Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171752
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/VFR conditions will exist this afternoon and evening as cloud
deck has been stubborn to erode. However, the far western edge
of this deck has finally begun to erode late this morning.
Terminals across western Arkansas will likely see continued cloud
cover through much of the prevailing period. A bit of light fog
continues at KFYV but this is expected to disappear within the
next several hours. Southerly winds will remain gusty through the
afternoon...veering around to northwesterly late tonight as a
strong cold front moves through. Winds behind the front are
expected to range from 30 to 35 mph...with gusts of 40 to near 50
mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1103 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Winds have quickly increased this morning, despite low-level cloud
deck continuing to remain across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas. The cloud deck is slowly trying to erode, but will
likely have portions of the deck lingering into the afternoon and
evening, especially across northwest Arkansas. Locations along
and west of Hwy 75 will scatter out over the next few hours.

Pressure gradient will continue to increase late this morning and
afternoon in response to height falls across the High Plains. As a
result to this, and higher momentum winds mixing down from
800-850mb, winds of 20 to 30 mph...gusting 35 to near 40 will be
common for much of the day.

Other concerns today focus on fire weather conditions late this
afternoon, especially west of Hwy 75 where relative humidities
are expected to drop into the 40s and lower 50s. The combination
of winds, cured fuels, near record temperatures, and lower
relative humidity values will increase fire ignition and spread
concerns into the early evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  50  58  33 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   75  60  63  37 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   77  56  62  34 /  20   0  10   0
BVO   78  47  57  29 /  20  10  10   0
FYV   69  57  57  30 /  20  10  20   0
BYV   69  58  58  35 /  20  10  20   0
MKO   77  54  60  34 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   74  51  56  32 /  20  10  20   0
F10   78  53  60  34 /  20   0  10   0
HHW   76  62  66  35 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....11



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