sunrise, with clearing expected from northwest to
southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 833 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms continue to push into
northeast Oklahoma this evening with the threat for damaging winds
of 60-70 mph. Strongest cell moving through the Ralston area,
which is likely producing wind damage along leading edge of cold
pool. Convection should begin to slowly weaken as line approaches
the I-44 corridor where surface instability drops off. It appears
that band of storms is narrow and moving fast enough to not create
a significant threat for flooding at this time. Will continue to
monitor for now, but may be able to drop portions of the flash
flood watch depending on latest radar trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  92  70  89 /  80  10  20  30
FSM   76  90  72  90 /  70  40  10  40
MLC   76  91  73  90 /  90  30  20  30
BVO   69  90  65  89 /  20  10  20  30
FYV   72  86  64  85 / 100  30  10  40
BYV   72  87  64  89 /  70  30  10  30
MKO   72  90  70  88 /  90  20  20  40
MIO   70  87  65  88 /  70  10  10  30
F10   70  90  71  90 /  90  10  20  30
HHW   77  91  74  91 /  80  50  20  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ060>072.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI


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