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000
FXUS64 KTSA 082123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES OR PATCHY FZDZ PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION IN THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE LIFT AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP. THE COLUMN
IS DRY ABOVE 850MB...SO ANYTHING THAT FALLS THIS EVENING WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. RAP/NAM GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT QPF IN
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/NEB ATTM.
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT
UPPER PV MAX WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS SYSTEM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE EJECTING
WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH QG LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NW ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MID LVL COLD FN FORCING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET WILL FOCUS A BAND OF PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SIGNAL FOR A FEW DAYS...AND HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD WITH THEIR QPF FORECASTS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
LIFT THAT WILL BE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND ALSO SHOW SOME
SLANTWISE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MID LVL FN ZONE. THUS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK HITTING MODERATE SNOW EVENT WITH THE MOST
FAVORED TIME WINDOW BTWN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
HIGH FLUFF FACTOR TO THE SNOW...I BASED SNOW AMOUNTS ON A 15:1
RATIO SO IT WILL MAKE THE MOST OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE IT HAS TO
WORK WITH. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW IF THIS
TREND HOLDS UP.

AFTER THAT SYSTEM DEPARTS...THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS OF QUIET
WEATHER BEFORE A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS APPROACH US FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS
SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM SW TO NE DURING THAT TIME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM GOES BY. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE
SOME FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET AS TEMPS START THE EVENT
RIGHT AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. EVERYONE SHOULD BE RAIN BY LATER
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...SO THIS EVENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A
BIG DEAL.

AFTER STARTING OUT THE WEEK NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING...THE THAW WILL
BE ON AS A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
THE TAP OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SHUT OFF. 40S WILL BE MORE COMMON
FOR HIGHS DURING THIS TIME.

LACY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   20  29  20  35 /  10  20  60  10
FSM   26  36  26  39 /   0  10  20  10
MLC   22  34  22  38 /   0  10  20  10
BVO   18  28  16  35 /   0  20  60  10
FYV   21  31  19  35 /  10  10  30  10
BYV   21  30  19  35 /  10  10  30  10
MKO   21  31  21  36 /   0  10  40  10
MIO   18  27  18  34 /  10  10  60  10
F10   21  31  21  36 /   0  20  40  10
HHW   24  38  25  39 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30