Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 191552
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
952 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Low clouds and patchy fog continue across most of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas, with the exceptions being a few areas in far
northeast and east central Oklahoma where drier above surface air
resides. While a good portion of eastern Oklahoma should remain at
least mostly cloudy through the day, some erosion on the eastern
edge of the cloud deck is likely to occur, allowing for a good
warm up for portions of the forecast area that do see a few hours
of sun this afternoon. Areas that remain in the clouds or that
see only an hour or so of sun will be a couple of degrees cooler
than the going forecast. Cloudiness is likely to increase once
again from west to east late this afternoon and into the evening
as the anticipated showers/thunderstorms approach from the west.
Thunderstorm potential remains highest during the evening hours,
with perhaps a few showers as early as late afternoon. Instability
continues to look limited this far east, limiting the severe
storm potential.

Main changes to the forecast include an increase in cloud cover
this morning and into mid afternoon, a slight decrease in the high
temperatures beneath the persistent cloud cover, and a delay in
POPs until after 21Z. Updates already out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor shows a strong upper level storm system
now moving east of Baja. This upper trough will move toward the
southern Plains this afternoon, providing the forcing for showers
and thunderstorms across Oklahoma and Texas by tonight.

Skies cleared out last night just before sunset and this allowed
strong radiational cooling to occur. Temperatures bottomed out in
northeast Oklahoma in the upper 30s to lower 40s early this
morning and areas of dense fog have developed across portions of
the area. We elected not to issue a dense fog advisory given the
varying nature of the observations. It is mentioned in the zones
and hazardous weather outlook.

Temperatures today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday
as winds become more southerly and lose some of the upslope
component. There has been a low deck of clouds across southeast
Oklahoma but overall there should be less low clouds than
Saturday. High clouds associated with the warm conveyor of the
approaching system are already spreading across western Oklahoma.

The better instability and forcing remain west of the area
today...so any (significant) precipitation is not expected til
this evening. The threat of severe weather is quite
limited...given that any storms affecting eastern Oklahoma tonight
will likely be elevated. The entire area is expected to receive
rain tonight through Monday...with precipitation ending from west
to east by Monday night.

The rest of the week will be quite warm with temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s. Fire weather hazards will ramp up on Wed- Fri
with increasing winds and temperatures running 20+ degrees above
normal.

The next frontal system will approach by late Thursday into
Friday. This looks like a strong winter storm for the Upper
Midwest, but for our area, it will just mean increased fire
weather concerns.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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