Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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949
FXUS64 KTSA 072345
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
545 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail at the northeast Oklahoma and far
northwest Arkansas sites, although a few snow flurries will remain
possible this evening. Skies will clear from north to south later
tonight. At KMLC and KFSM, MVFR to IFR conditions with occasional
drizzle this evening will improve to VFR later tonight, with
clouds clearing by Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surge of colder air continues to overspread the area...with
stronger northeasterly flow and steady/slowing falling temps noted
across NE OK/NW AR. The more significant bands of wintry precip
have stayed across parts of SE KS/SW MO this afternoon...although
have seen several reports of ongoing flurries/light snow. Still
not out of the question to see a dusting through this
evening...but relative dry low-levels and the lack of significant
moisture in the dendritic growth zone will keep amounts light.

Cold surface high pressure builds south tomorrow into tomorrow
night...with the very chilly conditions continuing. Highs Thursday
will struggle back into the 30s...and expect temps to bottom out
Friday morning. Expect teens areawide by Friday morning...and a
few single digit lows may occur near the KS border. A moderating
trend will commence Friday and (especially) Saturday as the
surface high exits east and southerly low-level flow returns.

The very broad cyclonic upper flow will remain across much of the
country through the weekend and into next week. This basic
synoptic pattern is favorable for periodic surges of colder
air...although the latest extended models are struggling with the
timing. Have leaned some toward the faster GFS with the next cold
front by Sunday (which is about 12-24 hours faster than the
ECMWF). There should be sufficient moisture return for areas of
light rain ahead of the system...with a light wintry mix possible
Sunday night for NE OK and NW AR...although accumulations (if any)
appear minimal at this time.

Another...potentially stronger...surge of cold air appears likely
by mid-week. Will go with a blended approach for now...combining
the faster ECMWF (Tuesday fropa) and slower GFS (Wednesday fropa).

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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